@mabermx good question. I am a professional statistician, forecaster & pollster, published bestselling author etc. I could give you an answer that ran into tomorrow. I try to keep this now brief... hold on [grabs coffee]

@mabermx In the modern era (past 60 years) Every single Presidential election cycle with an incumbent, the incumbent popularity fell below 50% in first term. Obama went down to 40%, Bill Clinton 37%, Ronald Reagan 36%. It is NORMAL for incumbent to be less than 50%. BIden was at 37% his lowest. Each of these easily was re-elected (Obama, Bill Clinton, Reagan) from these levels. Polling BEFORE the Conventions has NO correlation with re-election. None. It is RANDOM

@mabermx So (as I write EVERY 4 years) the 'horse race' polls that the media run in the boring summer months of a President's fourth year are MEANINGLESS. They suggested we'd get a President Romney or a President Bob Dole or a President Mondale for heaven's sakes, Mondale lost to Reagan a few months later so badly, Mondale got to 40% and won only 1 state. Those polls are ALL meaningless. There is no correlation.. BUT

@mabermx EVERY cycle in modern era, the polling taken AFTER THE TWO CONVENTIONS shows correctly who wins the election. EVERY SINGLE TIME. and those polls show modestly accurately the MAGNITUDE of the win. The only cases where the polls after both conventions were misleading is, they rarely can capture a BIG WAVE. so if there is a big wave, that is not yet visible after conventions. The polls predicted correct result who wins, but suggested the race was close, when was blowout

@mabermx That is why I say every 4 years, do not look at polling before hte Conventions, after both conventions, THAT is when we get FIRST LOOK at the election race reality. So in about one month, after Kamala Harris has had her convention, we see where THIS race is headed (to a blowout win by Harris, obviously, Trump cannot win, but how big, we get some sign of that in late August)