I don't believe in dogmas
Sean CastenOK, Trump got his ass kicked by Harris this week. That’s great but it’s time to move on. Specifically, to the huge national security / malign actor interference risk that Donald John presents as early as a week from tomorrow. Thread:
1. A man who owes lots of money to lawyers and adjudicated civil fines could soon be able to start selling some or all of his 114M shares in a company that is a trainwreck as a stock but still massively overvalued. https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/09/06/when-can-donald-trump-sell-djt-stock-heres-what-to-know-as-truth-social-hits-new-lows/
2. What would you pay for a company with $3.4M in revenue, is blowing through $33M of cash per year & has negative earnings? If you said “zero” you’ll agree that #DJT is overvalued. The current $3B market cap is why it is MASSIVELY overvalued. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/key-statistics/
3. Markets are not dumb, and the collapse in value in recent months does suggest that the smart money is coming home to roost. Donny John’s stake, once worth $6B will be lucky to be north of $2B when his lock up period clears.
4. But that’s still $2B more than the average Joe. And to be clear, Grifty McGriftface cannot liquidate all at that price IN THE ABSENCE OF FRAUD. There are a little over 200M shares outstanding so his 114M can’t be sold without collapsing the price.
5. This is the point where we need to stop talking about market fundamentals, logical valuations and rational actor theory. SCOTUS has made it clear that they treat him as above the law, he is a grifter devoid of ethics, hostile foreign actors like him and he owes a lot of $.
6. He owns something that is devoid of fundamental value that he can monetize for something north of $0 only if he screws existing shareholders. If you are holding on the assumption that he won’t do that, you are the proverbial fish at the poker table.
7. But there’s another risk. What the hell is DJT CEO Devin Nunes doing in North Macedonia? https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-media-ceo-devin-nunes-north-macedonia-truthsocial-hristijan-mickoski
8. We know that malign foreign actors understand that Trump is financially compromised and that he is easily manipulated. They know he’s cash strapped and has access to $2B IF he can find a buyer for his (otherwise soon-to-be) penny stock.
9. That means we should be paying really close attention to the volume traded over the next week. (bars on this chart).
10. Remember - Donny Bankruptcy got started when his dad bought a bunch of casino chips and didn’t redeem them. He lost money running a casino. He is not good at business. He is good at cheating. https://www.motherjones.com/2020-elections/2020/09/trump-files-fred-trump-funneled-cash-donald-using-casino-chips/
11. Shady foreign actors know this too. They have the internet. And they’ve watched the Russians launder money through his real estate operations for a long time. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/21/how-russian-money-helped-save-trumps-business/
12. Probabilistically, we would be fools NOT to assume that he is actively looking for a foreigner to buy his shares in exchange for some future quid pro quo. This is why Nunes’ trip looks so shady. And why we should be watching trading volumes over this coming week so closely.
13. Our office will be keeping all eyes on this. But if you care about democracy, if you think the good guys won the Cold War and want to keep it that way… you can help. Watch the $DJT market activity and report any shady activity. If you are holding $DJT, don’t be the fish.
14. I hope this is a fire drill. But I am nervous - and you should be too. Don’t sleep on this week. /fin
Post script - read this piece from Zeke Faux about one of Trump's other on-going grifts. It's never been about investor value... https://x.com/ZekeFaux/status/1834580206557749311
This is the guy putting Trump's crypto business together. You'd be better off lighting your money on fire than investing with them - at least then you'd save a few pennies on your heating bill.
Karyn Campbell@SeanCasten Investing in anything involving Trump is risky. You won't make money, that's for sure.
@SeanCasten Crypto ought to be illegal anyway.
Kevin Leecaster@SeanCasten
Plus, I heard something about a Russian entity being involved in Trump's crypto venture too, but haven't verified that claim.
Plus, I heard something about a Russian entity being involved in Trump's crypto venture too, but haven't verified that claim.
@SeanCasten
Thanks for posting that thread on $DJT and letting us know that congresspeople like you are monitoring the situation.
Of course, you are probably also monitoring his other upcoming illegal contribution scheme in the cryptocurrency realm as well.
We've got to make it so people like him and his co-conspirators do not belive that they can get away with this kind of stuff and the consequences for trying are not worth the risk.
TC Won't Give In To Lies@SeanCasten
💯% that DJT stock was always a scam to funnel money to him.
I'm certain he's already used locked up stock to back loans the he will default on. Of course, he's going to find some dirty buyer for his worthless stock.
But you missed one key question - how did the SEC ever approve the merger of this scam. There were multiple, obvious violations of SPAC rules, no real income, dodgy foreign founders and of course the conman that is Trump. Pls investigate the SEC decision ...now.
@SeanCasten that's for sure and the GOP doesn't see it.
JonChevreau 🇨🇦@SeanCasten The trend seems clear
June Casagrande
Ralph058 (S/he/it) AF4EZ@SeanCasten If TFG sells next week, it only means he knows he is going to lose the election. Because he knows that if he wins, he can move all government social media to Truth and force the states by withholding money until they do and SCOTUS won't do a damned thing about it.
Even if he loses, he will hold out until January 20th figuring he can keep up the scam that he won.
No, I don't think TFG will be cashing out.
Even if he loses, he will hold out until January 20th figuring he can keep up the scam that he won.
No, I don't think TFG will be cashing out.
Luka Rubinjoni@SeanCasten Churning fake news is a thriving business in Macedonia...
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190528-i-was-a-macedonian-fake-news-writer
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190528-i-was-a-macedonian-fake-news-writer
Bob Davidsonmoney laundering?
Rufus J. Cooter@SeanCasten What I don't understand is: the hell are they spending $33M/y on? Coders? It's a Masto fork! Moderators? Hosting? Nunes' salary?
Log 🪵@RufusJCooter @SeanCasten More closely held companies sell it overpriced services, to convert liquid shareholder investment cash into obligations that will be worthless to creditors.
@log @SeanCasten Ah.
So, fraud?
Because what you're describing here sounds an awful lot like "fraud" to my lay-person's ears...
@RufusJCooter @SeanCasten It's only fraud if the accountant tries to hide it, I think. There are a lot of ways to legally loot a company. Looting a publicly traded company just requires more paperwork. Which someone might read and then start squealing about, but that's the risk inherent in having a wider, deeper pool of marks^Winvestors.
@log @SeanCasten "It's only fraud if the accountant tries to hide it, I think."
Not the area of law that I specialize in, and IANAL, but as I understand it: depends on where you're incorporated!
"There are a lot of ways to legally loot a company. Looting a publicly traded company just requires more paperwork."
Again, outside of my bailiwick, and IANAL, but as I understand it, this may be true, in some jurisdictions, but in others, it is decidedly not. So, where the acts took place matters!
Adrian Cockcroft@SeanCasten I wonder how much of the $3.4M revenue traces back to the Russian funding that was just cut off?
Bytebro 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇬🇱@SeanCasten Grifter needs to cash-out before the marks, obvs.