"Even Carrington would be impressed" 😬

https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=02&month=12&year=2025

Hopefully we just get "someone should check on our satellites" levels of auroras and not "A bunch of open questions in solar-terrestrial physics are about to be answered"

This is blowing up a bit: not trying to scare you all! There is a *gigantic* set of sunspots coming around the limb of the sun, comparable in size to the sunspots sketched by Carrington. They may or may not send some plasma our way. There is also a minor aurora event predicted for 2 days from now due to interactions between an eruption from this sunspot group and previously emitted solar wind/magnetic fields.

ESA has some good info on big solar storms here: https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_weather/Flying_through_the_biggest_solar_storm_ever_recorded

Flying through the biggest solar storm ever recorded

No communication or navigation, faulty electronics and collision risk. At ESA’s mission control in Darmstadt, teams faced a scenario unlike any before: a solar storm of extreme magnitude. Fortunately, this nightmare unfolded not in reality, but as part of the simulation campaign for Sentinel-1D, pushing the boundaries of spacecraft operations and space weather preparedness.

@sundogplanets If we had any way of ensuring that the resulting CMEs only affected LLM systems, eh?

Well, those and the thousands of very LEO objects. Pushing them out of orbit in a plane above or below the solar system plane, rapidly, forever.

@greem @sundogplanets

Oh wouldnt it be grand if all data centres were solar flared into slag? Except for us and our loved ones.

@kevinrns @greem @sundogplanets and the ones I need for banking, calling home, getting food from the supermarket etc.

@econads @greem @sundogplanets

I guess devine intervention is not the way to go. No wonder democracy is so popular.

@sundogplanets The Director General of ESA, Josef Aschbacher, is Austrian! (Ok, irrelevant, but we are a very small country...)
@sundogplanets It's scary, but I made a meme to help me cope and giggle a bit.
@sundogplanets Coincidentally, I'm reading a prepper novel about a Carrington-style event.
@sundogplanets @stevefoerster Mind sharing what novel?

@KevinFreitas @sundogplanets Darkness Begins by Harley Tate. It's the first of a series of nine, and so far like most of these it's very pulpy so I doubt I'll read it all. But I tend to read to shut my brain off at night, and this sort of thing does the job.

I realize that doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement, but it's everything I thought it would be and I'm not complaining.

@stevefoerster @sundogplanets Thx! And totally get it. After reading the Mars trilogy, turning my brain off when reading sounds like sweet relief. Cheers!
@sundogplanets Where are my paper maps?

@sundogplanets

We're all gonna DIE!

(Sorry, Dawn of War voice acting reference.)

@sundogplanets Activity Regions 4294 and 4296 are huge but quiet so far - the X flare came from AR 4299 (ex-4274) which is much smaller. Size doesn't count much when it comes to flare risk, 'delta' magnetic field configurations do.
@sundogplanets time to hide in my secret bunker?
@sundogplanets Clickbait
@marshray It's an exercise put on by scientists to explore what would really happen in this very possible scenario. Not clickbait.

@sundogplanets The headline clearly implies the article is about an actual “recorded” solar storm, and this is not clarified until the end of the first paragraph.

Please forgive me for thinking you were talking about actual sunspots.

@sundogplanets @futzle uh. I am scared.
“coming around the limb of the sun”
Do I understand correctly that this is something which will be pointing directly at us in a bit less than a season?
@thorne @futzle In a few days. The sun's equatorial rotation rate is like 25 days

@sundogplanets

Add to that the full moon on Friday

@sundogplanets

"There is a *gigantic* set of sunspots coming around the limb of the sun...."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Kyi0WNg40

Dramatic Look

YouTube
@sundogplanets "well, this could be exciting" and other phrases you *really* don't want to hear from astrophysicists.
@wordshaper @sundogplanets I just did some checks on the surge arresters in my main switchboard for some reason 🙃
@PatrickHerd should I go figure out what these are and get some?!
@Niall do you have lightning arresters for your solar arrays?
@Niall Worth considering, we had some pine trees blown up by lightning that are at almost the lowest point in our plantation
@sundogplanets That would be quite the Alfvén wave.
@sundogplanets I'm all for answering open questions, but...perhaps not like this?
@sundogplanets some days I think that a Carrington event might be good for us, when I'm feeling particularly cynical about all this technology
@djfiander @sundogplanets A Dora Carrington event or a Leonora Carrington event?
@wdenton @sundogplanets a Lenora Carrington event looks like it might be fun.

@sundogplanets Something wicked this way comes…

(Love Bradbury, so the title just sprung up in my mind)

@sundogplanets

There were credible stories of people getting shocked from telegraph lines and such. Quick question, just in case - in today world, what would a Carrington level event do? What would people be well advised to do in such an event?

@CoastalCoasting @sundogplanets
Hunker under the table and have plenty of food that doesn't rely on electricity. Even since Carrington, there have been power outages.
@CoastalCoasting @sundogplanets Probably short out a lot of the grid infrastructure at the very least.

@CoastalCoasting

Plug your computers, phone chargers, etc into surge protectors. We already know that a Carrington event will cause a surge on long wires (like power lines and telegraph cables). A surge protector will stop it from damaging your equipment (although it may sacrifice itself in the process).

It may be some time before power becomes available again, but if and when it does, your equipment will be intact and uncooked.

@CoastalCoasting

Although this may be futile, because the electromagnetic pulse from a Carrington event may destroy your equipment anyway.

I dunno if it will. I don't think anyone ever actually tried to simulate such a situation, because I'm fairly sure that would involve detonating a nuclear bomb and nobody wants to do that. But it theoretically could.

'90s beige-box computers might have survived by virtue of being encased in grounded metal, but modern computers and phones are not…

@CoastalCoasting

Another problem is that electronic devices talk to each other mostly over electrical signal cables. So if one of them is taken out by a power surge, the surge will probably propagate through those signal cables to every other connected device, even if the other device is otherwise protected from surges.

Entire networks have been taken out by a lightning strike on a run of Ethernet cable, for example.

Perhaps in the future we'll use optical cables for everything instead…

@CoastalCoasting

Some preppers on Reddit had a discussion about this a while back. Might be worth a read.

https://www.reddit.com/r/preppers/comments/118dax8/how_to_prepare_for_a_carrington_event/

@argv_minus_one
Do modern surge protectors work much?

http://dansdata.com/gz039.htm

Power struggle

@noodle

Well, that's alarming.

I knew common surge protectors have a limited lifespan because the MOVs can only take so many surges before they permanently fail.

But I was not aware that the things would straight-up lie about whether their MOVs have failed.

@argv_minus_one In finding this I learnt that Dan Rutter ran a crypto fintech and lost a lot of his own money. He was a great tech journalist and capitalism can get in the bin for this misallocation of resources.
@sundogplanets I've been watching ever since Perseverance took this pic of the sunspots before they rotated around for our viewing pleasure.
@sundogplanets As they say, Carrington is sharrington wood heat in the winter because the power grid is down.