William Gillis 🏴Feb 19, 2024

The bookies currently put Trump's odds of winning the election at 55%.

If Trump wins, it seems clear there's better than even odds of him successfully transforming the US into a fully autocratic state. There's some chance that the "resistance" put up by liberals and the extended state apparatus will have some measure of success, but the greater moderating factor on Trump's success would be as always his ignorance and extremely narrow self-interest.

That combines to at least 1/4th odds overall.

Show threadWilliam Gillis 🏴
So there's *at least* a 25% chance that those of us in the US will end up under a system far less constrained by liberal pretenses. This is not, as some inane bloviators like to suggest, a meaningless change. There's a marked difference between how, for example, Eric King was beaten in prison, and how anarchists in Belarus have been rounded up in mass and tortured in prisons. The composition and inclination of a state can vary quite a bit. Admitting that doesn't deny liberalism's monstrosity.
Feb 19, 2024 at 2:37amWeb
Show threadWilliam Gillis 🏴Feb 19, 2024

What's so annoying in these discussions is how a certain number of people are so desperate for rhetorical utility in the short-term near-discursive context. They prioritize avoiding any words that might be seen as letting liberalism off the hook, that they have to posture about how the US is already maximally fascist.

Gotta score points dunking on the libs on twitter today, who cares about strategic preparation for futures to come.

Show threadThommyFeb 19, 2024
@rechelon some of these are the same people who like to compare Israel (fascist, not Nazi) to Nazi Germany. The refusal to admit there are different degrees of evil is not helpful. Things can always be worse. I think pollsters still haven't fixed issues with their methodology post 2016 that makes them tend to overestimate the GOP. But even a 15% chance of us going the direction of Hungary or Russia is something one actually has to prepare for.
Show threadJayFeb 19, 2024
@rechelon Right now we need to be combative and explicit in reclaiming precision of language where required.
Show threadCyFeb 19, 2024
@rechelon For instance, I don't know any anarchists in the USA. Fascism boldly destroys massive demonstrations of anarchist protest, but liberalism is a quieter poison, trapping us in situations where we are forced to be individuals and stripped of community. In a way, fascism is what liberalism becomes when we start getting effective at resisting it. Their brutal violence always comes forward, when they can no longer control us with smart words.