Daring FireballOn the Ever-Increasing Accuracy of Weather Forecasts
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2024/03/19/weather-forecasts
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2024/03/19/weather-forecasts
Adam C. Engst@daringfireball 7-day forecasts are still fantasies. Those of us who plan outdoor athletic events watch the forecasts carefully. There's no doubt that they're better, but more than a few days is just hand-waving at generalities.
Ron Parsons7-day forecasts in San Diego? Pretty good for planning outdoor activities. 7-day forecasts in Fort Collins? Advisory only depending on the pending weather. Snow totals for spring storms are wide ranges even 3 days out as it all depends on where the low sets up.
Better forecasts than 20 years ago? Sure, but I wonder how the models will deal with changing conditions going forward.
@ronpar @daringfireball Hah! Yeah, from what I hear from friends in San Diego, there's very little weather variation, though it's gotten hotter in the past 20 years. Here in Ithaca, Cornell's motto has been updated to "I would found an institution where any student can find instruction in any study, in any weather."
And yes, the models are going to have to adapt to ever-more extreme and variable weather.