馃搸馃惛ZhSigma@332ppm鈮呂,x鈭圫={馃尡馃挌馃嚜馃嚭位P(胃|y)鈦倉learn-languages-world-lifeA #covid #professionaldisinformer (the probability is super high) has blocked me:
And by the way if someone could ask her the author & name of the paper claiming a bayesian model "to achieve a 98% probability that and so forth and so on..."
I wanted to check if I had the eyes to see their calculus gross approximations
Just wanted this as an exercise in #bayesian #statistics
I asked her to sum me up the different parameters of the bayesian calculus: to see if she knew what she was expert about
98% that pretty serious for a probability:-)
If it is 98%+/-50%, that makes a range [49%;147%] which falls right into D. Trump+M. Pompeo pre-prepared narrative incertitudes
Yes, that was Mike's Pompeo narrative at the time...
I will have to check the details of the calculus as the article is detailed: www.nber.org/system/files...
My approach is STILL biased by the works on zoonosis & the frequency of the phenomenon of gene exchanges in infected cells
When I look precisely to this bayesian calculus that will be my focus
nber.org/system/files/w...
nber.org/system/files/w...
Before diving in the calculus, I will have to find the paper published in the recent years, the article I am refering too
IIRC, it's about bats, in south-east asia, maybe cambodia, where gene exchage were so frequent, they named them after the root casual- or banal- or common- ...it was striking
I will have to read:
- www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
- academic.oup.com/gbe/article/...
- www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Don't know how long it will take
I will have to skim the content
Or find precisely that sequence name
I don't know if it was the codon itself: I not expert at all
The recency and geographical o...
The recency and geographical o...
I still bet on
casual-*
banal-*
common-*
Let's try google.schoolars
BANAL-* seems to reveal content. I have BANAL-52 here:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
BANAL-103 there: europepmc.org/article/ppr/...
There it is about BANAL-236: arxiv.org/abs/2112.06141
But again I am not expert!
They choose the name BANAL to express how so frequent the episode is indeed
Recombination-aware phylogenet...
Recombination-aware phylogenet...
Recombination-aware phylogenetic analysis sheds light on the evolutionary origin of SARS-CoV-2 - Scientific Reports
SARS-CoV-2 can infect human cells through the recognition of the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor. This affinity is given by six amino acid residues located in the variable loop of the receptor binding domain (RBD) within the Spike protein. Genetic recombination involving bat and pangolin Sarbecoviruses, and natural selection have been proposed as possible explanations for the acquisition of the variable loop and these amino acid residues. In this study we employed Bayesian phylogenetics to jointly reconstruct the phylogeny of the RBD among human, bat and pangolin Sarbecoviruses and detect recombination events affecting this region of the genome. A recombination event involving RaTG13, the closest relative of SARS-CoV-2 that lacks five of the six residues, and an unsampled Sarbecovirus lineage was detected. This result suggests that the variable loop of the RBD didn鈥檛 have a recombinant origin and the key amino acid residues were likely present in the common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13, with the latter losing five of them probably as the result of recombination.
I have to do all the reading of all those articles, so as to justify my position against a microbiologist that just simply refuses to approach the subject of gene recombination, by not being able to use this language at all
That what seems suspicious to me: she was not able to speak "genes"
...