Kevin Karhan 
viq@kkarhan @rogue_corq https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feCdUCRa2JU is an interesting summary of what's going on, what are the challenges, and what possible next steps there are
Deep Intel on Poland Downing Russian Drones
@kkarhan @rogue_corq and one of the points: each of those drones costs about 15k USD to make. Each of the missiles used to shoot them down costs *at least* 1M USD, some of them *way* more.
@viq @rogue_corq Granted, those drones have 0 self-defense mechanisms so a single hit with a 40mm bofors or 20mm Hispano-Suiza or NTW-20 should also take them down at a cost <€1k per shot.
- And those could be automated to a high degree...
Not to mention the possibility for Laser and microwave weaponry that can fry the drone's electronics, which are already possible woth COTS parts for less than $10k once and less than $10 per kill...
- I also expect "#ProjectRainbowDash" to finally get the UCAV / Interceptor capabilities it had originally planned as concept.
@kkarhan @rogue_corq except those that do exist, have already been sent to Ukraine.
And there's already a lot of internal discussion and arguments in Poland that the military is not doing *anything* to improve anti-drone or anti-armor capabilities, in a way that addresses what is seen happening in Ukraine.
And there's already a lot of internal discussion and arguments in Poland that the military is not doing *anything* to improve anti-drone or anti-armor capabilities, in a way that addresses what is seen happening in Ukraine.
@viq @rogue_corq worst-case #Poland pulls #Article5 and #AA capabilities will be ordered in, including German Flak Systems.
@kkarhan @rogue_corq What's the current state of German flak systems?
@viq @rogue_corq 20mm autocannons with radar systems that can automatically track and shoot multiple targets...
@kkarhan @rogue_corq yes. How many does Germany have currently? How many of them is it willing to have *not* *in* Germany? How many is Germany able to produce in say next year?
@viq @rogue_corq good question.
Ask @Bundesregierung about it.
- Tho I'm not shure they gonna answer those questions in 100% detail for #NatSec reasons...
Rest assured shooting down subsonic, low-altitude UAVs isn't "rocket science" and even WW2 level tech can do that as in #MG3 with AA sights mounted or some FN FCU remote-controlled turret.
- People overestimate the ruggedness of said #drones: For the most part they are upscaled RC models...
@kkarhan @rogue_corq @Bundesregierung it isn't particularly complicated, no. The issue is that when flying low they're hard to detect, and you have short time in which to do so. Also let's be generous, and give them a 2km range, with no overlap you need to place them every 4km. That's ~150 of them just along the border, without overlap and additional defences in select places. Plus supplies and infrastructure for them and crews.
@kkarhan @rogue_corq @Bundesregierung and something the size of your kitchen table flying at over 200km/h at low altitude, with WW2 tech once it comes into your view, you won't swing the barrels into position fast enough until it will be out of your sights, especially in forest.
@kkarhan @rogue_corq @Bundesregierung also, yes, hitting one is pretty easy. Shame about the other 15 that flew by in the time you were aiming at that one.
@viq @rogue_corq @Bundesregierung that's why there are automated complexes and remote controllable turrets.
- Pretty shure #Rheinmetall can whip up a copy of the Phalanx CIWS as automated AA turret.
I rather expect #NATO to formulate some serious optinion and reaction to that!
@kkarhan @rogue_corq @Bundesregierung also production capacity doesn't just happen. Like the guy joked in the video I linked: "Russia tripled its spending, and tripled the production. Europe tripled the spending, and tripled the prices for the same production".
@kkarhan @rogue_corq @Bundesregierung "technology exists" and "we're able to produce it" and "we're able to produce it in sufficient numbers" and "we're able to keep it placed in appropriate location(s)" are completely separate things.
@viq @rogue_corq @Bundesregierung I know.
- But it's not as if this is a new thing either.
Again if I was Nato I'd put up some Pershings in Finland and Poland to make it clear to Putin that he better not fuck around or he will find out.
- Anything else is cowarde towards him!
@viq @rogue_corq @Bundesregierung granted, most of poland is flat af and said radar setups get put on semi-mobile towers, so there's that.
- I do rather expect NATO to put Short- and Medium-Range missiles in range to the point that St. Petersburg & #Moscow are trivial to target...