Tomi T Ahonen

So once again for those sitting in the back row

EVERY cycle for incumbent President, his approval ratings are BELOW 50% (check the numbers, EVERY one)

The NORMAL for an incumbent is 37% approval. Obama was at 40%. Clinton at 37%. Reagan was at 35%. They all were re-elected - Reagan by landslide

Jul 18, 2024 at 5:31pmWeb
Show threadTomi T AhonenJul 18, 2024

When one side of 2 parties is CAMPAIGNING and the incumbent is NOT, he is GOVERNING

the polling shows the incumbent supposedly 'losing' to the challenger. Those polls suggested President Romney. President Bob Dole and President Mondale

Before conventions, polling is FAIRY TALES

AFTER Aug: reality

Show threadTomi T AhonenJul 18, 2024

The FIRST polls that have a 'predictive' correlation with actual incumbent President re-election (or loss) are those after both Conventions, not one poll before has any correlation

So you should ignore all polls until late August. After our convention. THEN we see (that Biden is FAR ahead of Trump)

Show threadDeannaJul 18, 2024
@tomiahonen Tomi with the numbers! Thank you!
Show threadGeoff BernerJul 18, 2024
@tomiahonen you clearly were watching a different debate than I saw. I saw a man who was losing it, mentally and electorally. Nixon lost the 1960 election because he looked a bit sweaty. Whatever weird theories you may have, it's cruel and wrong to make a frail man whose memory is clearly failing, do the hardest job in the world. It's gonna kill him.
Show threadTomi T AhonenJul 18, 2024
@Geoffberner Geoff? SRSLY? Did you watch the debate or only select highlights by a media desperate to feed a story Biden failed? If you watched the debate, you heard Biden catch his feet on the economy question, towards end, calling Trump Hoover. Then Biden reminded audience Trump tax cuts cost Trillions. Next they moved to Roe - the biggest driver this cycle, when Biden said Trump would sign a bill outlawing abortion - split camera - showed Trump nodding. Biden won the Roe argument right there
Show threadGeoff BernerJul 18, 2024
@tomiahonen you've gone Trumpy for Biden if you think he did anything but make himself look senile at that debate.
Show threadGeoff BernerJul 18, 2024
@tomiahonen it was the single worst performance in a presidential or vice pres debate since the invention of television. You don't bounce back from that.
Show threadTomi T AhonenJul 18, 2024
@Geoffberner On Palestine, Trump proclaimed Israel has to 'finish the job' (this won Biden the Palestine issue, his only lagging issue with his base). On Jan 6, Trump tried to blame Pelosi! Then Biden got to his full speed - only person convicted of a crime on this stage is the man I am looking at. Biden asked Trump to denounce the attackers of Jan 6, for a pregnant minute and Trump would not. Then Biden hit his stride, you have the morals of an alley cat. had sex wtih porn star
Show threadGeoff BernerJul 18, 2024
@tomiahonen you might have this odd perception of the debate, but if you think you can convince Biden's dwindling supporters of it, you really are deluded.
Show threadGeoff BernerJul 18, 2024
@tomiahonen right now Biden is telling everyone they should work through Covid, and he just finished lecturing Palestinians about how much he did for them. This is a catastrophic candidate.
Show threadTomi T AhonenJul 18, 2024

@Geoffberner And towards the end of the debate Biden was hitting well, with Trump has praised Hitler, and killer - 40 people of Trump's own cabinet refuse to endorse him. Then we get to the biggest election issue for youth vote - massively Democratic voter block often unpredictable - Trump proclaimed the environment is too expensive to save. You watched this debate? You think Biden LOST IT ?

All the data say otherwise. BIDEN PICKED UP VOTERS (about 2% by ave of polling) which is ABOVE average

Show threadTomi T AhonenJul 18, 2024
@Geoffberner So if you actually watched the debate you knew all that. BIden had a bad start, but he got better and he won the debate. He was NOT in his top form, in the next debate he will do even better. But to say Biden lost a debate 'losing it mentally and electorally' you either are lying or you did not watch the debate to the end. You may have seen clips of it, and then you again are lying.
Show threadGeoff BernerJul 18, 2024
@tomiahonen you're lost in the weeds. Whatever you make the "data" say for you, the man is not up for the job, and it's wrong to work him to death like this.
Show threadGeoff BernerJul 18, 2024
@tomiahonen you know, not everyone who disagrees with you is a liar. Do a little self-regulation there.