Daring FireballOn the Ever-Increasing Accuracy of Weather Forecasts
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2024/03/19/weather-forecasts
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2024/03/19/weather-forecasts
Ross Kimes@daringfireball @gruber as someone with a degree in meteorology and tons of friends that are practicing meteorologist, I can confirm that the “only have to be right half the time” joke is still very much in play. But you are right, forecasts have improved significantly.
Olivier Lartillot@daringfireball Meanwhile, in France, the national weather forecast is becoming extremely inaccurate because of computational automations and decrease of human expert oversight... https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/pourquoi-meteo-france-senfonce-dans-le-brouillard-20240318_TM53CDBOQFCUXNAST2LPWPQRYI/
Christopher@daringfireball To me it feels like we reached peak accuracy a few years ago. I don’t know about where your but at least with precipitation here in Boston has been very inaccurate. My guess is with the climate changing all the weather models are starting to break.
dave martin@christopherbowers @daringfireball THIS!
I’m behind on my DF reading but I had to respond to this because accuracy is plummeting in New England right now.
Case in point: yesterday’s rain was scheduled to make way to clouds and maybe wind this afternoon as recently as this morning. Now? Who tf knows when the wintry mix will end?
I’m worried it never will.
A year after Dark Sky and for about two years, accuracy was phenomenal. Then it started to falter. Then Apple bought it.
Vilhelm Rothe@daringfireball @gruber I'm guessing it varies wildly with the kind of climate and geographic location, because weather forecasting in Denmark is still very much hit & miss, and we don't exactly skimp on funding the national weather forecaster.
Peter van Broekhoven@daringfireball I don’t doubt that they’re more accurate than when we were kids. But I can open 5 different weather apps and get 5 different forecasts. They’re still not great.
Marc Robinson 
@daringfireball I will never get used to people saying "broadcasted" or "forecasted" or any kind of "~casted." Never.
FreediverX@daringfireball
Maybe this depends on the region, but here in South Florida, my experience is the opposite, at least with Apple Weather. Not only are the forecasts often hilariously wrong, but sometimes even the current weather conditions are completely off.
Just a day or two ago I left the house with my Watch telling me it was sunny with 0% chance of rain all day, and 10 minutes later the skies were half overcast and I was getting drizzling rain on me.
I've seen more accurate horoscopes.
@freediverx in defense of meteorology: it’s South Florida. There is almost never a 0% chance of local precipitation bc the humidity is always near 5000% human thresholds
@Mountaineerdave
That is accurate, except for winter when temperatures drop to a bone-chilling 65ºF with 50% humidity.
BTW right now it's only 53% humidity and 78ºF… but that's according to Apple's weather app so not sure how accurate.
Adam C. Engst@daringfireball 7-day forecasts are still fantasies. Those of us who plan outdoor athletic events watch the forecasts carefully. There's no doubt that they're better, but more than a few days is just hand-waving at generalities.
Ron Parsons7-day forecasts in San Diego? Pretty good for planning outdoor activities. 7-day forecasts in Fort Collins? Advisory only depending on the pending weather. Snow totals for spring storms are wide ranges even 3 days out as it all depends on where the low sets up.
Better forecasts than 20 years ago? Sure, but I wonder how the models will deal with changing conditions going forward.
@ronpar @daringfireball Hah! Yeah, from what I hear from friends in San Diego, there's very little weather variation, though it's gotten hotter in the past 20 years. Here in Ithaca, Cornell's motto has been updated to "I would found an institution where any student can find instruction in any study, in any weather."
And yes, the models are going to have to adapt to ever-more extreme and variable weather.
Penguin@adamengst @daringfireball Had 3 outdoor weddings since 2016, all were perfect. Last was the worst as it started raining once we were safely inside for the reception. All outdoor weddings are nerve-racking experiences with weather and I’m glad we’re done 🙂
@adamengst @daringfireball Sadly yes. This week perfect on forecasts but got mixed rain & snow anyway. Have to see many weather forecasts to get a general idea of what might happen 🙁