Tomi T AhonenOct 27, 2024

So your 'Numbers are my buddies' dude told you yesterday, that after the doldrums of no polling by the major pollsters (except tracking polls) for this last week, we will get every major pollster out with numbers for the race

And here we are. ABC poll. LOOK HOW CLOSELY Harris is matching Biden 2020

Show threadHartmut Neubauer
@tomiahonen I have still another thought. After the elections 2016 and 2020 it was told that the results were more trump-friendly than the latest polls. 2016 polls predicted a victory of Hillary Clinton, but Trump won by electoral collage. 2020 Biden won, but more tight as predicted by the polls. Is it possible that some pollsters add therefore a certain rep-friendly component into their polls? Look at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/ . There are 4 results of TIPP from Oct 7-9 2024. ->
Pennsylvania : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

FiveThirtyEight
Oct 31, 2024 at 2:54pmWeb
Show threadHartmut NeubauerOct 31, 2024
@tomiahonen Two of them are H 48-T 49 (T +1), two H 49-T 45 (H +4). When you click on the pollster, you only read about the T+1 result. Is it possible that the H+4 was the "real" outcome, but the rest was the result of a "rep-friendly" shift? -
Show threadTomi T AhonenOct 31, 2024
@agrinova Can't really comment on thatm Hartmut. The honest pollsters TRY to always report honestly, but their clients may want to distort the top-line reporting of their result (ie the news editor selects one of the screens to push, all polled or registered voters or likely voters.). That would be bias in those who published or paid for poll but not in the original findings, which should be visible in any legitimate poll