@mjrider LOL it is the core of his support. Maga are as I have been saying for years, a pity party for undereducated rural white males (single ones, or divorced).

@pg1958 Yes. Now just please do NOT take these numbers as any kind of Biblical truth. They are indicative of roughly where the race is. It is only one pollster, and we need at least 10 to have numbers we can trust. I promise you we will have MORE than 10 new polls (including this by ABC) for me to analyze on Sunday Nov 3, for my final Mamalamath. THEN we will have a good view. But yes, obviously this election is a total catastrophe for Trumpo, worse than 2020

@agrinova @tomiahonen Same. 😟

@agrinova Great question. So I have worked in or near the polling industry my whole working life, started as a Gallup field pollster part time as a teenager nearly 50 years ago. So in the 2016 cycle (Trump-Hillary Clinton) one pollster was reporting systematically absurd numbers, completely opposite of all others. That was Rasmussen. They were eventually caught even of doing fake polls for Trump. By 2020 cycle (Biden-Trump) there were several such paid vanity pollsters,

@agrinova (continued) this cycle there are FAR MORE such fake vanity pollsters or even reputable pollsters reporting fake numbers. The 'honesty' measurement cannot be done until election day. So if a pollster reports WILDLY absurd numbers for 6 months, but their FINAL poll is 'honest' and near the election result, they will get a 'good grade' by all who measure the accuracy, and they get good business in coming years, and will be included in all the polling averages again 4 years later.

@agrinova Then Trump just this weekend confessed in the Rogan podcast (3 hour Trumpobabble) that he pays half a million dollars per fake poll, to get the numbers changed a few points in his favor, and Trump himself does not think they conduct any actual interviews, they just take his money. And it is of course not his OWN money, that is Maga money, the campaign pays for those fake polls

@agrinova (cont) so after Rasmussen corrupted the system in 2016, the next variation was the yo-yo polling, like CNN and Fox like to do. They release one honest poll, and a few weeks later a total lunatic poll, and on the new poll, they claim that oh no, Trump is now ahead of Biden or oh no, Trump has now caught up with Kamala Harris. That (fake) poll gets massive coverage by all including their rivals. Then in a few weeks, they get real numbers, ignore those, and then yo-yo again..

@agrinova (cont even more) so you asked about TIPP. I thought they were legitimate. They were exposed as total fraud in what I call now the 'cliffhanger' poll. They ran typical numbers with solid Kamala Harris lead up to last week. Their number was believable so everybody trusted TIPP. Then suddenly last week, when Trump was doing his penis shit, they released a 'catastrophic' poll for Kamala Harris, as if HER numbers had collapsed, just to protect Trump in the AVERAGES

@agrinova All of these frauds can continue indefinitely by any pollster, as long as their FINAL poll (this week now) is honest. Nobody can ever 'prove' they were lying before, even though anyone who understands math, can see who are the frauds. It is a problem in polling that was mostly corrupted by Trump, and the first significant damage came via Rasmussen in 2016 cycle. Looking back, it is clear to see Rasmussen was already fraudulent in previous cycle, 2012 (so Obama-Romney)

@tomiahonen Two of them are H 48-T 49 (T +1), two H 49-T 45 (H +4). When you click on the pollster, you only read about the T+1 result. Is it possible that the H+4 was the "real" outcome, but the rest was the result of a "rep-friendly" shift? -