Tea time.Jul 31, 2025
So, what does it mean if, as seems likely, India agrees to shift away from Russian oil, with raised odds that China follows suit?!
Well, it's a major, long-lasting catastrophe for the Russian economy. So bad that Putin might consider an immediate ceasefire or even handing off power, if well-advised... which he probably won't be. (I'm not sure he'd want to stay in power if a ceasefire & negotiation must be adopted.)
He'd probably continue the war, unless Nabiullina advised him otherwise... 1/5 🧵
Show threadKevin RussellJul 31, 2025

@KraftTea

Do you know more of what this is?

India is dropping Russian Oil, huge loss to nearly destroyed russian economy. I dont know how Putin can stay. Dont know how Russia lets Putin stay.

Putin has screwed Russia like no moron has screwed Russia before.
plus hundreds of thousands dead.

#ukraine #PutinLosesIndia

Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
@kevinrns Also worth pointing out that EU countries voted awhile back to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $47.60 a barrel. That's probably about $5 a barrel lower than the production cost... but that is a price Russia might be willing to accept, because of their need for overseas currency to facilitate trade with other nations, and because they either need to keep pumping their oil or cap their wells for the long term. The oil has to go somewhere, lest it freeze in the pipes and crack them.
Show threadKevin Russell

@KraftTea

It is good to see awful actions stopped.

Russians should decide soon, rise up and make a democratic rights loving state, or let the oligarchs and billionaires fight like warlords to run Russia.

But one will happen, soon.

#ByeByePutin #Putin #Russia #Ukraine

Jul 31, 2025 at 9:47pmWeb
Show threadTea time.Jul 31, 2025
@kevinrns I think Russia can drag it out longer, until it's humiliated. Might take a year or two though.
It's not the wise choice, or the best choice, but it's the easiest one for Putin to make. Arguably also the best choice for Ukraine in the long run.
Show threadKevin RussellJul 31, 2025

@KraftTea

Perhaps the first target for Ukraine defensive actions should be assets belonging to "other" Russian billionaires other than Putin, even just, only, the other billionaires.

Cost benefit analysts. Putin extraction.