The Russian reaction to Ukraine's invasion of Kursk is somewhat misunderstood. They may be slow, but they are not paralyzed. We should expect them to escalate the war, but that will require the use of conscripts. They are progressing slowly to avoid domestic backlash.
https://youtu.be/u_80rUKItGc
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@anderspuck look forward to watching and hearing your thoughts on it
@anderspuck thanks for another good update.
@anderspuck what about the tactics russia would use to liberate Kursk, you see them heavily use artillery and pulverize every settlement they liberate?
As there are russians within the occupied Kursk, ain't there a big risk they will spread the message how the russian forces just don't care who dies?
@aho @anderspuck I think there is an additional factor of weather. Soon the cold will come and that tends to change the fighting tactics. Time is not on Putin’s side here.
@jeremiah_ @anderspuck something I haven't noticed much of, the use of ski based troops during winter time, not saying it will be a game changer but could improve possibilities to move faster with infantry from and to battle areas.
@aho @anderspuck It’s the frozen ground that makes it hard to dig trenches and the deep mud in the Spring. Those tend to be the things that stymie troop movement from what I understand.
@jeremiah_ @anderspuck maybe I'm too rotted into how the Finns try to fight, which is a lot of fast hit and run, not necessarily to take over a trench, but make the enemies life as hellish as possible.
@aho @anderspuck The Finns fight well and made life a living hell for the Russians in The Winter War. But Ukraine is not Finland and the Ukrainians have a Russian style of fighting, although they seem to be innovating a style all their own.

@jeremiah_ @anderspuck I think Ukraine is a mix of fighting styles, old soviet to a western mobile fighting style, I think we will see less of the soviet style for two reason, Ukraine do not have the artillery to do it and the officers who are Soviet trained are getting older.

When Ukraine gets better on AI drones, we will see yet another type of fighting.

@aho @anderspuck
Why risks? Just another way to die for the Motherland.

@anderspuck In a recent video you stated Putin would want to avoid using conscripts, as it would increase the chance of discontent among the Moscow / St P bourgeoise as their kids disappear, or come home with major injuries - or in zinc boxes. ISW seem to think they're only pulling small, irregular groups out of the main SE fronts to fight in Kursk. Putting that all together -- could it be Putin's tactic in Kursk is to allow the Ukrainians to over-extend their logistics or spread forces over too large an area to robustly defend?

I also wonder if the same factors that make Ru's incursion north of Kharkiv hard to dislodge will make the Kursk forces hard to dislodge.
[ /uninformed guesswork ]

Edit: ISW and others also speak of confused / unplanned Ru response, eg., with the FSB being given some responsibility but other orgs having C2 involvement. Occam's Razor implies slow & confused Ru response is less a deliberate tactic, than a consequence of incapacity to do otherwise (given Putin's style of governance.)

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian officials are taking steps to consolidate and coordinate the management of ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast while continuing to highlight Ukrainian advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued advancing in

Institute for the Study of War

@anderspuck

Well, for a short special military operation this is taking terribly long… 😉

(and shows the incompetence of the Russian Army and the regime moreover painfully clear)

@anderspuck In my opinion the correct response for Russia would be slow systematic pressure on the invading forces while attempting to exploit weaknesses on other fronts as a lot of most experienced Ukraine forces are tied under Kursk.

It seems this is what Kremlin does.

@shuro @anderspuck I also expect some show of force like massive bombing Ukrainian power plants again.
They like to do it in response to some Ukrainian action.

Also there was no massive bombing by Russian strategic aviation after Kursk offense started.
@yura @anderspuck To be honest I don't feel too much outrage in response of this either. Unlike some other (sometimes less militarily significant) events like that missile getting shot over the beach. There's more like "it is war and shit happens, so what" attitude and the government tries to keep it this way.
@shuro @anderspuck well. I'm not happy to be right. But I was right.

There's currently a massive attack on power systems.
@anderspuck Ukraine will face ruzzian conscripts motivated only by putin threatening they’re families if they don’t go. Poorly equipped and untrained with 1934 weapons…sorry, relics to fight with. All to satisfy putlers goal of eternally being know as putin the stupid.

@anderspuck

It wouldn't surprise me at all if russia would do the same to take back the occupied parts in the Kursk region as they have been and still are doing to advance into Ukraine: completely obliterate *) the territory at the pace of a snail, taking again huge losses.

Putin couldn't care less about what happens to the russian population outside Moscow and St. Petersburg.

*) and of course blame Ukraine

@anderspuck this is way better than running tanks in to minefields. Something they should have done from the beginning if west would have let them.
@anderspuck
I like how you have managed to present or allude to a lot of complex material while keeping our eyes on two fundamental issues, namely, space and manpower, the last with critical domestic political entanglements. Including the last factor, that makes three main points. That's an ideal amount, pedagogically speaking, for your viewers to process, take with them, and apply in their encounters with other material. (1/2) #RussiaUkraineWar
@anderspuck My one issue is probably a non-issue in this context: I hate the term escalation because of the role it has served in slow-walking NATO military assistance to Ukraine. But your specific use of the term is very clear in this context. In fact, this might be a way to help undercut its emotive power in Western political circles. (2/2)
Well argued, Anders. Yes, putin has a plan of response. It may be a bad plan, one that Ukraine was able to predict even, but a plan nonetheless. And lots of young, badly trained russian barely-men will die as a result. Ukraine's hope is that it will cause a revolt - though if there are no men capable and experienced enough to prosecute that revolution left, it will fall to the russian women to do so.
RT @anderspuck
https://krigskunst.social/@anderspuck/112987538917639093
Anders Puck Nielsen (@[email protected])

The Russian reaction to Ukraine's invasion of Kursk is somewhat misunderstood. They may be slow, but they are not paralyzed. We should expect them to escalate the war, but that will require the use of conscripts. They are progressing slowly to avoid domestic backlash. https://youtu.be/u_80rUKItGc

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@osma @anderspuck I think an even bigger result of this Ukrainian incursion is to scratch the idea that Russia has a "red line" beyond which it will use nukes. It does not - it's all bluff.

We need to just give Ukraine all the weapons right now and stop fretting about escalation.