ProPublica

What the U.S. Government Is Dismissing That Could Seed a Bird Flu Pandemic
---

To combat bird flu spread, other countries have authorized poultry vaccines. The U.S. hasn’t, amid political and economic pushback. Without a vaccine, experts say the virus poses an escalating threat: “The minute it transmits to humans, it’s done.”
https://www.propublica.org/article/bird-flu-airborne-usda-pandemic?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mastodon-post

#News #BirdFlu #Pandemic #Health #PublicHealth #Agriculture

What the U.S. Government Is Dismissing That Could Seed a Bird Flu Pandemic

Egg producers suspect bird flu is traveling through the air. After a disastrous Midwestern outbreak early this year, we tested that theory and found that where the wind blew, the virus followed. Vaccines could help, but the USDA hasn’t approved them.

ProPublica
Nov 18 at 4:50pmWeb
Show threadProPublicaNov 18

Egg producers suspect bird flu is traveling through the air.

The USDA didn’t test the theory after a disastrous Midwestern outbreak. Here’s how we did.
https://www.propublica.org/article/methodology-bird-flu-outbreak-ohio-indiana?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mastodon-post

#News #Data #Research #Science #Health #PublicHealth #BirdFlu

How ProPublica Investigated a Bird Flu Outbreak in America’s Heartland

Early this year, bird flu ripped through 80 farms in Ohio and Indiana. Using genetic markers, wind simulations, satellite imagery, property records and more, we found that the virus could’ve been airborne.

ProPublica
Show threadgaryNov 18
@ProPublica why do u have to test - this is a known fact - see covid
Show threadsuzanneNov 19
@gary_alderson @ProPublica
Because Covid and flu are caused by different viruses that don't necessarily spread exactly the same way. In order to know for sure you have to prove it. Flu has been thought to spread more on things rather than through the air.
Show threadWesDymNov 28

@gary_alderson Technically, nearly all pathogens are potentially 'airborne', if you ignore survivability. But most viruses are short-lived outside a host, and so they're not considered airborne unless they're UNUSUALLY survivable -- long enough to survive travelling a long distance. So far, bird flu (and SARS-CoV-2, too) has not demonstrated that unusual survivability.

Aerosol transmission, while technically airborne, is not considered the same thing, for lack of long-distance propagation.

Show threadAdam MurkowskiNov 18

@ProPublica this is amazing. I was emphasizing about the data hoops and chuckled at the end.

I would suggest these changes to USDA's initial response to bird flu. The unique mutations from Howe's Hens are key. When bird flu is first detected in an area feed Genlab data into Nexstrain in a deliberate attempt to find an unique identifier/mutations. You don't know if this is farm zero. Thus, backtracking if it is not farm zero will help you paramatize models, response(s), etc. 1/

Show threadAdam MurkowskiNov 18
@ProPublica These will be important as we paramatize model,etc. In next steps. Also not to say/forget it came from somewhere.
Show threadEdelruth, PBS Passport HolderNov 18

@ProPublica

Excellent article.

"A poultry vaccine likely would have stemmed the damage from this outbreak, experts told me."

Interesting. This is the second time I have seen this point made today. Outbreak control is process, with a toolbox. You have to use the whole process, and all your tools. Except in the US, we don't have the poultry vaccine tool. Dont know whose specific decision that was, but farmers can't give what the government is not producing/licensing.

Show threadWeaselNov 28

@ProPublica

USDA hiding Bird Flu data from independent analysts:

"This analysis doesn’t account for how much infectious material would have actually been spreading in the environment. That would require additional information, like how many chickens were sick and at what rate. The USDA returned a public records request that likely would have contained some of those facts, but every piece of information was redacted."

https://www.propublica.org/article/methodology-bird-flu-outbreak-ohio-indiana

How ProPublica Investigated a Bird Flu Outbreak in America’s Heartland

Early this year, bird flu ripped through 80 farms in Ohio and Indiana. Using genetic markers, wind simulations, satellite imagery, property records and more, we found that the virus could’ve been airborne.

ProPublica
Show threadWesDymNov 28

@ProPublica We used to raise chickens. We also believe it's travelling by air, but on the wing, not via airborne virions (or the same carried on particles, which would be more likely). Birds fly. Even chickens fly (not well). A virus transmissible between birds already has an available airborne vector; it doesn't require any special mutation. There is a relationship between weather and birds, but it's extremely complex. (Like the n-Body Problem.) It's real, but incalculable.

/cont-2

Show threadWesDymNov 28

@ProPublica 2/ I want to be clear, we don't DISMISS the potential for airborne transmission. But it requires special data that's unusually difficult to produce.

Whether it is or not, though, does not excuse US intransigence on this. We're able to limit this right now, no matter how it spreads, and we're not.

Show threadBongolianNov 18
@ProPublica The #RFK #Flu
Show threadnoplasticshowerNov 28
@ProPublica the United States is a failed state run by idiots
Show threadWesDymNov 28
@ProPublica We learned nothing from Covid. Well, some of us did, but not enough, and certainly not enough decision-makers.