If anyone’s wondering what the dude who sang “chocolate rain” is up to these days, he’s dropping absolute bangers about housing and he’s fucking right
@Daojoan This isn't "truth," this is NIMBY bullshit masquerading as social policy. He's proposing taxes on rentals, but not on home ownership, so renters will end up paying more than homeowners. Then he repeats the canard about vacant housing, when American housing vacancy rates are low; New York has a regular housing survey with a line item for units that are vacant because they're held for occasional or recreational use, and they're 1% of the supply. Less NIMBYism, more housing construction.
@Alon
"Poison pill" means the taxes are so great on the rental owners that it becomes untenable to own a house just to rent it to others. That doesn't increase rents, it increases available housing supply for people to own a home that the can live in.
He's proposing a tax so people can become homeowners.
@RedOct Not "can" but "required to," because not everyone can get the required credit or even wants to tether themselves to one risky asset. In practice, taxes on landlords that are not levied on homeowners exist (for example, the American mortgage tax credit, or differential property tax rates, or capital gains taxes exemptions), and what they do in practice is redistribute wealth to homeowners from renters and not so much from commercial landlords.
@Alon @RedOct you'd think that proposing "let's make it impossible to rent a flat and let's force everyone to buy one so they have somewhere to live" would be seen as absolutely ridiculous and not a banger, but here we are
@pony @Alon @RedOct Especially when you consider that Americas housing is rotting because nobody can afford to maintain their property. Condos aren't any better. The one I was in needed a new roof. But the condo association only had $20k in the bank. Each condo building needed $30k for a roof... how do you fix that? Raise the monthly condo fees from $200 to $2000/month ???
@feld @RedOct @Alon this is a policy designed to appeal to shortly after-college kids with some cash on hand but not remotely enough to buy own housing who don't want to hurt older middle-class-ish family members by any extra tax or inconvenience, so a total banger... on twitter
@pony @RedOct @Alon people are also not aware of these issues either:

> By now, everyone should be aware of the moisture problems that exist in homes, and especially in stucco-clad homes. Our own testing shows that 90% of stucco homes built in the mid-80’s through the 90’s have major moisture problems causing structural damages that most people can’t even see. While construction practices and codes have improved over the last 15 years, the old adage “history repeats itself” comes to mind when reviewing what the new 2015 IRC Building Codes are requiring in new home construction in MN.

and

> In the mid 80’s, in order to lessen our dependence on overseas energy products, new “Energy Codes” were put into effect to reduce the amount of energy used to heat and cool a home. The code required northern homes to have a vapor barrier (poly sheet) installed behind the sheetrock to stop or restrict airflow through the walls. While this meant homeowners no longer needed to sleep with three down blankets during the winter, the full and the long term effects of a tighter home weren’t completely understood when it went into effect. As it turned out, within five-to-ten years after construction, these tightly wrapped homes couldn’t “breathe” and weren’t able to dry out before the next rain. The homes just rotted away, often without any visual indication that anything was amiss.

Lots of people have rotting walls and they don't realize it. It's like a cancer on the American housing stock and there's no bailout. Nobody is fixing this, we just think building new homes solves everything
@feld @pony @RedOct American building codes are generally terrible; note that this problem doesn't exist in German or Nordic Passivhaus construction. Then there's the fenestration - American buildings love to use slide windows, which are harder to insulate than tilt-and-turn, but then one of the people in our program lives in a modern New York condo with tilt-and-turn windows and tells me they're not as well-insulated as German ones, for reasons neither of us knows.
@feld @pony @RedOct The poor insulation then makes city living less desirable because street noise filters into the buildings; every time I visit New York I have to deal with way worse noise than I have at home with the windows closed, and I live next to an elevated train in an extremely touristy area. But *none* of this gets resolved through taxing landlords (who then pass the tax on to the renters) - the US and Canada need to Europeanize their building codes.

@Alon @feld @pony @RedOct Yeah, and let me add that making homes "breathe" through cracks in the walls is a very non-ideal solution for ventilation. Mould and other nasties can grow in such cracks, the air you're getting isn't high quality.

Much better to have proper mechanical ventilation, we have the technology to exchange air without exchanging heat

@DiegoBeghin @Alon @pony @RedOct I installed an ERV in my condo for this, it was amazing. Also dropped my co2 by 300-500ppm
@Alon @RedOct this guy is a slumlord for sure
@RedOct @Alon but it doesn’t make sense even in the best case scenario for everyone to own a home. There are times when renting is a better option. But it does make sense to have vacant housing available for use one way or the other. People do hoard units in expensive cities and keep them off market. People have second homes they only use a little. Cities have tried taxing them, but not enough.
@maccruiskeen @RedOct People don't actually hoard dwellings in meaningful numbers, is the point. In New York, 58,000 units were held off for seasonal, recreational, or otherwise occasional use in 2023, down from 2017 - but there are 3.7 million units citywide, for a 1.6% rate. https://www.nyc.gov/assets/hpd/downloads/pdfs/about/2023-nychvs-selected-initial-findings.pdf
@Alon @RedOct that wouldn’t by itself solve all the problems. But 50,000 apts newly available would certainly have an effect. That’s housing that already exists but misappropriated.
@maccruiskeen @RedOct The number is down in half since 2020; it's not visible in rents. Annual housing approvals citywide (see https://socds.huduser.gov/permits/) are around 20,000-30,000; at Tokyo or Seoul rates, they'd be around 100,000. That's what's needed, rather than populist attempts to eliminate apartment renting as an option.
SOCDS Building Permits Database

@Alon @RedOct I’m not for eliminating renting. I’m for getting more units on the market. Cities can do more than one thing to accomplish that; they’re going to have to.
@RedOct @Alon In the Netherlands, they just made laws setting a maximum rental price on most housing (whether social, corporation or privately owned). The max rent is based on a points system, which are awarded for surface, insulation, baths, heating system etc.
This system has worked for years for subsidized rent, but now is being extended to a far bigger range of rental housing.
It's too fresh to see the effects yet.
@Alon @Daojoan so then you support abolishing parking minimums and free parking, and making it easier to build ADUs and DADUs to increase density?
@Hex @Daojoan Yes, of course. Shoup is based.