Mesoscale Discussion 2145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...portions of south-central coastal California.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 140444Z - 140645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A band of low-topped convection, expected to move onshore
tonight, may pose a risk for sporadic damaging wind gusts and/or a
brief weak tornado. A WW is unlikely given the limited buoyancy.

DISCUSSION...As of 0440 UTC, regional WV imagery showed a large
upper low gradually moving southward across the CA coast. As the low
deepens, a 100+ kt mid-level jet attendant to the low is forecast to
move onshore across south-central CA tonight. Cooling mid-level
temperatures and increasing large-scale ascent should overspread
south-central coastal CA over the next few hours. SPC Mesoanalysis
currently shows 200-300 J/kg of MLCAPE present along the near-shore
where temperatures have held in the low 60s amid 50s F surface

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2145.html

#CAwx #wind #tornado #rain