rednikkiNov 13
So, turns out the seminal psychological treatise “When Prophecy Fails” was a lie. When prophecy failed, the cult members did not double down, and the cult quickly collapsed. Which means decades of sociological thinking are built on a falsehood.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jhbs.70043
Show threadtrisweb
@rednikki woah. So “cognitive dissonance” is basically fake? (*edit: or more accurately, “cognitive dissonance” has its origins in poor science)
Nov 13 at 5:50pmWeb
Show threadrednikkiNov 13
@trisweb It appears so. This paper is pretty damning.
Show thread⠠⠵ avukoNov 13

@rednikki @trisweb a lot of peeps will have a hard time accepting that cognitive dissonance doesn’t exist. Maybe to the point they proof the existence of cognitive dissonance.

I’m only half joking. A particular phenomenon can exist without the research discovering it being correctly done.

I’m immediately thinking of everything discovered in maths and astronomy by people working from superstitions or incorrect assumptions.

I would need other independent proof though.

PS: so happy with people in science digging up bullshit!

Show threadtriswebNov 13
@avuko @rednikki true, just because the research wasn’t sound doesn’t mean the concept doesn’t exist or isn’t valid. But it should definitely push people to rethink and confirm.
Show threadrednikkiNov 14
@trisweb @avuko The paper kicks off by going over all of the attempts to replicate the study shown in When Prophecy Fails by observing other cults making specific predictions. Each of those cults broke up when the prophecies did not come true, and there were questions about why no one had successfully replicated it. Like so much science, it turns out it couldn’t be replicated because the original finding was faked.
Show threadNick Judd, Chicago dadNov 14
@rednikki @trisweb @avuko thanks for this. There are quite a few good, recent studies now showing if you correct an incorrect statement of fact that cuts against someone’s priors, they’ll change their understanding of fact but they won’t change their (ideological) beliefs. These studies are experimental and follow people for at most a few weeks, but they are evidence that one’s “deeper truth” is at least resistant to new information.
Show threadSheldonNov 13

@avuko I didn't read the paper, but I doubt it's saying there's no such thing as cognitive dissonance as a concept, but just that this idea that cults get stronger from failed prophecies is a bunch of bullshit.

@rednikki @trisweb