Mastodawn

Just attending a 3-day workshop on the danger of abrupt ocean circulation changes.
Discussions are quite worrying. E.g. in 35 to 45 % of high quality models, convection in the open North Atlantic collapses in the 2030s due to #globalheating. -> Major climate disruption. Not good.

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kampfschwaetzer Jun 4, 2024

@rahmstorf May I guess how #Merz and #markus_soeder will comment this?
“Germany is too small to make a difference. So we have to stick to the path other countries are taking so that we can safe out living standard And by the way: Scientists have always been wrong in the past.”
Ok. That's just my guess. But the last part of the statement is correct in a strange way: reality has almost always shown more dramatic consequences than assumed. the first part not: most countries do more than we do.

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ifrauding Jun 4, 2024

@rahmstorf "Not good" is a very positive interpretation.

This is "welcome to scorching heat and flooded coast/river towns - maybe tomorrow" bad.

(I hope, my german summary of your post is not too far off...
https://nerdculture.de/@Ifrauding/112558565957196950)

ifrauding (@[email protected])

"In einem Drittel bis fast der Hälfte aller hochqualitativen Klimamodellrechnungen bricht der #Golfstrom zusammen - IN DEN 2030ER JAHREN." https://fediscience.org/@rahmstorf/112558462764884714 #Klimakrise

NerdCulture

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Georg Kury Jun 4, 2024

@rahmstorf Das heißt, ein Kollaps der Atlantikzirkulation könnte schon bei weniger als 2°C mit einer relativ großen Wahrscheinlichkeit eintreten. Gibt es eine Einschätzung, wie hoch diese Wahrscheinlichkeit ist? Ist die gleich wie die Anzahl der Modelle, die das prognostizieren?

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Kill cars for climate!Jun 4, 2024

@rahmstorf Eine Bilfbeschreibung waere ganz toll.

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Sepia Fan Jun 4, 2024

Link to the depicted study "On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models", 07/2021, @DidierSwingedouw
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352953143_On_the_risk_of_abrupt_changes_in_the_North_Atlantic_subpolar_gyre_in_CMIP6_models
Author PDF: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Didier-Swingedouw/publication/352953143_On_the_risk_of_abrupt_changes_in_the_North_Atlantic_subpolar_gyre_in_CMIP6_models/links/61409296dabce51cf45081f7/On-the-risk-of-abrupt-changes-in-the-North-Atlantic-subpolar-gyre-in-CMIP6-models.pdf

"The models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of *up to* 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in CMIP5 models."

@rahmstorf Doesn't this mean the % based on CMIP5 is outdated?

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