Dominik SteigerDevelopment so far, tabulated.
Note that the covSPECTRUM growth extrapolation, with much fewer seqs, was predicting dominance for wk 14, as the current estimate now shows too.
Dominik Steiger (@[email protected])
Attached: 2 images Extrapolation with new sequences (last available in covSPECTRUM 26.03.) would see JN.1 Spike + S:R346T, S:F456L (FLiRT) dominant in wk 14.
And perhaps the peak has been reached in wk 19. That would mean a considerably lower magnitude compared to last year's XBB wave.
FLiRT sublineages are highly dominant; KP.3 seems not to play a role according to the covSPECTRUM data as of April 25.
Interesting, the MOH itself is seeing a wave now. They even have case numbers. Did I overlook publication of these numbers?
According to their numbers, the wave might even have reached last spring wave height.
Here is their update. Would be nice if they wouldn't have ceased to publish data. Wastewater surveillance could also be considered, for such an advanced city-state.
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-covid-19-situation
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-covid-19-situation
Covid wave in Singapore, update wk. 20: Highest SARS2 positivity among ARI since wk.9, 21%. I wonder if they are at peak yet.
No new seqs in covSPECTRUM since April 25. FLiRT highly dominant with the last data, KP.3 <10%.
Covid wave in Singapore, update wk. 22 (wk. 21 missing): The wave might have peaked in wk. 21, ARI numbers and SARS2 positivity markedly lower.
In terms of ARI, May 2023 wave magnitude. In case numbers and hospitalisations, who knows.
Covid wave in Singapore, update wk. 23 (wk. 21 still missing): Further reduction of ARI cases, stable SARS2 positivity.
In terms of ARI, April/May 2023 wave magnitude. Case numbers and hospitalisations: Who knows, maybe these secrets will be revealed in another press release.
Peaked Singapore Covid wave: The MOH now supplied the missing peak week 21 ARI data and promulgated case estimates and hospitalisation data.
SARS2 positivity reached 25% in the peak week 21.
I could not find cases and hospitalisations for the weeks 20 and 21.
Given that the reduction in case numbers, hospitalisations, and SARS2 positivity seems to have slowed, it might be that we are witnessing pressure from KP.3* variants.
Peaked Singapore Covid wave: Update wk. 24, SARS2 positivity thankfully continued to go down. This was a FLiRT and (S:S31del + FLiRT) wave, and large. No KP.3* contribution.
KP.2.3 reached dominance around when the wave peaked in wk 21.
Sources:
https://moh.gov.sg/resources-statistics/infectious-disease-statistics/2024/weekly-infectious-diseases-bulletin
https://github.com/MurrellGroup/lineages?tab=readme-ov-file
Development so far:
Variant fraction estimates from the covSPECTRUM tool, using Collection 42 query, last data point 29.05.
FLiRT: Multilineage JN.1 Spike with S:R346T and S:F456L
DeFLiRT: Multilineage JN.1 Spike with S:S31del, S:R346T, S:F456L
Peaked Covid wave in Singapore, update wk. 25: lateral movement, ARI cases slightly higher, SARS2 positivity slightly lower.
Peaked Covid wave in Singapore, update wk. 26:
Lowest SARS2 positivity among ARI since wk. 16, at the beginning of the wave.
Highest flu positivity among ILI since before wk. 9.
So rising ARI numbers are likely due to (southern hemisphere) flu, at the moment.
Peaked Covid wave in Singapore, update wk. 27:
Practically no change in SARS2 ARI positivities, slightly lower influenza ILI positivity.
KP.3* still not much of a factor (latest data point in covSPECTRUM: 25.6.).
Peaked Covid wave in Singapore, update wk. 28:
Lowest SARS2 positivity among ARI since wk. 15.
Influenza positivity among ILI >30%. Rising ARI are likely due to influenza.
KP.3* still not much of a factor (latest data point in covSPECTRUM from 07.07.)
Peaked Covid wave in Singapore, update until wk. 31:
Lowest SARS2 positivities among ARI since March.
The recent influenza wave has also peaked.
Peaked Covid wave in Singapore, update until wk. 33:
These data are now at three months since the peak of the Covid wave.
Peaked Covid wave in Singapore (wk. 21), update until wk. 35:
Still no new Covid wave, 14 weeks after the last peak. SARS2 positivity among ARI at 6%.
Peaked Covid wave in Singapore (wk. 21), update until wk. 37:
Still no new Covid wave, 16 weeks after the last peak.
SARS2 positivity among ARI at 3%, lowest since March.
Peaked Covid wave in Singapore (wk. 21), update until wk. 41:
Still no new Covid wave, 20 weeks after the last peak.
Singapore, update until wk. 43:
Markedly higher ARI numbers, with SARS2 ARI positivity slightly rising and flu ILI positivity falling. Pressure from MV.1*?
Singapore, update until wk. 45.
24 weeks after the peak of the last large Covid wave. We might see the effect of MV.1*. ARI cases and SARS2 positivity lower than in the last two weeks.
Singapore, update until wk. 46.
25 weeks after the peak of the last large Covid wave. We might see the effect of MV.1*.
MV.1* fraction estimate from covSPECTRUM (https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/Singapore/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?nextcladePangoLineage=MV.1*)
Singapore, update until wk. 49.
No Covid wave, 28 weeks after the peak of the last large Covid wave.
Wk. 49: Strong influenza positivity signal among ILI.
Singapore, update until wk. 52.
No Covid wave, 31 weeks after the peak of the last large Covid wave.
Influenza wave; very high influenza positivity among ILI.
Singapore, update until week 2 2025.
No Covid wave, 33 weeks after the peak of the last large Covid wave.
Influenza wave; very high influenza positivity among ILI.
Singapore, update until week 5 2025.
No Covid wave, 36 weeks after the peak of the last large Covid wave.
Bad Influenza wave.
Singapore, update until week 13 2025.
The bad flu wave is over. There was no large Covid wave since almost a year.
Singapore, update until week 14 2025.
Highest SARS2 positivity among ARI since the last large Covid wave.
Might be the start of a wave. Might this be NB.1.8.1*?
Dominik Steiger (@[email protected])
Attached: 3 images #Covid A variant to watch: NB.1.8.1* It's become dominant in Hong Kong and is growing quite fast.
Singapore, update until week 17 2025.
Highest SARS2 positivity among ARI since the large wave last May.
Not clear to me if NB.1.8.1* is the cause.
Dominik Steiger (@[email protected])
Attached: 3 images #NB.1.8.1* #Covid #Singapore Given the insufficient numbers of seqs, it continues to be hard to say if the rise in Singapore ARI figures is related to NB.1.8.1*. The ARI and SARS2 positivity rise precedes NB1.8.1* fraction growth. Also, ARI numbers seem to rise more then Covid positivity alone would suggest. https://swiss.social/@dominiksteiger/114335575042821674
Andreas Burger@dominiksteiger warum brechen die kurven einfach ab?
@aburgerabz Die Fraktionenkurven? Weil ich mir nicht die Mühe gemacht hatte, sie weiterzuzeichnen. Die Schätzung auf covSPECTRUM ist auch am sinvollsten, wenn die Varianten schnell wachsen. MV.1* erreichte effektiv 60%, bevor es von anderen überholt wurde.
