1. A man who owes lots of money to lawyers and adjudicated civil fines could soon be able to start selling some or all of his 114M shares in a company that is a trainwreck as a stock but still massively overvalued. https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/09/06/when-can-donald-trump-sell-djt-stock-heres-what-to-know-as-truth-social-hits-new-lows/

2. What would you pay for a company with $3.4M in revenue, is blowing through $33M of cash per year & has negative earnings? If you said “zero” you’ll agree that #DJT is overvalued. The current $3B market cap is why it is MASSIVELY overvalued. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/key-statistics/

3. Markets are not dumb, and the collapse in value in recent months does suggest that the smart money is coming home to roost. Donny John’s stake, once worth $6B will be lucky to be north of $2B when his lock up period clears.

4. But that’s still $2B more than the average Joe. And to be clear, Grifty McGriftface cannot liquidate all at that price IN THE ABSENCE OF FRAUD. There are a little over 200M shares outstanding so his 114M can’t be sold without collapsing the price.

5. This is the point where we need to stop talking about market fundamentals, logical valuations and rational actor theory. SCOTUS has made it clear that they treat him as above the law, he is a grifter devoid of ethics, hostile foreign actors like him and he owes a lot of $.

6. He owns something that is devoid of fundamental value that he can monetize for something north of $0 only if he screws existing shareholders. If you are holding on the assumption that he won’t do that, you are the proverbial fish at the poker table.

7. But there’s another risk. What the hell is DJT CEO Devin Nunes doing in North Macedonia? https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-media-ceo-devin-nunes-north-macedonia-truthsocial-hristijan-mickoski

8. We know that malign foreign actors understand that Trump is financially compromised and that he is easily manipulated. They know he’s cash strapped and has access to $2B IF he can find a buyer for his (otherwise soon-to-be) penny stock.

9. That means we should be paying really close attention to the volume traded over the next week. (bars on this chart).

10. Remember - Donny Bankruptcy got started when his dad bought a bunch of casino chips and didn’t redeem them. He lost money running a casino. He is not good at business. He is good at cheating. https://www.motherjones.com/2020-elections/2020/09/trump-files-fred-trump-funneled-cash-donald-using-casino-chips/