Dare Obasanjo

Even if Michael Burry is right that there’s an AI bubble, it feels like the wrong near term bet to short Nvidia.

During a gold rush, it’s obvious that not every prospector will get rich but it would also be unwise to bet the company selling picks & shovels would fail first.

Dec 7 at 3:12amWeb
Show threadTiconderogaNo1Dec 7
@carnage4life As always, the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. But for the tariffs, I'd go long on Dollar General.
Show threadshac ron ₪‎Dec 7
@carnage4life Don’t make me defend Michael Burry, but the picks and shovels argument isn’t apt here. Nvidia made plenty of money selling AI hardware and won’t go bankrupt in a bubble burst. The people that will go bankrupt are those betting that it will make even more money, i.e., shareholders. And this will happen early in the case of a bubble collapse because a sudden decline in AI investment is going to cause Nvidia’s stock to collapse.
Show threadJake MillerDec 7
@shac @carnage4life My NVDA question is how it compares in performance per watt. In the US, power is likely to be a major constraint, which will advantage efficiency. The major clouds and model makers all work at scale, which could make custom chips economically viable. Nvidia going from no practical competition to competition with TPUs, Trainium, etc -> market reevaluation of valuation, in my expectation. IOW, do they stay the best picks and shovels for cloud/hyperscalers?
Show threadshac ron ₪‎Dec 7
@jakemiller @carnage4life The theory that custom ASICs are viable has largely been disproven. TPU is the only viable candidate, and it isn’t because of its power per watt ratio.
Show threadhaifischDec 7

@carnage4life well… unwise unless there’s a company selling hydraulic mining equipment around the corner, then that’s the company to double down on imho.

Who’s selling the picks and shovels, and who’s selling dynamite and a steam powered drill… much with any bubble I guess we’ll know when it pops and there’s only a few companies cemented enough to survive.

Show threadFabienDec 7
@carnage4life why do you assume he’s in for the near term?
Show threadMechanical DirkDec 8
@carnage4life What if Nvidia is giving the picks and shovels to mining companies for free, receiving shares in those companies instead?