tanteThe "AI is gonna make programmers more massively more efficient myth" is hitting reality. And not surviving.
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sorry-genai-is-not-going-to-10x-computer
Caspar C. Mierau@tante You cannot deconstruct the origins of "10x" often enough.
> The original study that found huge variations in individual programming productivity was conducted in the late 1960s by Sackman, Erikson, and Grant (1968). They studied professional programmers with an average of 7 years’ experience and found that the ratio of initial coding time between the best and worst programmers was about 20 to 1; the ratio of debugging times over 25 to 1; of program size 5 to 1; and of program execution speed about 10 to 1. They found no relationship between a programmer’s amount of experience and code quality or productivity.
Jan D@leitmedium @tante Is the study and the other linked sources not supporting the 10x claim rather than deconstructing it? (or did I miss(understand) some relevant context here?)
@simulo @tante It was a bit misleading, yes. The source from tante relies on the core idea of 10x as people with high outcome. The original study also stresses out that there is this phenomen while you can argue that this might also be a capitalists dream of measuring peoples output. If I remember correctly the initial studies were based on interviews of managers of coding people...
@leitmedium @tante Briefly looking at the study, it seems it was a psychology-style experiment.
I looked it up because I read your toot just after stumbling on Brooks’ "The Mythical Man Month" citing the study (which might have contributed to the popularity of the concept)
Being a psychological study and focussed on output it will ignore other factors like people supporting each other – teaching someone else will not increase my personal productivity etc.
@leitmedium @tante cue "contempt for the glue people": https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2021/08/28/contempt-for-the-glue-people/
John Flournoy@simulo @leitmedium @tante fair, just want to say psychology also studies things like how collaboration etc improves stuff. :D
@flourn0 @leitmedium @tante yes – might have been more precise as: "quantitative study measuring produced lines of code by a single person"
maschmi@leitmedium @simulo @tante and wasn't there this "Coding War Games" survey started in 1977 which somehow did show individual difference by an order of magnitude not being related by language, experience or salary and did not find this astounding. Much more of note was, they found that "It mattered a lot who your pair mate was.". And also that " The top performers' space is
quieter, more private, better protected from interruption, and there is more of it." https://www.gwern.net/docs/cs/2001-demarco-peopleware-whymeasureperformance.pdf
quieter, more private, better protected from interruption, and there is more of it." https://www.gwern.net/docs/cs/2001-demarco-peopleware-whymeasureperformance.pdf
@leitmedium What's wild was that it was low-performing outliers that led to this 10x idea! It's like, there are some 1/10x programmers. And that's just a quirk of how these things tend to be distributed!