"Uncertainty about the future and concerns about the ecological impact of the growing human #population were key factors also identified by research.
But concerns also differed in different parts of the world, Dillarstone said. “There was a concern that came out only in Zambia and Ethiopia, which was about a family’s ability to subsist and acquire resources,” she said."
Back in the 1960s and 1970s, the "population bomb" was a Thing.
Now, not so much.
Yes, the world population is still growing. But the *rate* of growth is decreasing fast, and most demographers predict a population peak this century.
One of the best places for a reality check is this #OurWorldInData page:
https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth
Includes a link to visualisations, some interactive.
Population growth varies across the planet. You can look it up for a specific place by searching for #TotalFertilityRate (the average number of babies per woman) for that place.
The graph below shows that TFR is
1.64 United States
1.40 Canada
1.28 China
For a stable population, TFR = 2.1. Meaning, the US population is growing slightly only because of immigration.
In South Korea, TFR = 0.84.
I learned about population, growth, and total fertility rate from this TED talk by the late Hans Rosling, a scientist with an irrepressible way of talking about statistics as not only interesting but exciting and funny.
It's from 2006 but the trends in population growth have continued since then.
https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen?language=en
Global Population Crash Isn't Sci-Fi Anymore
"The European Commission’s Centre of Expertise on #Population and Migration projects that the global population will peak at 9.8 billion in the 2070s.
It is simply because, all over the world, the #TotalFertilityRate (TFR) — the number of live children the average woman bears in her lifetime — has been falling since the 1970s. In one country after another, it has dropped under the 2.1 value of the 'replacement rate'."
"Generally, to replace and maintain current populations, a birth rate of 2.1 children per woman is required.
According to a 2024 US Central Intelligence Agency publication comparing fertility rates around the world, in India, the 1950 #BirthRate of 6.2 has plummeted to just above 2; it is projected to fall to 1.29 by 2050 and just 1.04 by 2100. The fertility rate in Nepal is now just 1.85; in Bangladesh, 2.07."
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/10/13/choosing-to-be-child-free-in-an-apocalyptic-south-asia
@CelloMomOnCars recovering physicist Tom Murphy is doing interesting analysis on his blog. TL;DR: "It is fascinating enough just to see that peak population might well happen before 2050. Even under the U.N.’s fantasy TFR evolution, alterations to the survival trends alone could credibly bring the peak to the first part of this century."
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/06/peak-population-projections/
I'm a fan of Murphy! and yes, it seems every time you look the year of peak population has shifted closer to today.
The article he links to is very good: why the handwringing over the coming "baby bust" is misplaced at best.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2024/06/04/making-more-babies-to-drive-economic-growth/
But it's a good idea to plan for it now.
Governments worldwide are in a race to see which one can encourage the most women to have the most babies. Hungary is slashing income tax for women with four or more children. Russia is offering women with 10 or more children a “Mother-Heroine” award. Greece, Italy, and South Korea are bribing women with attractive baby bonuses. China has instituted a three-child policy. Iran has outlawed free contraceptives and vasectomies. Japan has joined forces with the fertility industry to infiltrate schools to promote early childbearing. A leading UK demographer has proposed taxing the childless. Religious myths are preventing African men from getting vasectomies. A eugenics-inspired Natal conference just took place in the U.S., a nation leading the way in taking away reproductive rights.
CelloMom On Cars
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