And by the way if someone could ask her the author & name of the paper claiming a bayesian model "to achieve a 98% probability that and so forth and so on..." I wanted to check if I had the eyes to see their calculus gross approximations Just wanted this as an exercise in #bayesian #statistics

I asked her to sum me up the different parameters of the bayesian calculus: to see if she knew what she was expert about 98% that pretty serious for a probability:-) If it is 98%+/-50%, that makes a range [49%;147%] which falls right into D. Trump+M. Pompeo pre-prepared narrative incertitudes