Jason YoungSep 25, 2024
David Chisnall (*Now with 50% more sarcasm!*)

Imagine you’re in a casino. Someone walks up to the roulette table, puts $1000 on 14. They win! They now have $50,000. Now they move to another table, and put $500 on red. They lost, so they put $1,000 on red. They lose again. They put $2,000 on red. They win! Now they have $50,500! They’re such a winner!

You didn’t see that they put $1,000 on 14 every day for the past twenty days. They only won because they are able to afford to lose $20,000. They’re actually only $30,500 up, but that’s still a big win. You also didn’t see the ten other people who tried the same strategy, but never landed on a table that came up with their number.

This is the kind of person that Silicon Valley idolises.

Sep 21, 2024 at 7:24amWeb
Show threadRuxbat! 🍉🦇Sep 21, 2024
@david_chisnall @soatok and it’s never their money, that’s the best part
Show threadTobin BakerSep 21, 2024
@david_chisnall only VCs can afford risk-neutrality, founders cannot. that’s the basic scam.
Show threadineitiSep 21, 2024

@david_chisnall of course xkcd has you covered:

https://xkcd.com/1827/

It's about lottery tickets, but last time I checked my statistics, the survivorship bias is the same...

Survivorship Bias

xkcd
Show threadTim Ward ⭐🇪🇺🔶 #FBPESep 22, 2024

@david_chisnall The VCs don't know who's going to win so they have to spread their bets. Nobody else knows either, otherwise the VCs would buy that information and only bet on the winners.

So most start-ups fail and lose money for their backers. The alternative is no funding, thus no start-ups, thus the few winners that would have emerged never do.

Show threadDavid Chisnall (*Now with 50% more sarcasm!*)Sep 22, 2024
@TimWardCam That’s true, but the successful startups are often not run by people who were particularly insightful, or good leaders, they’re run by people who happened to be in the right place to be successful, including having the right backing. You don’t see the ten other people who didn’t manage to land the right initial contract, or the people who tried to build the same thing two years earlier before the technology was quite ready. And then, once they’ve been successful once, they acquire a bizarre mystique in the valley, as if the company that made a lot of money succeeded only because they were amazing visionaries.
Show threadBenAvelingSep 22, 2024
@david_chisnall @TimWardCam successful innovators generally are insightful, good leaders, etc, etc, who also happened to be in the right place, and at the right time. Luck is necessary. Luck isn’t sufficient.
Show threadCassandrichSep 22, 2024
@TimWardCam @david_chisnall "No startups" sounds like an excellent outcome for everyone but the VCs and a very small portion of founders.
Show threadTim Ward ⭐🇪🇺🔶 #FBPESep 22, 2024

@dalias @david_chisnall So no Acorn, then, and hence no ARM, and hence no mobile phones etc.

Well, no doubt some people would think that an improvement 😂

Show threadCassandrichSep 22, 2024
@TimWardCam @david_chisnall None of that follows.
Show threadTim Ward ⭐🇪🇺🔶 #FBPESep 22, 2024
@dalias @david_chisnall One day Acorn didn't exist, the next day it did. I don't know what else you'd call it.
Show threadCassandrichSep 22, 2024

@TimWardCam @david_chisnall Nothing about the existence of mobile phones depends or depended on the existence of ARM. They were just the vendor whose component happened to be in the right place at the right time. Any other would have worked just as well.

That's independent of whether Acorn was ever a "startup", which has a specific meaning in this domain. I don't know their early history.

Show threadTim Ward ⭐🇪🇺🔶 #FBPESep 22, 2024
@dalias @david_chisnall Would you care to suggest the alternatives that were also available at the right time with the right combination of price, speed and power consumption?
Show threadCassandrichSep 22, 2024
@TimWardCam @david_chisnall Probably the SH4A.
Show threadTim Ward ⭐🇪🇺🔶 #FBPESep 22, 2024
@dalias @david_chisnall I'm not aware of any technical meaning of the world "start-up". In plain English it's used to describe a company that was started from scratch, rather than spun off from a larger company, for the stages of its existence from creation until some nebulous point where it is "clearly" a serious going concern.
Show threadRichard BarrellSep 22, 2024
@TimWardCam in the context of this specific conversation, by "startup" all the other people here mean "VC funded" or at least "in the silicon valley zeitgeist and mostly behaving in a typical silicon valley startup like manner". (Hence all the gambling analogies.)
Show threadRichard BarrellSep 22, 2024
@TimWardCam you can argue that they are using the words wrong if you like but please don't? It's a waste of both your time and theirs.
Show threadTim Ward ⭐🇪🇺🔶 #FBPESep 22, 2024
@0x2ba22e11 I was trying to work out what was going on as the conversation didn't make sense to me. Attaching different meanings to the language could be an explanation, yes.
Show threadTim Ward ⭐🇪🇺🔶 #FBPESep 22, 2024
@0x2ba22e11 So ... if a company has started up, but hasn't got any VC funding (yet), it's not a "start up" in Silicon Valley terms? - it is in #Cambridge terms.
Show threadOld Man in the ShoeSep 22, 2024
@david_chisnall 14 is my number at roulette, Pete Rose!
Show threadHugo Slabbert ⚠️Sep 22, 2024
@david_chisnall this was a great interactive walk through to drive the point home for folks:
https://pudding.cool/2022/12/yard-sale/
Why the super rich are inevitable

Why some mathematicians argue the economy is designed to create a few super rich people – unless we stop it.

The Pudding