I've written a longish take on the last couple of days, including about how what looked like (and initially was) Democratic panic over Biden morphed somewhere along the way into a rope-a-dope strategy against the GOP, and whether Harris can win (spoiler: yup):

https://whatever.scalzi.com/2024/07/22/biden-harris-trump-and-2024/

#uspol

Biden, Harris, Trump and 2024

Slow news weekend, am I right? Some thoughts on the current state of things, in no particular order. 1. I was not a fan of the idea of Joe Biden leaving the race, and I still have my suspicions tha…

Whatever
@scalzi Excellent points, as usual. And I think you're right. I think the decision wasn't sudden at all, and timed for maximum impact. No one is talking about Trump's ear anymore, and now Vance has to twitch for a week or so waiting to hear who he has to debate.

@scalzi I think you're also right about how white men hate her and will try to rationalize that hate as something else. I'm worried that we may have a repeat of 2016, when the white-heavy swing states in the Upper Midwest decided things because white-male support for the D candidate dropped several points (a whopping 12, in MI) over 2012.

That said, in 2016, we didn't have AZ and GA, and we don't have the demographic challenges there. And MI seems to be happy with their women leaders, now.

@scalzi Good piece. Umm, your RSS feed seems subtly b0rked somehow, as in “Feedly can’t see anything since the July 16th Lemberg piece”. Will dig in a bit but thought you should know.
Reminder: Feedly is Lying to You, I Am Not Blocking Them

I am once again getting emails from people saying that Whatever arrives on their Feedly RSS reader sporadically if at all and when questioned about it, Feedly says that I am blocking them. Feedly i…

Whatever
@scalzi i do hope your assessment is right. but it’s hard to argue with the pot hole it made appear in front of the GOP wheels.

@scalzi I don't think the idea that Biden was bidin' his time between the debate and the announcement holds any water

It would mean Biden held all of those meetings with governors and senators and did interviews telling everyone he was fine and strong and committed staying in the race - that he did all of that as part of a ruse

The explanation with evidence also happens to be the one that's most straightforward: that he was sincere about staying in and was eventually dissuaded

@pleaseclap @scalzi I agree it is unlikely that he decided to drop out right after the debate. But I do think it's likely that he deliberately waited until after the RNC.
@toddhorowitz @scalzi That's fair: I'd probably call it "plausible" instead of "likely", but that's just haggling

@scalzi Spot on … or exactly my take as well

I still think Biden would have had a better chance of beating Trump, but the tactics (and organization) here might work very well

@scalzi Yes to this. The idea that Biden was forced out by the media (which a lot of idiots seem to believe) is laughable. Obviously he assessed the situation objectively and decided that Harris stood a chance, whereas he didn't. He also understood that waiting till just after the Republican convention would do maximum damage to the Trump campaign. I loved your observation that he can continue to harry them from the rear; that hadn't occurred to me.
@scalzi “But there are a lot of executive orders between now and then that he can manage that could help those who need help, and vex those who need vexing, and to draw comparisons between the parties and their positions. The Supreme Court’s stupid decision certainly could bolster that. Thanks, Supreme Court!” I’m looking forward to see what he does with this!
@Julie @scalzi One thing he could do is to take military spending earmarked for Israel and gloriously send it to Ukraine instead. He doesn't even need the immunity ruling for this: courts have always shown great deference to the President's national-security judgement (meaning that it is presumptively valid, and you better bring solid evidence that it's nonsensical). Trump did precisely this, transferring DoD money to his wall in the name of natsec, and got away with it.

@scalzi

"You can rationalize it however you like; I understand it’s important for one’s self-image to do that. I’m not inclined to buy into the rationalizations any more."

Every bit of this, many times. Many, many times.

@scalzi If someday we find out that you are right I wonder if we'll also find out that Biden's COVID diagnosis in the middle of the Republican convention was part of a misdirection strategy. I'm not saying I think it was but it would an interesting twist.
@theotherbrook @scalzi That seems highly unlikely. Deception is not really Biden's style.
@toddhorowitz @scalzi I agree. And as I said, I'm not seriously putting the idea forward. But I also think that while the decision not to continue the campaign was Biden's, the decision on how best to announce it was very unlikely to have been his alone.

@scalzi

“Cross fetish”? Really? Does it mean, it is perfectly OK to be nasty to anybody who is not you? Thank you, I know it is a kind of Godwin’s Law, but the last time I heard such junk was when I was growing up in the Communist Czechoslovakia. Good job on falling into a stereotype!

@mcepl @scalzi

he's referring to the fake Christians, not real ones. The people who say they are Christian but in no way act like it.

@darwinwoodka @scalzi

Of course, that’s what they always say. “I call Hymies only bad Jews, not all of them.”

@scalzi

pretty sure it was "we're not having a 68 so you all better support Harris"

@scalzi Great read - couldn't agree more. I hope Biden spends the last six months pushing things through.
@scalzi If this works, it will have worked for the right reasons: Democrats realizing there's a whole generation out there disenfranchised and wanting to be part of this government, and that maybe to win they have to loosen their grip on power a little and trust Americans to not homogeneously suck.

@scalzi @lisamelton Fully agree, and I used the “rope-a-dope” analogy myself yesterday. I think that means we’re both “of a certain age”.

An interesting implication of this is that someone in the Dem party is Machiavellian AF. My guess is Nancy “the shiv” Pelosi. I take comfort in that idea, given what we’re up against.

@dogzilla @scalzi @lisamelton whatever else I might have to say about Pelosi: she does Baltimore proud with her absolute ruthlessness.
@scalzi Good stuff. I am on the Democratic Committee of a fairly large city. We need volunteers nationwide. That part of the campaign has been somewhat depressed the last month. LET’S GO!

@scalzi If Harris does win, it will be the first time a democrat is elected to follow a democrat since the civil war.

Truman followed Roosevelt, and Johnson followed Kennedy, but in both those cases it was because the incumbent died in office.

That could lead to 12 years of the democrats being in charge, which is enough time for long-term projects to actually get done. And, hopefully, some Supreme Court seats to be flipped.

@merc @scalzi Or more seats to be added. Or DOJ corruption investigations of Supreme Court Justices.
@scalzi excellent take! Thanks!
@scalzi This was a series of crashes that ended up more or less on top. For now.
But if the Republicans believe they've been out-strategised that's GOOD.
@scalzi Wouldn't surprise me if we find out in memoirs published years from now that a fake-out last minute switch to the VP was the plan right from the start, four years ago.
@scalzi sometimes it's like we're mind melded