Prof. Stefan RahmstorfJun 4, 2024
Just attending a 3-day workshop on the danger of abrupt ocean circulation changes.
Discussions are quite worrying. E.g. in 35 to 45 % of high quality models, convection in the open North Atlantic collapses in the 2030s due to #globalheating. -> Major climate disruption. Not good.
Show threadSepia Fan

Link to the depicted study "On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models", 07/2021, @DidierSwingedouw
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352953143_On_the_risk_of_abrupt_changes_in_the_North_Atlantic_subpolar_gyre_in_CMIP6_models
Author PDF: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Didier-Swingedouw/publication/352953143_On_the_risk_of_abrupt_changes_in_the_North_Atlantic_subpolar_gyre_in_CMIP6_models/links/61409296dabce51cf45081f7/On-the-risk-of-abrupt-changes-in-the-North-Atlantic-subpolar-gyre-in-CMIP6-models.pdf

"The models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of *up to* 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in CMIP5 models."

@rahmstorf Doesn't this mean the % based on CMIP5 is outdated?

Jun 4, 2024 at 4:41pmWeb