Anthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙Nov 9, 2024

#Trump #Kamala #USA #USPol #UK #Brexit #Labour #Starmer #UKPol #Putin #Ukraine

🚨*Shots Fired by Macron!*🚨

Following the stunning, but unwanted Trump victory, President Macron outlines his future vision for the #EU & #Europe

He acknowledges that Europe can no longer rely on America for its military security & economic stability, & that the EU needs to stand on its own 2 feet & see #America & #China as rivals

North Koreans are fighting #Europeans in Europe, for a Trump backed #Russian dictator

Show threadSchmakerNov 9, 2024

@AnthonyFStevens Macron often says things I want to hear.

Somehow though I don't remember actually doing these...

Show threadAnthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙

@schmaker

That's the issue with the #EU, it has 27 member states who all have to agree, & this includes the pro-Putin Viktor Orban of Hungary.

European politics is complex, but I sense European leaders' patience with Orban is wearing very thin.

Nov 9, 2024 at 12:28pmWeb
Show threadVeza85UENov 9, 2024
@AnthonyFStevens *27 😉
@schmaker Well, given that he's the only one with the military means, I suppose there IS a way he could do some of those things by staging an EUCO coup and taking over during the next summit (with Poland swooping in from the East, we could call it the Barot-Sikorski Pact). But yes, in the meantime, there are 26 other vetoes in the EUCO.
(The bloated vatnik is already a political corpse, the focus on him is misplaced and feeds his ego, imo, he's not that big of a deal.)
Show threadAnthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙Nov 9, 2024

@Veza85UE @schmaker

I think the #EU has had too light a touch with Orban, & he needs to be neutered. He's already thrown several spanners in the EU works in his support of #Putin, so I think #Europe needs to give him a shock & awe reality check sooner rather than later.

Show threadSchmakerNov 9, 2024

@AnthonyFStevens Well, it does not seems to me. Instead of isolating him they bribed him for ages. I don't like that.

Back to Macron - I think he could have done much more on national level or at least rhetorically push the other states to actually do something. But that never happened.

Show threadAnthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙Nov 9, 2024

@schmaker

As I said previously, #Macron is merely one voice out of many competing interests in the #EU. The situation #Europe now faces will test the #European experiment like never before. It's at times like these that real leaders emerge & take centre stage.

They say necessity is the mother of invention. I believe the threat to Europe's security & economic stability will force the EU into action like never before. IF it doesn't, even the staunchest pro-EU advocate will question its purpose.

Show threadVeza85UENov 9, 2024

@schmaker @AnthonyFStevens Like what? What rhetoric pushes frugals to suddenly want to spend money or these 13 countries from suddenly seeing the light of much needed EU reform or Germany to stop being Germany? Do yo have an example of some concrete statement *anyone* could have made to get them to reverse course?

I have ranted at lenght about failure to uphold rule of law and the bribery approach to the kelpto, but, the bribery didn't happen in a void.

Show threadSchmakerNov 9, 2024

@AnthonyFStevens @Veza85UE Well, it wont work "suddenly", but definitely works.

Remember which country in 2022 was about to send only helmets? It took some pressure, but yes - other countries helped Germany to stop Scholzing for a while ;)

If you expect some Polish guy to say some political "abrakadabra" and then suddenly everyone will help, then yes - you're right, that definitely can't work

Show threadVeza85UENov 9, 2024
@schmaker @AnthonyFStevens So "that never happened" actually happened. 😉 I watch a lot of EUCO content, trust me, it happened a lot, publicly, since 2017, imagine in private... and btw, when he said he doesn't agree with their approach to keep telling Putin what we WON'T do to help Ukraine, everyone except 1 Baltic country lined up behind Germany to throw mud at him and dismiss any notion of sending troops to man Ukraine's Western border or trainers there. That was last year.
Show threadVeza85UENov 9, 2024

@schmaker @AnthonyFStevens France held the Presidency of The Other Council (the legislative one) when the 2022 invasion started and so they gathered everyone in Versailles and basically told them the same thing as the other day. They said no, not yet, oh no, can't have debt, debt is bad, tralalala unity to the lowest common denominator.

The message "behind the scenes" was: it will take time, Germany's not ready.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/de/press/press-releases/2022/03/11/the-versailles-declaration-10-11032022/

Show threadAnthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙Nov 9, 2024

@schmaker @Veza85UE

I get your point, but people's perspectives change rapidly when it's their lives under threat.

I'm pretty sure if the #US withdrew from #NATO & the #Russians began ammassing troops around the Belarus/Poland border, this would concentrate the minds of many.

#Putin needs a symbolic win. Keeping the territory he's gained with a guarantee #Ukraine won't join the #EU or #NATO is what he desperately wants to sell as victory to his people.

It seems #Trump will hand this to him

Show threadAnthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙Nov 9, 2024

@Veza85UE @schmaker

The #EU isn't perfect, but let's NOT throw the baby out with the bath water. There are competing views in the institution, with every country advocating for what it sees best for itself.

In terms of how situations change minds, I draw your attention to Sweden & Finland joining NATO. Why now after all these years? Their situations changed with #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, hence so did their security priorities.

Like I said, necessity is the mother of all invention.

Show threadVeza85UENov 9, 2024
@AnthonyFStevens @schmaker Sweden and Finland are 2 of the 3 countries that signed that No to EU reform pact after Feb 2022. They're also part of the crew calling themselves "frugal" (Sweden more than Finland officially), their Social Democrats in government at the time pushed for budget cuts to the EU in the middle of the pandemic because that's what they "sell" at home: no money for the lazy Southerners. Next round of budget negotiations start in 2025. They're governed by the right now.
Show threadVeza85UENov 9, 2024
@AnthonyFStevens @schmaker So now it's FAFO time and they'll have to do at least some of the things they've been refusing to do in the past and they WILL eventually have to do what they did during the pandemic, except they'll make it slower and less efficient than it could be. It's not out of doomerim, in fact I mock anglos & anglo media for covering the EU through the doomer lens all the time. But I am a realist and I'd also like us to not lose track of who fucked up, for future reference.
Show threadAnthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙Nov 9, 2024

@Veza85UE @schmaker

The political landscape is rapidly changing in #Europe. The pandemic, the rise of the #FarRight & the war in #Ukraine have brought to the fore many hoped/wish they'd never see in their lifetimes, yet here we are.

I think the tipping point will be the #American withdrawal from #NATO & #Trump giving #Putin what he wants. Which leaders will sit safe in the belief that a Ukraine style situation couldn't happen to them next?

Show threadAnthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙Nov 9, 2024

@Veza85UE @schmaker

And what followed in February 2022?

Show threadVeza85UENov 9, 2024
@AnthonyFStevens @schmaker Nothing. Some of them have already repeatedly said No to all proposals to adequately finance the EU and the increased investments needed not just to arm ourselves and Ukraine but also to help reconstruction and integration (our budgets are looong-term, next one is 2028-2034).
So now they have until the EU budget negotiations starting next summer to backtrack and accept some (most) of the proposals in the Draghi Report (basically French ideas they've rejected so far).
Show threadAnthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙Nov 9, 2024

@Veza85UE @schmaker

#Russia's invasion of #Ukraine isn't exactly nothing. They didn't know then what they know now, & if #NATO falls apart, who or what defends #Europe from further #Putin aggression?

Mad Vlad has already proved his word can't be trusted. He spent 6 months assuring the world Russia wouldn’t invade #Ukraine, yet here we are... 🤷🏾‍♂️

Show threadVeza85UENov 9, 2024
@AnthonyFStevens @schmaker I highlighted the date of their response in that screenshot for a reason, it was *May* 2022. Versailles summit was in March, also after February, the German and Finnish governments saying noooooo we're not doing another common debt plan was in September 2024, etc. I've also said I think they'll do at least some of the reforms from the Draghi plan, just slowly, incompletely and after much trying to block and slow everything down.
Show threadAnthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙Nov 9, 2024

@Veza85UE @schmaker

I get that, but I honestly believe if the #US withdraws from #NATO, that massively changes matters, as the whole of #Europe's security will be threatened by an emboldened #Russia

A week is a long time in politics, never mind a year or two. There'll be internal political battles too, as the #FarRight support #Putin who's actively supporting & funding them.

The #FarRight want an end to #NATO & for #Putin to prevail & get what he wants. This is gonna get very messy!