Charles Gaba ✡️📣 Now that I’ve completely updated all 436 House district graphs with the most recent Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP & ACA exchange enrollment data, tomorrow morning, before I leave for my #HandsOff event, I’ll be posting the *42 districts* where the Republican won by less than 15 points.
📣 As promised last night, here's how many Americans are enrolled in Medicaid, CHIP, Medicare & ACA exchange plans in the *42 House districts* where Republicans won by less than 15 points last fall.
ALL OF THESE ARE POTENTIALLY FLIPPABLE.
I'm posting them in order of how close the 2024 margin was:
#IA01: Marianette Miller-Meeks
--Won by 0.2%
~33K in #ACA exchange plans (4.1% of total pop)
~162K in #Medicaid/CHIP (20.0% of total pop)
~174K in #Medicare (21.7% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#CO08: Gabe Evans
--Won by 0.8%
~25K in #ACA exchange plans (3.3% of total pop)
~175K in #Medicaid/CHIP (23.3% of total pop)
~105K in #Medicare (13.9% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#PA07 Ryan Mackenzie
--Won by 1.0%
~27K in #ACA exchange plans (3.4% of total pop)
~191K in #Medicaid/CHIP (24.4% of total pop)
~178K in #Medicare (22.7% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#PA10 Scott Perry
--Won by 1.2%
~29K in #ACA exchange plans (3.7% of total pop)
~172K in #Medicaid/CHIP (21.8% of total pop)
~169K in #Medicare (21.5% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#PA08 Robert Bresnahan
--Won by 1.6%
~28K in #ACA exchange plans (3.7% of total pop)
~203K in #Medicaid/CHIP (26.3% of total pop)
~187K in #Medicare (24.3% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#NE02 Don Bacon (won by 1.8%)
~39K in #ACA exchange plans (5.8% of total pop)
~111K in #Medicaid/CHIP (16.5% of total pop)
~110K in #Medicare (16.3% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#AKAL Nick Begich (won by 2.0%)
~29K in #ACA exchange plans (3.9% of total pop)
~250K in #Medicaid/CHIP (33.7% of total pop)
~119K in #Medicare (16.0% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#AZ06 Juan Ciscomani (won by 2.5%)
~43K in #ACA exchange plans (5.2% of total pop)
~187K in #Medicaid/CHIP (22.4% of total pop)
~232K in #Medicare (28.0% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#WI03 Derrick Van Orden (won by 2.8%)
~39K in #ACA exchange plans (5.3% of total pop)
~143K in #Medicaid/CHIP (19.2% of total pop)
~173K in #Medicare (23.2% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#CA41 Ken Calvert (won by 3.4%)
~32K in #ACA exchange plans (4.0% of total pop)
~253K in #Medicaid/CHIP (30.8% of total pop)
~142K in #Medicare (17.4% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#MI07 Tom Barrett (won by 3.7%)
~34K in #ACA exchange plans (4.3% of total pop)
~129K in #Medicaid/CHIP (16.4% of total pop)
~166K in #Medicare (20.9% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#AZ01 David Schweikert (won by 3.8%)
~49K in #ACA exchange plans (5.9% of total pop)
~121K in #Medicaid/CHIP (14.7% of total pop)
~180K in #Medicare (22.0% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#IA03 Zach Nunn (won by 3.8%)
~35K in #ACA exchange plans (4.2% of total pop)
~173K in #Medicaid/CHIP (20.9% of total pop)
~154K in #Medicare (18.6% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#VA02 Jennifer Kiggans (won by 3.8%)
~31K in #ACA exchange plans (3.9% of total pop)
~142K in #Medicaid/CHP (17.9% of total pop)
~157K in #Medicare (19.6% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#CO03 Jeff Hurd (won by 5.0%)
~42K in #ACA exchange plans (5.6% of total pop)
~210K in #Medicaid/CHIP (28.4% of total pop)
~181K in #Medicare (24.4% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
📣 I'm pausing at the "won by 5% or less" mark to note that ALL of the above districts are on my U.S. House fundraising page. Donate today!
secure.actblue.com/donate/house...
Chip in!
Chip in!
#NJ07 Thomas Kean Jr. (won by 5.4%)
~44K in #ACA exchange plans (5.6% of total pop)
~68K in #Medicaid/CHIP (8.6% of total pop)
~161K in #Medicare (20.2% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#MI10 John James (won by 6.1%)
~48K in #ACA exchange plans (6.2% of total pop)
~175K in #Medicaid/CHIP (22.6% of total pop)
~171K in #Medicare (22.1% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#NY17 Michael Lawler (won by 6.3%)
~62K in #ACA exchange QHPs or BHPs (7.9% of total pop)
~205K in #Medicaid/CHIP (26.1% of total pop)
~153K in #Medicare (19.5% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#CA22 David Valadao (won by 6.8%)
~23K in #ACA exchange plans (3.0% of total pop)
~473K in #Medicaid/CHIP (60.3% of total pop) 👀
~138K in #Medicare (17.6% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#MT01 Ryan Zinke (won by 7.7%)
~45K in #ACA exchange plans (7.7% of total pop)
~113K in #Medicaid/CHIP (19.5% of total pop)
~134K in #Medicare (23.2% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#AZ02 Eli Crane (won by 9.0%)
~45K in #ACA exchange plans (5.3% of total pop)
~260K in #Medicaid/CHIP (30.7% of total pop)
~219K in #Medicare (25.8% of total pop)
#FL13 Anna Paulina Luna (won by 9.6%)
~110K in #ACA exchange plans (13.9% of total pop)
~101K in #Medicaid/CHIP (12.8% of total pop)
~221K in #Medicare (27.8% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
📣 Pausing again at the "won by less than 10%" mark to note that, again, ALL of the above districts are on my U.S. House fundraising page. Donate today!!
secure.actblue.com/donate/house...
Chip in!
Chip in!
Now we move into the steeper climbs (they won by 10 - 15 points). SOME of the following are on my U.S. House fundraising page; I'm considering adding the rest of them.
#WI01 Bryan Steil (won by 10.2%)
~35K in #ACA exchange plans (4.8% of total pop)
~163K in #Medicaid/CHIP (22.1% of total pop)
~162K in #Medicare (21.9% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#NY01 Nick LaLota (won by 10.4%)
~47K in #ACA exchange QHPs or BHPs (5.9% of total pop)
~142K in #Medicaid/CHIP (18.1% of total pop)
~177K in #Medicare (22.5% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#CA40 Young Kim (won by 10.6%)
~42K in #ACA exchange plans (5.5% of total pop)
~156K in #Medicaid/CHIP (20.5% of total pop)
~142K in #Medicare (18.5% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#CA03 Kevin Kiley (won by 11.0%)
~46K in #ACA exchange plans (5.7% of total pop)
~170K in #Medicaid/CHIP (21.3% of total pop)
~147K in #Medicare (18.3% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#CO04 Lauren Boebert (won by 11.6%)
~37K in #ACA exchange plans (4.8% of total pop)
~118K in #Medicaid/CHIP (15.2% of total pop)
~136K in #Medicare (17.5% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#MI04 Bill Huizenga (won by 11.7%)
~40K in #ACA exchange plans (5.1% of total pop)
~148K in #Medicaid/CHIP (19.0% of total pop)
~168K in #Medicare (21.4% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#MO02 Ann Wagner (won by 12.0%)
~52K in #ACA exchange plans (6.7% of total pop)
~75K in #Medicaid/CHIP (9.6% of total pop)
~178K in #Medicare (23.1% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#FL15 Laurel Lee (won by 12.4%)
~137K in #ACA exchange plans (16.0% of total pop)
~148K in #Medicaid/CHIP (17.2% of total pop)
~155K in #Medicare (18.1% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#PA01 Brian Fitzpatrick (won by 12.8%)
~38K in #ACA exchange plans (5.0% of total pop)
~113K in #Medicaid/CHIP (14.7% of total pop)
~181K in #Medicare (23.5% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#VA01 Robert Wittman (won by 12.8%)
~34K in #ACA exchange plans (4.2% of total pop)
~122K in #Medicaid/CHIP (14.8% of total pop)
~185K in #Medicare (22.4% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#AZ08 Abraham Hamadeh (won by 13.0%)
~49K in #ACA exchange plans (6.0% of total pop)
~168K in #Medicaid/CHIP (20.5% of total pop)
~188K in #Medicare (22.9% of total pop)
#FL07 Cory Mills (won by 13.0%)
~128K in #ACA exchange plans (15.4% of total pop)
~124K in #Medicaid/CHIP (14.9% of total pop)
~180K in #Medicare (21..8% of total pop)
#OH15 Mike Carey (won by 13.2%)
~44K in #ACA exchange plans (5.5% of total pop)
~180K in #Medicaid/CHIP (22.6% of total pop)
~140K in #Medicare (17.6% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#NC11 Chuck Edwards (won by 13.6%)
~78K in #ACA exchange plans (10.1% of total pop)
~188K in #Medicaid/CHIP (24.1% of total pop)
~217K in #Medicare (27.8% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#CO05 Jeff Crank (won by 13.8%)
~23K in #ACA exchange plans (3.0% of total pop)
~149K in #Medicaid/CHIP (19.9% of total pop)
~123K in #Medicare (16.5% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#TX15 Monica De La Cruz (won by 14.2%)
~159K in #ACA exchange plans (19.3% of total pop)
~165K in #Medicaid/CHIP (20.1% of total pop)
~121K in #Medicare (14.8% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#WI08 Tony Wied (won by 14.4%)
~44K in #ACA exchange plans (5.8% of total pop)
~146K in #Medicaid/CHIP (19.5% of total pop)
~169K in #Medicare (22.6% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#FL04 Aaron Bean (won by 14.6%)
~122K in #ACA exchange plans (14.5% of total pop)
~160K in #Medicaid/CHIP (19% of total pop)
~166K in #Medicare (19.7% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
#VA05 John McGuire (won by 15.0%)
~35K in #ACA exchange plans (4.4% of total pop)
~210K in #Medicaid/CHIP (26.0% of total pop)
~199K in #Medicare (24.7% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
AND FINALLY...
#OH07 Max Miller (won by 15.0%)
~38K in #ACA exchange plans (4.9% of total pop)
~121K in #Medicaid/CHIP (15.6% of total pop)
~187K in #Medicare (24.1% of total pop)
acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...
