Across NY State, the US and the Northern Hemisphere, this winter's #COVID wave is looking better than last year's, but still pretty bad.
The statewide NY hospitalization rate for COVID was 13.49 in the week ending December 27. CDC RESP-NET shows a decline in recent weeks, but that's preliminary data; for the week ending December 9, they show
combined hospitalizations at 11.4 per lakh, over half what it was in 2022. The WHO is reporting 4,000 dead from #COVID19 in December. #CovidIsNotOver
NYC's winter #COVID wave continues: over 10 people hospitalized per lakh residents, which is half the peak from last year. Five people dying every day. And that's just #COVID19, not RSV or the flu!
I'm pretty much recovered from the symptoms of my COVID infection that started in late December. I #WearAMask in elevators, trains, doctors' offices, pharmacies and supermarkets, and eat outdoors whenever I can. No more in-person karaoke until this wave is over!
The #COVID hospitalization rates in New York State and the United States are high, more than half what they were last year.
The World Health Organization has changed its dashboard around and now shows lots of #COVID19 deaths in Europe, but none in the Americas! Why is the US not sending our death data to the WHO?
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary
https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html
https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/deaths
Remember when we were all sad about the first #covid19 death? In NYC this week, six people are dying every day, just from #COVID never mind flu and RSV!
No end in sight for this winter wave, but I hope it ends soon because there's a cool live karaoke event in Brooklyn on February 16, and I don't want to have to skip it!
And tonight we're keeping the windows open in the very spacious room for the trans support group, and eating dinner outdoors!
Here in NYC, this winter's #covid wave may have peaked at 153 people hospitalized per day, only 68% of last year's peak. But 153 people is a lot, and 8 people a day are dying. That's not even counting flu or RSV!
These days I #WearAMask in elevators, trains and buses and #MaskUp in doctors' offices, pharmacies and supermarkets. And until this wave is over I'm also skipping all in-person karaoke and concerts, and avoiding indoor restaurants!
Did #COVID infections in Queens peak in late December, as wastewater suggests? Did statewide #COVID19 hospitalizations peak in early January?
Maybe, but there's way too much suffering and death. Not as much as last winter's wave, but the CDC reports around 1700 deaths nationwide per week since the beginning of December.
We were too slow to increase precautions this winter. I didn't travel, but I ate in restaurants and went to a party, after wastewater counts started to rise!
Looks like #COVID hospitalizations peaked a couple of weeks ago in New York, and are now on the decline!
I'm going to wait until they've been below 6 hospitalizations per lakh for a couple of weeks before I plan any karaoke or long bus trips. But I'm glad this #COVID19 wave has crested, higher than the fall wave, but apparently at a lower level than last year's!
And of course, I'm still going to #WearAMask in trains, elevators, doctors' offices, pharmacies and grocery stores.
#CovidIsNotOver
Looks like wastewater #COVID in Western Queens peaked the week of December 26, statewide #COVID19 hospitalizations in New York peaked the week of January 2, and flu and RSV also peaked nationwide around the same time. Worldwide COVID deaths reported to the WHO peaked in mid-December.
When I heard reporters breathlessly discuss large numbers of airplane travelers, people visiting families for the December holidays, and big parties, I thought COVID. Did you?
Happy to report that it looks like the winter #COVID wave is finally easing in New York City! Hospitalizations were down below 9 per lakh as of January 21. Deaths from #COVID19, which are a trailing indicator, were higher on January 23, but hopefully they will start falling soon.
I'll talk about case counts and wastewater soon.
#CovidIsNotOver and #COVIDisAirborne, and this wave is not completely over, so I'll continue to #WearAMask in trains, elevators, doctors' offices and pharmacies!
First, some more #COVID hospitalization and death stats. Statewide, New York's #COVID19 hospitalizations have been decreasing throughout January, but were still above 10 per lakh yesterday (January 31).
Nationwide, COVID did not seem to have peaked by early January. RSV was trending down and flu dropping pretty sharply, but combined hospitalizations were higher than most of last winter's wave.
Worldwide, deaths seem to be trending down from a peak in December. We reported the most deaths.
So now to New York City's #COVID case counts and wastewater. They're no use for telling us when the winter wave has ended, but they can give us a warning about whether there's a new wave coming.
No sign of a new wave yet. #CovidIsNotOver, but if the hospitalization numbers continue to drop, it may be safe for some karaoke and indoor dining!
The #COVID picture for New York City this week is very mixed. Hospitalizations are continuing to trending down, as are deaths and even cases, suggesting that the winter #COVID19 wave is ending.
But #CovidIsNotOver and we will have another wave eventually. How soon? Will it be safe to go to a live karaoke event next week?
Well, the wastewater data seems to be trending back up again. Does that mean the next wave is already starting? 😬
Well, this is disappointing I've been refreshing NYC's #COVID data page all afternoon, and it hasn't been updated!
So what data do we have? The state data for NYC is 7.94, but it's been consistently higher than the city's own figures. It has also been consistently going down since January 8.
Wastewater #COVID19 levels have fluctuated, but they're well below the New Year's peak, so no sign of a new wave.
Nationwide levels are decreasing, but still above this time last year.
The most recent #flu and #rsv report that NYC has released goes up to February 3. It shows a large, steady drop in RSV cases since the peak in December, and a slower decline in flu cases since the peak in early January.
These numbers are a bit less reliable, since they go down if less doctors order tests, but they are following the seasonal pattern, and suggest that, as with #covid these diseases pose a much lower risk now than in early January.
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/providers/health-topics/flu-alerts.page
The NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has released this week's #COVID numbers, a day late. Looks like all the indicators - cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and the wastewater numbers I posted above - are trending down.
#CovidIsNotOver but this suggests the winter #COVID19 wave is ending! Combine with the flu and RSV trends, and it looks like we have a little breathing room until the next wave!
I'm still not clear why the State reports 7.94 for the city, but the City reports 4.61!
New York City is now out of the winter #COVID wave. Hospitalizations have been below 6 per lakh for over three weeks, deaths are down to 4 a day, and the wastewater and cases are showing no signs of a new wave!
I celebrated by singing karaoke with a live band on Friday night. I still like eating outdoors in general, but in cold weather it's nice to feel relatively safe eating indoors!
#CovidIsNotOver so I still #WearAMask in elevators, trains, doctors' offices, pharmacies and grocery stores!
The winter (Northern Hemisphere) #COVID wave seems to be wrapping up across New York State, the United States and worldwide.
#COVID19 hospitalizations and deaths are down, and so are #RSV and #flu hospitalizations, but COVID and flu hospitalizations are still higher than they were last year, so total hospitalizations are also still higher.
Looks like 90% of the deaths reported to the WHO from this COVID wave were from the US and Europe.
#WearAMask in crowded places!
This week's NYC #COVID numbers confirm that the winter wave is mostly over. Hospitalization totals indicate that we are below 6 per lakh; according to the city we've been below 6 for four weeks now!
Deaths due to #COVID19 are also declining. Four per day is still too many, but hopefully future data will show that we are already below that.
I'll take advantage of this to sing and eat indoors, but #CovidIsNotOver and I will still #WearAMask in elevators, trains, doctors' offices and pharmacies!
In NYC, #flu and #RSV positive tests also continue to decline from the winter wave, although #influenza stil remained high as of February 17, around 8,000, which is lower than the peaks from this year and last year, but only barely lower than the 2020 peak.
Statewide for #COVID19, and nationwide for #COVID, flu and RSV, hospitalizations continue to decline.
We will probably get a summer wave, as we have every year since 2020, but I'm hoping it will start late, run short, and not hurt too many!
#COVIDIsNotOver and we will have another wave, but what's also encouraging for NYC is that the leading indicators don't show any signs that the next #COVID wave has begun. Wastewater and case counts are still trending down, although I'm a bit concerned that the wastewater counts aren't showing a very strong trend as of February 13.
Worldwide #COVID-19 deaths are also trending down.
The #COVID hospitalization stats for New York City are out, a day late. The steady downward trend continues. The preliminary rate for this week is 2.3 people hospitalized per lakh!
As I say every week, #CovidIsNotOver and #COVIDisAirborne so even though I'm eating in restaurants and singing karaoke, I still #WearAMask in crowded spaces like elevators and trains, and places where high-risk people might go, like doctors' offices, pharmacies and grocery stores!
Across New York State and the United States, #COVID hospitalizations continue to decline.
#Flu and #RSV rates are also declining, both cases in NYC and hospitalizations across the United States, but the combined nationwide hospitalization rate from all three was still above 8 per lakh as of February 17. I know several parents with young children who are still catching these diseases.
Let's hope all three will go really low and stay low for a while this spring!
In NYC, #COVID hospitalizations have now been below 6 per lakh since the beginning of February, and are still declining. And with comfortable weather on the horizon, it looks like we'll get a nice long spring trough!
I'm eating indoors when the weather is bad, and singing karaoke, but #COVIDIsNotOver and #COVIDisAirborne so I'm continuing to #WearAMask in crowded spaces (elevators, trains, buses) and I #MaskUp where vulnerable people are (doctors' offices, pharmacies, supermarkets)!
There is still no sign of a new #COVID wave in NYC. Case and wastewater counts continue to decline. Across the United States, hospitalizations for #COVID19, the flu and RSV reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also continue decline, as do worldwide deaths reported to the World Health Organization.
Let's be prepared for the next wave, but for now, rest and continue to take basic precautions!
The NYC #COVID numbers are out again, a day late, and looking good. Continued slow decline of citywide and statewide hospitalizations. I still can't believe this is what passes for good news, but citywide #COVID19 deaths are now down to 2 per day on average.
I'm hosting karaoke tonight, but #COVIDisAirborne and #CovidIsNotOver so I still #WearAMask in crowded spaces like trains, and places where vulnerable people are likely to be, like doctors' offices and pharmacies!
Cases of #COVID, #flu and #RSV in NYC are all decreasing, although 6,000 flu cases reported the week of March 9 is still pretty high. Still, there is no sign of the next wave!
NYC has not reported wastewater #COVID19 detection levels since February 27.
NYC #COVID numbers are still showing signs of a nice long trough. Hospitalizations are now down below 2 per lakh per day, and deaths average 1 per day.
The Department of Environmental Protection still has not released wastewater data since February 27, but there's no sign of an increase in cases!
The #COVID hospitalization rate in NYC has now been below 6 per lakh for over two months! We've gone three days between deaths reported.
The DEP still hasn't posted wastewater data samples taken after February 27, but case rates are continuing to drop.
#CovidIsNotOver and 20 people hospitalized per day is still too much. At this rate it will keep circulating and we will have another wave, probably when people go inside to escape heat or smoke. That's why I #WearAMask in crowded places!
The good #COVID news for New York City and State continues! We've been below 6 hospitalizations per lakh residents for over two months, so I'm now counting individual hospitalizations; we were down to 17 citywide last week, and went two days without a death again!
Of course #CovidIsNotOver and 17 hospitalizations per day and four deaths per week is too many. That's why I still #WearAMask in trains, elevators and doctors' offices!
I'll talk about #COVID19 trends and forecasts in future posts!
The graph of #COVID hospitalizations per day in New York City shows waves in the following seasons (with peak avg daily count):
Spring 2020: 1594
Winter 2020 - Spring 2021: 399
Summer-Fall 2021: 122
Winter 2021-2022: 1050
Spring 2022 - Winter 2023 (one long wave): 216
Fall 2023: 83
Winter 2023-2024: 155
It looks like in general these #COVID19 waves are getting shorter and milder. If 2024 is like 2023, we won't see another wave until mid-July at the earliest. Here's hoping!
The NYC #COVID #wastewater data from March 2024 is still not visible on the NY State wastewater tracker, but it was posted to the City's open data portal last week. The custom chart I made shows the data since fall 2022, summed citywide by sample date.
The data shows that #COVID19 concentrations have continued to drop steadily since the New Year's peak. #CovidIsNotOver but there's no sign of a new peak yet. Hopefully we won't get one for quite some time!
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/en/Health/NYC-Wastewater-COVID/cqex-qbk7
Since I was summing by day across all facilities in NYC, I was worried that the #COVID #wastewater samples taken from different facilities on different days might lower the values, so I isolated the facility where my waste goes, Bowery Bay (initials BB).
The pattern is the same as the citywide pattern, so they seem to be taking samples from all the facilities on the same day!
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/NYC-Wastewater-COVID-Bowery-Bay-Northwest-Queens-/h8gx-2na6
Results of sampling to determine the SARS-CoV-2 N gene levels in NYC DEP Wastewater Resource Recovery Facility (WRRF) influent, disaggregated by the WRRF where the sample was collected, date sample was collected, and date sample was tested. RT-qPCR was changed to digital PCR in April of 2023, resulting values are about 10-20 times higher than those of RT-qPCR. Please refer to this <a href="https://data.cityofnewyork.us/api/views/f7dc-2q9f/files/b96b4f2f-45d0-4690-a68e-2343f8e5967a?download=true&filename=OpenDataDtldDscrp-060823.docx" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">supporting documentation</a> for more technical information Data may be used to track trends in SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in NYC WRRF influent. Dataset does not include COVID-19 case rates.
Last week I didn't post the regular NYC #COVID case, hospitalization and death counts, but they were all trending in good directions.
That trend continues with this week's data, which indicates that we're now firmly in a trough like March-June 2023, early March 2022, June 2021 or September 2020. There has only been one #COVID19 death reported in the city between April 12 and April 22!
#CovidIsNotOver and I still #WearAMask in trains and doctors' offices, but no sign of an uptick in cases!
Last week my wife and I left the US for the first time since before 2020. Our first plane flight since before #COVID !
Outbound flight was a JetBlue Airbus 320. CO2 levels were above 1800 during takeoff and landing, and never went below 1000. We only took our masks off to eat.
Our return flight was a United Boeing 737 NG. #MaskUp during takeoff and landing when CO2 levels were above 1500, but they dropped below 700 in flight.
#WearAMask #MaskUp #COVIDisAirborne #CovidIsNotOver #COVID19
This week's #COVID numbers for NYC show no sign of a new wave. No wastewater data, but case counts continue to decline. Only 5 deaths in the ten days from April 14-23!
Unfortunately, the rate of decline seems to have tapered off, with #covid19 cases holding roughly steady at around 200 per day citywide, hospitalizations around 20 and deaths around 1.
That's still way too many. #CovidIsNotOver until we have a week with no case reports! I still #WearAMask on trains and in doctors' offices!
It turns out the #NYC DEP has been releasing more up-to-date #COVID #wastewater data, currently through April 28!
I wasn't seeing it in my custom chart because I was filtering the data by "Last 6 quarters" and it was waiting until this quarter finished (June 30)! I've now set the filter to "Last 365 Days."
The data is the best I've seen for NYC since I started looking at #COVID19 wastewater data!
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-wastewater-surveillance
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/NYC-Wastewater-COVID/cqex-qbk7
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/NYC-Wastewater-COVID-Bowery-Bay-Northwest-Queens-/h8gx-2na6
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/SARS-CoV-2-concentrations-measured-in-NYC-Wastewat/f7dc-2q9f/about_data
Case and hospitalization counts for #COVID in New York City have actually ticked up slightly. Here's hoping it's just normal fluctuations and they will continue to decline!
Wastewater #COVID19 levels are available for May 5 - for some reason on the New York State portal and not on the City portal, but they show no sign of increase to that day.
This means #CovidIsNotOver so we still #WearAMask where there are vulnerable people. A manager of a chain pharmacy store thanked us the other day!
Welp, looks like last week's rise in #COVID cases in NYC is now matched by a rise in wastewater counts! Still lower than February, but keep your eyes out for a late Spring #COVID19 wave!
I'm still going to tomorrow's karaoke meetup, but if these keep going up I'm going to move June's karaoke online and stop eating indoors.
And I'm continuing to #WearAMask in elevators, trains, buses, doctors' offices, pharmacies and grocery stores!
@brainwane You prompted me to pin this post!
There's a #COVID #wastewater dataset on the New York City Open Data portal, and I created two custom visualizations: one showing all wastewater treatment plants, one with only the one fed by my toilet, Bowery Bay.
It's actually kind of frustrating: sometimes #COVID19 data appears in the New York State portal first, and sometimes in the City portal!
Attached: 4 images It turns out the #NYC DEP has been releasing more up-to-date #COVID #wastewater data, currently through April 28! I wasn't seeing it in my custom chart because I was filtering the data by "Last 6 quarters" and it was waiting until this quarter finished (June 30)! I've now set the filter to "Last 365 Days." The data is the best I've seen for NYC since I started looking at #COVID19 wastewater data! https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-wastewater-surveillance https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/NYC-Wastewater-COVID/cqex-qbk7 https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/NYC-Wastewater-COVID-Bowery-Bay-Northwest-Queens-/h8gx-2na6 https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/SARS-CoV-2-concentrations-measured-in-NYC-Wastewat/f7dc-2q9f/about_data
Angus Andrea Grieve-Smith
Sumana Harihareswara