The actual outcome of this election with •the whole US population• as the denominator:
22% voted for Harris
23% voted for Trump
<1% voted for other
26% eligible but did not vote*
28% not eligible to vote
* (whether by choice or by voter suppression)
Numbers might shift a tiny bit as last votes are counted, but this is close to the final tally.
Just sit with that for one quality minute. Think about what stories people are telling about this election. Then think about what stories are true.
Re @davids7’s question: my numbers are back-of-napkin calculations using press reports of current vote tally + sloppy web searching for US population and voting-eligible population. Please take my numbers with the appropriate gain of salt.
The broad “each group is about about 1/4” conclusion should be approximately correct, but don't stare too hard at exact percentages until somebody does this calculation a bit more carefully.
Like…just for starters, if you're walking down the street thinking, “Did HALF of these people really vote for this miserable fascist shitstain?,” the answer to that question is, “No, about a quarter did.”
…Which is still pretty damn depressing, but…well, I find that that thought does give me a substantially different picture of the country I live in.
Several replies fail to distinguish “checked out” from “shut out” when talking about non-voters.
Please, folks, please note the asterisk in the OP. It's an important asterisk.
"half didn't care or wanted to vote but couldn't"
I don't think it helps you to understand this election if you don't realize that a good number of people were not going to vote for either genocideur. That does not mean they "don't care": it means they aren't going to vote for genocide.
@jur0_o @inthehands Or they believed that their vote didn’t matter or it was certain that [candidate] would win anyways.
And, for some people, the effort involved in voting is much higher than for others. That’s why knowing that whether there are gettable votes, since we know this election was determined by a difference of about 115k, can determine where the ground game is spending its time and money.
@inthehands I think it is "accurate enough" to say that eligible voters who didn't vote were "fine with letting others decide". Given the OP's numbers, this means out of eligible voters,
Around 68% were fine with Trump.
Several replies fail to distinguish “checked out” from “shut out” when talking about non-voters. Please, folks, please note the asterisk in the OP. It's an important asterisk.
... Yeah, okay, that does help a bit, thanks. Different perspective.
... I'm going to have a beer anyway.
Cheers, though!
@inthehands @corbden Yeah the only counterpoint to that is the power of demotivation — in propaganda
We had a huge chunk of folks just give up and not vote Dem this time. And they knew full well the consequences.
But demotivational misinformation is totally a thing. They do it because it works.
@inthehands and another quarter could vote, but didn't think this election was significant enough or that there was a significant difference between the candidates that made it worth voting?
Thinking about these people depresses me more than the people who chose Trump. If you clump the people who chose the fascist strongman bent on revenge with the people who didn't think that was worth voting against, then they out number Harris voters 2 to 1.
@inthehands
This is also an error, assuming that of the quarter that didn't vote, they would have all chosen someone else.
Right? What am i missing?
@mav
You're missing that I said “vote for,” nor “like” or “favor” or “hypothetically would have voted for” or similar. Only 22% of the total population •actually voted for• Trump.
And yes, non-voters do of course have preferences! But a lot of grumpy posts here are eager to ascribe very specific and homogenous intent to non-voting or being vote-ineligible, just glibly assuming those preferences, and/or to say that some sizable chunk of the population doesn't really count.
In my view, this is the best data.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/
The VEP/VAP difference is key.
Also lots of turnout figures are out of registered rather than VAP.
@mmm @davids7
I like to include children too, because they are certainly stakeholders. Climate policy in particular will affect them even more than those eligible to vote. The same for non-citizens: they cannot vote, but they are affected by the outcomes of elections.
If we are asking “Who supports the outcome of this election?” and “What kind of mandate does the Trump admin have?,” we must remember those people who, rightly or wrongly, are shut out of voting.
@inthehands @RnDanger in other news, let children vote! i think maybe 7 is old enough. 10 definitely.
who do you think would have polled better amongst children? how would they have adapted their message? fascinating.
@RnDanger @inthehands I’m pretty sure that number has to include children
The other percentages indicate the full population of the US, including kids
I believe it’s around 2-3% of adult population who is ineligible to vote due to felony convictions and I can’t think of any other reason for ineligibility
This seems like one of those rare cases where an extra decimal place or two would actually be really informative, given the closeness of all the numbers.
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