Mastodawn

sport of sacred spherical cows Jan 22, 2025

NCHS estimates of #LongCovid—based on Household Pulse Survey.

Have been holding off refreshing this thread, as Census was due to relaunch HPS as HTOPS in January:

https://hcommons.social/@beadsland/113728679706939484

Word of a moratorium on government communications, makes this seem unlikely:

https://zeroes.ca/@maleve/113869675383946385

Nonetheless HPS reporting was suspended, despite ongoing data collection, in October of the prior administration.

#ThisIsOurPolio #CountLongCovid #CovidIsNotOver #MassDisablingEvent

[This is first toot of periodically refreshed thread, providing various dataviz of ongoing #pandemic.]

Last period:
https://hcommons.social/@beadsland/113608415072830510

sport of sacred spherical cows (@[email protected])

Attached: 2 images Middle or late last week, Census Bureau updated landing page for the Household Pulse Survey, adding two paragraphs to the introduction [first screencap below]. According to this update, the HPS has not been dormant since last update in October; rather they've been converting over to a new format. The Census Blog (under the category "Random Samplings"), linked to, was apparently published on Sept 16, though there was no obvious link calling it out on various HPS pages before last week. According to said blog, data collection continued in October and December, reflecting an every-other-month sampling strategy, with release of that data to occur with the January re-launch. Unstated is whether the changes will include revision of the underlying questionnaire. A longitudinal design suggests that they will be sampling the same respondents on a repeated basis, rather than an entirely random sample each round. If so, we might anticipate questions being dropped to reduce respondent burden.

hcommons.social

sport of sacred spherical cows Jan 22, 2025

A FLuQE wavelet opened September, becoming MC wave into November. December saw both FLiRT clans and JN.1.11 vie for dominance, only for JN.1 FLiRT to win out.

After skipping update two weeks prior, #CDC broke out XEC.4, as FLiRT KS.1.1 / FLuQE KP.3.3 hybrid XEC family—never having reached majority—being pressed by FLiRT LP.8.1.

New dashboard from Raj givs us more recent GISAID data.

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

sport of sacred spherical cows Jan 22, 2025

Updated GISAID data entering January has FluQE31 KP.3.1.1 / MC and children down to just over a third of all sequences.

FLiRT KS.1.1 / FLuQE KP.3.3 hybrid XEC now approaching two fifths.

JN.1 FLiRT descendant LF.7 is diversifying, while KP.1.1.3 / LP scion LP.8.1, and recombinant XEL—child of JN.1 and FLiRT KS.1.1.2—both stand out.

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne

sport of sacred spherical cows Jan 28, 2025

Oh, me?

Just sitting here, wondering how much GISAID data for the U.S. there will be from late January forward. (Raj's dashboard last shows data through the 17th.)

Aware that #CDC long ago would have preferred to stop publishing #covid variants estimates, am expecting to not see same updated this Friday.

They stopped publishing all other related data long before now, and still weren't publishing anything useful wrt #BirdFlu, as of close of last administration.

So now we wait to see how much compliance in advance impacts academic researchers submitting data to a global non-profit. (Let alone how much of U.S. GISAID data may be typically provided by gov't researchers.)

Yes, GISAID was founded in opposition to WHO's proprietary data practices. But also, GISAID's public domain ethos is close enough in spirit to F/OSS that it might just as readily be a target of isolationist fervor.

So, it's wait in see.

#CovidIsNotOver #BirdFluBegins

sport of sacred spherical cows

Welp, so much for that.

Will note that the Census Bureau page for Household Pulse Survey changed to link to the promised relaunched HTOPS some time after the 26th. (This was the last date archive.org managed to crawl the page.)

So they seem to have achieved the relaunch, only for it to now be down. Archive.org never got to crawl the newly launched site.

sport of sacred spherical cows Jan 31, 2025

A FLuQE wavelet opened September, becoming MC wave into November. December saw both FLiRT clans and JN.1.11 vie for dominance, only for JN.1 FLiRT to win out.

Although #CDC did update metadata today, data remains unchanged from two weeks ago.

At that time, FLiRT KS.1.1 / FLuQE KP.3.3 hybrid XEC family—never having reached majority—was being pressed by FLiRT LP.8.1.

New GISAID data from Raj.

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

sport of sacred spherical cows Jan 31, 2025

Updated GISAID data early-mid January has FluQE31 KP.3.1.1 / MC and children down to under a third of all sequences.

FLiRT KS.1.1 / FLuQE KP.3.3 hybrid XEC now over two fifths.

JN.1 FLiRT descendant LF.7 is diversifying, while LP.8.1.1 / NY, MC.8.1, and XEQ (recombinant of FLiRT KS.1.1.2 and KP.3) all stand out.

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 1, 2025

And now data.cdc.gov is offline.

At least the #CDC, unlike the Census Bureau, aren't being coy about why.

Still, an awful lot of compliance happening. They even use the word.

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 10, 2025

So, about this:

https://hcommons.social/@beadsland/113904501178492408

Raj's dashboard for U.S. hasn't been updated since Jan 31, reflecting submitted data for samples through Jan 24.

Global dashboard was updated this morning, reflecting submitted data through Feb 4.

For North America, Ontario seems to be only division actively submitting data, with over a hundred sequences Jan 25 forward.

Followed by Nebraska (30 sequences), Iowa (21), New Brunswick (13), Colorado (13), Alberta (9), Utah (9), Virginia (5), Nevada (5)…

sport of sacred spherical cows (@[email protected])

Oh, me? Just sitting here, wondering how much GISAID data for the U.S. there will be from late January forward. (Raj's dashboard last shows data through the 17th.) Aware that #CDC long ago would have preferred to stop publishing #covid variants estimates, am expecting to not see same updated this Friday. They stopped publishing all other related data long before now, and still weren't publishing anything useful wrt #BirdFlu, as of close of last administration. So now we wait to see how much compliance in advance impacts academic researchers submitting data to a global non-profit. (Let alone how much of U.S. GISAID data may be typically provided by gov't researchers.) Yes, GISAID was founded in opposition to WHO's proprietary data practices. But also, GISAID's public domain ethos is close enough in spirit to F/OSS that it might just as readily be a target of isolationist fervor. So, it's wait in see. #CovidIsNotOver #BirdFluBegins

hcommons.social

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 10, 2025

Holiday programming ticked over another hundred lines for #AnnoPlot #dataviz project since last update:

https://hcommons.social/@beadsland/113842033121034976

Variants was last #datavis being updated. May be the end.

Work in last month includes:

• auto-generated alt-text for variants chart
• rework of markdown utility module
• runtime-option aware captions
• prelim devpie alt-text generation
• tweaks to variant bundling, cluster ancestry & recombinant assignment; also emboss hemming, GISAID import, and footnote plumbing.

sport of sacred spherical cows (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image Gave myself some programming time as a holiday treat. Added ~300 lines to #AnnoPlot #dataviz project since last update: https://hcommons.social/@beadsland/113711696418854256 In our post-data era, only variants #datavis is still actively being updated. Work in last month includes: • tweaks to variant bundling, family grouping, cluster ancestry & recombinant assignment • footnote on legend • auto-generated alt-text for variants chart • rework of markdown utility module • tweaks to GISAID imports, bubbles & tile embossing

hcommons.social

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 14, 2025

After no data two weeks ago, #CDC updates variant estimates.

After January's FLiRT soup (JN.1 and JN.1.11 lineages vying for dominance), we've returned to JN.1.11 soup (FLiRT and FLuQE clusters competing), that began when FLuQE majority ended in November.

There's been insufficient GISAID data for Raj to update U.S. dashboard. Might assume LP.8.1.1 / NY continues to drive growth of LP.8.1 fam.

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 15, 2025

To put recent news—of #influenza deaths exceeding #covid deaths—in context, #CDC now has preliminary #flu burden estimates for season ended Sept 2024.

#PublicHealth surveillance systems have never been adequate for tracking flu, so CDC uses models to arrive at estimates.

By comparison, covid mortality reflects actual deaths reported as due to covid. There's no comparable covid burden modeling being done, so covid deaths believed misreported—as "natural causes" or otherwise—don't show up in this figure.

End of last flu season, annualized covid mortality was more than double estimated influenza burden deaths.

Covid death reporting began sharp deceleration in December, after spike in July/August. Such drop-off in reporting must be taken into account when comparing mortality stats.

Won't likely see flu burden estimates for this new season until early next year. But we know non-#BirdFlu flu is stressing hospitals, and #H5N1 cases have gone unrecognized.

#CovidIsNotOver #BirdFluBegins

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 19, 2025

After January's FLiRT soup (JN.1 and JN.1.11 lineages vying for dominance), we've returned to JN.1.11 soup (FLiRT and FLuQE clusters competing), that began when FLuQE majority ended in November.

After no data two weeks ago, #CDC updated variant estimates.

Raj has updated dashboard Sunday with new GISAID sequences. As of data two weeks ago, XEC.8 joins XEC.2 and LP.8.1.1 / NY as significant.

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 19, 2025

#CDC has long time now been piloting the craft of #PublicHealth sans navigational equipment.

To be clear, national data used for chart above are modeled on regional data collection.

Given little data we do have, LP.8.1 has gained plurality status in NY/NJ and Great Lakes regions, XEC still majority in Mtn/Dakotas, with cousin XEQ prominent.

[For color key, see: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions]

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #WearAMask #BetterMasks

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 19, 2025

Updated GISAID data for late January has FluQE31 KP.3.1.1 / MC and children down to just over a fifth of all sequences.

FLiRT KS.1.1 / FLuQE KP.3.3 hybrid XEC down near two fifths.

LP.8.1 and child LP.8.1.1 / NY together already another fifth.

Meanwhile, in remaining fifth:
• JN.1 FLiRT descendant LF.7 remains diverse despite pressure; and
• XEQ (recombinant of FLiRT KS.1.1.2 and KP.3) continues to stand out.

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 28, 2025

After January's FLiRT soup (JN.1 and JN.1.11 lineages vying for dominance), we've returned to JN.1.11 soup (FLiRT and FLuQE clusters competing), that began when FLuQE majority ended in November.

#CDC breaks out a new FLuQE variant, MC.28.1, even as being squeezed by LP.8.1 fam.

Raj updated global dashboard Sunday, incl. hundreds of U.S. samples early Feb. Still await updated U.S. dashboard.

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 28, 2025

#CDC has long time now been piloting the craft of #PublicHealth sans navigational equipment.

To be clear, national data used for chart above are modeled on regional data collection.

Given little data we do have, LP.8.1 now estimated as nearing majority status in NY/NJ, with XEC (incl. XEC.4) still near a third share.

As for other regions?

[For color key, see: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions]

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #WearAMask #BetterMasks

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Sam Feb 19, 2025

@beadsland #COVID

So we have a zoo of variants. With limited testing, XEC.x amount to ~45.6%, LP.8.1.y ~21.5%, ~MC.z ~15.3%, others ~17.6%.

CDC's ACIP is supposed to meet Feb 26-28. It hasn't publicly been cancelled yet. And they should select the strains for this falls updated vaccine. MAGAts in the House introduced a bill banning mRNA vaccines. RFK Jr. is death on them.

So Moderna and Pfizer may not produce any. That leaves Novavax as a maybe.

Oh joy. Any bets?
Will ACIP even meet? ... ?

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 19, 2025

Moderna has offices in ten countries, Pfizer in 69 countries. Moreover, Pfizer's vaccine was developed by a German company, which isn't likely to cede the mRNA market to Oxford. Something tells me U.S. companies will still take part in international rent-bounty.

Yet, despite near a dozen different vaccines being developed globally, as of August 2024, only seven in ten people globally had ever received even a single dose of any covid vaccine. Keeping in mind that mRNA's, at least, entail a course of two doses.

Meanwhile, in the U.S.:

"The percent of the population reporting receipt of the updated 2024─25 COVID-19 vaccine is 12.1% (11.3-12.9) for children and 23.1% (22.3-23.8) for adults age 18+, including 45.2% (43.3-47.1) among adults age 65+."

That's for vaccines that have been available since August of last year.

We've never been serious about vaccines. Only about telling people that if they got vaccinated, they could stop taking covid (and covid vaccines) seriously.

Sam Feb 19, 2025

@beadsland #COVID

All of what you say is true and on point.

For those of us in the US, who understand COVID is a severely damaging disease, and who have not been mind wiped, the vaccines have been a critical piece un reducing (not eliminating) risk. They aren't updated fast enough, nor allowed often enough to be or do more.

mRNA vaccines are the safest and most effective ever developed, contrary to Doctor Brain Worm's claims.

Our choices now will be far more limited. And less up to date.

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 19, 2025

Shouldn't have let the larva allusion slide first time; now gonna have to call out the neurohelminthiasic slur. Please keep such ableism out of my mentions.

Reason to believe Novavax has greater longevity, though in scenario where it has less uptake: thus providing less selection pressure on viral evolution.

That said, mRNA vaccine that drives generation of antibodies for ass-ends of free-floating spike proteins wastes limited immune function. Such spike-protein platforms may be efficient to produce—but as is often the case—that does not make them efficient across their product lifecycle.

Immune system is less like a muscle than a yellow No. 2 pencil. Making it work harder only rubs it down faster.

Is not to say that mRNA vaccines to create proxy vectors that better represent those geometries—and only those geometries—that antibodies would have to cope with to intercept live virons are not possible. Only that those are not what we're presently so efficiently producing.

Sam Feb 19, 2025

@beadsland #COVID
better, of course, is to target more immutable regions, while avoiding other issues (a la Denge).

mRNA vaccines allow rapid response to a rapidly evolving pathogen, Other methods have less ability there, though potentially longer durability. But that can be rendered useless by the speed of mutation.

The right answer of course is to use them as an adjunct to societal programs to terminate the virus. When the virus causes severe immune damage and rapid aging, society collapses

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 19, 2025

Yet despite allowing rapid response, only used them to render response moot.

Globally, had enough time to develop eight different non-mRNA vaccines. Only one of which has begrudgingly been allowed through duopoly of moribund Usian market.

Yet in all that time never chose to develop an mRNA vaccine that was tailored to real-world protein-folding conditions.

Instead preferring a fiction. A fairy tale. Did your civic duty? You're good. Free to gesture obscenely at those who didn't.

Sam Feb 19, 2025

@beadsland #COVID

And it appears that the cumulative immune damage from 4+ infections is indeed leading to severe immune damage resembling AIDS.

Add the cognitive decline with each bout, and long COVID. Such a deal.

Why on earth would we want to get in the way of that? Naw. Let evolution weed us out instead. Such a plan.

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 19, 2025

Not a plan, misanthropic or otherwise.

Health supremacism is not planful. Ableism is not planful. A habitude of disdain is not a plan.

Only an echo of tensegrity. A creaking tightening of the bindings of power.

Sam Feb 19, 2025

Btw. No offense to helminths intended. They are wise, noble and compassionate compared to their human analogs.

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 19, 2025

This, this here. This is the habitude of disdain.

An obloquist doxa of illness as evil: undergirds fascism through normalization of ableism.

Sam Feb 19, 2025

Boy have you gotten things wrong. Unsurprising these days. We have gone through the looking glass into the backwards part of Alice's journey.

The fascists are in charge. Mayhem is celebrated. Destruction is venerated. The ignorant rule.

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 19, 2025

The fascists were already in charge.

That the changing of the guard has intensified from quiet part fascism to out loud fascism is a change in volume, not a change in kind.

The looking glass is centuries behind us.

Sam Feb 20, 2025

No fascists were not in charge. They are in charge now with the orange clown and felonious Musk as the head fascists.

Before we had a different sort of malfunction with the neoliberals and neoconservatives (two shades of oligarchic power) playing at being different while genuflecting to the money gods at every turn.

Now we have real fascists in charge. Incredibly stupid fascists, but fascists nine the less.

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 21, 2025

Okay, you've been asked not to bring ableism to my mentions, which includes intellectual ableism.

Clearly, you can't help yourself.

So, let me help you to the door.

[Easy block.]

Kenneth Feb 1, 2025

@beadsland I can only imagine all the posts on the job boards frantically trying to hire DEI scrubbing specialists to fill the urgent government need

sport of sacred spherical cows Feb 1, 2025

Something tells me they've got far more than enough current employees willing to learn that particular skill on the job.