UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/1
I wrote the world's first History of the Battle of Kyiv in this War in Ukraine, that described the first month and first victory against Russia. My Thread on Twitter was 55 Tweets long, and was read by over 2 million people
So I kinda 'know' about this war, maybe a bit
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/2
The Russians invaded Ukraine two and a half years ago. The first battle was for the Capital city, Kyiv. That battle lasted a month. Ukraine defeated Russia totally, and destroyed, captured or kicked out all Russians who had advanced to Kyiv. They fled to Belarus across border
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/3
So please understand, the horrible war continues in Ukraine. It sat in total stalemate for nearly 2 years, recently Ukraine has managed to get some advances. The war has a long way to go. But the DECISIVE BATTLE of this war, was the Battle for Kyiv. Putin intended a 3 day war
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/4
Yes, that is the absolute unhyped truth. Putin prepared for a 3 day war. His 3 day war has run now for 2 & a half years with no end in sight, but a war Putin cannot win
Note. the '3 Day War' was the 'in case things go bad' the worst scenario
His Generals promised 4 HOUR war
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/5
How can you have a FOUR HOUR war?
It was planned a SNEAK ATTACK
100 helicopters carrying 3,000 special forces troops, would seize Antonov Airport (large airport of Kyiv) and then an airlift already airborne would land with 10,000 troops and their armor
Drive downtown..
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/6
The special airborne division, with armor, would land at Antonov Airport, drive to the Presidential Palace before morning rush hour, put Zelensky at gunpoint on Television to declare he surrenders. If not. Kill him, have his predecessor, Yanukovich (Putin puppet) do it
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/7
That is real. This battle happened in early hours of 24th of February, with a hundred helicopters flying low into Ukraine air space, and then a big battle for the Antonov airport ie Hostomel
What ENDED the 4 Hour War, was that Ukraine had the AIRPORT DEFENSE FORCE deployed
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/8
Russia expected a surprise attack, to easily seize this big airport, with about 3,000 special forces paratroop premium soldiers. Instead the Ukrainians were ready, and the Russians landed into an ambush
The jet transports already in air, had to turn back, fly to Belarus
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/9
Understand how horribly close the defeat was. Russia - Putin - planned a HUGE invasion force to fly as surprise to Ukraine's capital, seize the President, force him to surrender - or shoot him, and put their puppet in charge - to surrender
THAT was the plan for the 4 hr war
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/10
Russian Generals knew this was an bold plan but it might not succeed (the 4 hour war) so they had a
BACKUP PLAN
The 3 Day War. They ALSO arranged a LAND-based invasion force of tanks to rush across from Belarus border to Kyiv - and ENCIRCLE Kyiv, lay siege to it
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/11
So SIMULTANEOUSLY to the 4 hour war plan, with helicopters and transport planes
a parallel LAND INVASION rushed across Ukraine, for one day, to get to edge of Kyiv. then be refueled. Then encircle Kyiv in the next 2 days to lay siege to the capital, force its surrender
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/12
Both of these war plans were STANDARD Russian (Soviet) war methods. The invasions of Afghanistan and Chechnya were conducted in these methods. The helicopters, the giant transport planes flew into Ukraine. The tanks rushed over land towards Kyiv. It was all a sneak attack
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/13
This SECOND plan of Putin to conquer Ukraine, the 'backup plan' in case the 4 hour war failed - the 3 Day War - ALSO failed
The Urkainian army very cunningly tricked and delayed the Russian advance, so that they NEVER encircled Kyiv while they were bicycle distance from it
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About 30,000 Russian soldiers in their latest tanks, supported by immense air power, attempted to encircle Kyiv, but failed to do so. 5 weeks later they were so defeated, the remnants fled back over the border to Belarus
Ukraine won the Battle of Kyiv in about 5 weeks
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You understand what sneak attack means in war - Pearl Harbor. Imagine if the USA had known three days prior, exactly where the Japanese fleet was, and that they were going to bomb Pearl Harbor. ALL the Japanese planes would have been shot down - AND their carriers sunk
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What Ukraine got, before the 4 Hour War and 3 Day War invasions started - was ADVANCE WARNING that Russia is attacking - AND TROOP NUMBERS and WEAPON TYPES. 100 helicopters here. 300 transport jets here. An invasion tank army at this point across the border...
USA did that
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/17
This is what I knew, monitoring the Ukraine 'threat of war' before the invasion
The previous week EVERYBODY in Europe said Putin will not invade. Putin said so. NATO said so. And Ukraine said so
TWO DAYS before invasion, Ukraine STOPPED saying Russia is not going to invade
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/18
I also knew it was the Americans who convinced Ukraine that the 'sabre-rattling' of Russia near Ukraine's border was not that, it was a genuine invasion
I knew it was the Americans who made Ukraine change its mind, that war was coming
I did not know WHEN or WHO
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/19
I am a math guy. I knew it was not NATO European intel that changed Ukraine's mind. I knew - this was public knowledge back then - that the data had come from the Americans. I thought - probably 3 days before the invasion
We now know the truth. Because of what we found out
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/20
I needed you to understand the CONTEXT of this item of news and analysis in this shared Tweet (image). We know now it was Kamala Harris who took the intel to Ukraine's President Zelensky. VERY top secret US intel capacity not usually shared
She got permission from Biden
UKRAINE INTEL THREAD/21
So now we know. The US (satellite) intel (best in world) was shared with Zelensky five days before the invasion started. That intel briefing CHANGED Ukraine's mind, that a war is coming - it allowed them to put an ambush in place - that SAVED their capital from falling
@tomiahonen Not that I don’t trust @tomiahonen to have good sources, but I had to dig into this one for verification, rather than trust a screenshot of a toot from someone I’d never heard of called Frank T.
Here’s the article where @[email protected] ‘s info came from, a must-read about how #KamalaHarris got her global policy and national security training. We’ll be in good hands in the Harris administration.
I somehow missed that old thread of yours. Thanks for this one though!
I’m not a war strategist by any means but after the start of the invasion, I recall anxiously waking up each day hoping Kiev had not fallen.
I too was fascinated by Harris’ revelation Thursday that it was SHE who conveyed the intelligence about Russia’s sneak attack and got Ukraine to prepare. It was a courageous and high level mission.
When all the specifics are disclosed, I’m sure it will be fascinating. Harris probably needed permission from intelligence authorities to reveal as much as she did Thursday.
#HarrisWalz #KamalaHarris
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