Tea time.
So, what does it mean if, as seems likely, India agrees to shift away from Russian oil, with raised odds that China follows suit?!
Well, it's a major, long-lasting catastrophe for the Russian economy. So bad that Putin might consider an immediate ceasefire or even handing off power, if well-advised... which he probably won't be. (I'm not sure he'd want to stay in power if a ceasefire & negotiation must be adopted.)
He'd probably continue the war, unless Nabiullina advised him otherwise... 1/5 🧵
Jul 31, 2025 at 7:54pmElk
Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
Putin forced into a ceasefire is uncharted territory, where Russia immediately loses a lot of its leverage in negotiations. The Russians might permanently wind up on the outskirts of Pokrovsk, without a good source of water for occupied Ukraine. Humiliating. (One big reason Putin might want to resign first, appointing someone who'll keep him safe from war crimes tribunals, etc.)
It could be so painful that it might lend itself to a N. Korean non-peace peace.
Which is why war remains likely. 2/5
Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
Such a continued war could lead to more slow Russian gains, but would also likely lead to increasing capital flight, dismal stocks, a worsening economy, and a gradual meltdown.
The Soviets used to have to import grain from the West. We could imagine a prolonged war moving Russia in this direction. Ukraine, meanwhile, would target more refineries, rails, factories, etc. Their interceptor drones would likely establish long range attack drone air superiority, potentially impacting Russian jets.3/5
Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
A continued war would also GREATLY HURT Russian long term recruitment. Russians know what REALLY tough sanctions will mean. It could force conscription, in that large bonuses for signing up would be far less economically justifiable. Oil sanctions would also likely lead to OTHER sanctions as well. If you can pressure either India, China, or both to agree to oil, anything else would be a comparatively small issue. It would also have negative impacts on Orban, etc. Nobody would accept rubles. 4/5
Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
Ultimately, there'd be increasing unrest in Russia. People would visibly see things worsen. Food riots could happen, Russia's extremities could rise up, Chechnya, etc. could become destabilized, esp. with Kadyrov in ill health. Belarus might be persuaded to seek separate peace, N. Korea could cut losses, declare victory, and go home. Meanwhile, deaths at the front would escalate, but not enough to stop Ukrainians from resisting. Even lower RUS morale enabling UKR counterattacks...
Ugly.
/end
Show threadCoach Pāṇini ®Jul 31, 2025

@KraftTea

“N. Korean non-peace peace.” ?

Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025

@paninid A permanent cease-fire without a formal peace agreement. Still technically a state of war.

Russia might have to accept that the only way they'll export to the West again, i.e., would be with much of the profits going to pay for Ukr. reconstruction, for years and YEARS. Likewise, there will be Western businesses that will demand compensation for seized assets. Lawsuits would be brutal. Reopening to the world economy? Traumatic.

Show threadKevin RussellJul 31, 2025

@KraftTea

Do you know more of what this is?

India is dropping Russian Oil, huge loss to nearly destroyed russian economy. I dont know how Putin can stay. Dont know how Russia lets Putin stay.

Putin has screwed Russia like no moron has screwed Russia before.
plus hundreds of thousands dead.

#ukraine #PutinLosesIndia

Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
@kevinrns If India does agree to halt Russian oil imports it makes it much less likely that Putin will stay for long.
It basically prevents them from exporting about a third of their current exports. It does not, however, prevent them from exporting that oil below the price cap to someone else... but given that there is basically no profit in exporting oil below the price cap, that's little comfort. If anything, such oil exports would help lower prices for everyone else.
Putin is vulnerable.
Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
@kevinrns Also worth pointing out that EU countries voted awhile back to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $47.60 a barrel. That's probably about $5 a barrel lower than the production cost... but that is a price Russia might be willing to accept, because of their need for overseas currency to facilitate trade with other nations, and because they either need to keep pumping their oil or cap their wells for the long term. The oil has to go somewhere, lest it freeze in the pipes and crack them.
Show threadKevin RussellJul 31, 2025

@KraftTea

It is good to see awful actions stopped.

Russians should decide soon, rise up and make a democratic rights loving state, or let the oligarchs and billionaires fight like warlords to run Russia.

But one will happen, soon.

#ByeByePutin #Putin #Russia #Ukraine

Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
@kevinrns I think Russia can drag it out longer, until it's humiliated. Might take a year or two though.
It's not the wise choice, or the best choice, but it's the easiest one for Putin to make. Arguably also the best choice for Ukraine in the long run.
Show threadKevin RussellJul 31, 2025

@KraftTea

Perhaps the first target for Ukraine defensive actions should be assets belonging to "other" Russian billionaires other than Putin, even just, only, the other billionaires.

Cost benefit analysts. Putin extraction.