Tea time.Jul 31, 2025
So, what does it mean if, as seems likely, India agrees to shift away from Russian oil, with raised odds that China follows suit?!
Well, it's a major, long-lasting catastrophe for the Russian economy. So bad that Putin might consider an immediate ceasefire or even handing off power, if well-advised... which he probably won't be. (I'm not sure he'd want to stay in power if a ceasefire & negotiation must be adopted.)
He'd probably continue the war, unless Nabiullina advised him otherwise... 1/5 🧵
Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
Putin forced into a ceasefire is uncharted territory, where Russia immediately loses a lot of its leverage in negotiations. The Russians might permanently wind up on the outskirts of Pokrovsk, without a good source of water for occupied Ukraine. Humiliating. (One big reason Putin might want to resign first, appointing someone who'll keep him safe from war crimes tribunals, etc.)
It could be so painful that it might lend itself to a N. Korean non-peace peace.
Which is why war remains likely. 2/5
Show threadTea time.
Such a continued war could lead to more slow Russian gains, but would also likely lead to increasing capital flight, dismal stocks, a worsening economy, and a gradual meltdown.
The Soviets used to have to import grain from the West. We could imagine a prolonged war moving Russia in this direction. Ukraine, meanwhile, would target more refineries, rails, factories, etc. Their interceptor drones would likely establish long range attack drone air superiority, potentially impacting Russian jets.3/5
Jul 31, 2025 at 8:12pmElk
Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
A continued war would also GREATLY HURT Russian long term recruitment. Russians know what REALLY tough sanctions will mean. It could force conscription, in that large bonuses for signing up would be far less economically justifiable. Oil sanctions would also likely lead to OTHER sanctions as well. If you can pressure either India, China, or both to agree to oil, anything else would be a comparatively small issue. It would also have negative impacts on Orban, etc. Nobody would accept rubles. 4/5
Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
Ultimately, there'd be increasing unrest in Russia. People would visibly see things worsen. Food riots could happen, Russia's extremities could rise up, Chechnya, etc. could become destabilized, esp. with Kadyrov in ill health. Belarus might be persuaded to seek separate peace, N. Korea could cut losses, declare victory, and go home. Meanwhile, deaths at the front would escalate, but not enough to stop Ukrainians from resisting. Even lower RUS morale enabling UKR counterattacks...
Ugly.
/end