Reed MidekeHUR claims a cross border raid into Belgorod, which IMO is far more sensible than outsourcing to the neonazis in the Russian Volunteer Corps and making implausible denials https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-claims-cross-border-raid-on-russian-positions-in-belgorod-oblast/
Jeffrey Lewis makes a strong case missile debris from a Jan 2 strike on Kharkiv was North Korean, though unclear whether KN-23 or KN-24 (Hwasong-11A or 11B)
https://nitter.net/ArmsControlWonk/status/1743401762151657822#m
Two interesting things about this recent #Ukraine strike on #Crimea:
1) Claimed "ammunition warehouses" but no major secondary damage
2) Hits seem extremely precise, 2 munitions per warehouse (except one, miss/dud?). Target is ~130km from front line. Ukraine wouldn't burn 7+ Storm shadows on this, and holes seem small for that. Not consistent with ATACMS either
Has #GLSDB finally arrived?
https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-satellite-images-confirm-strike/
Could maybe be drones or some other domestic innovation, but I don't think we've seen a grid like that previously from much other than GMLRS, which is out of range
Missed this earlier: UK quietly developed and shipped a ground launch ASRAAM system to Ukraine
(someone should be working on the USV / UAV version)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-uk-bolsters-ukraines-air-defence-after-putins-latest-air-strikes
(someone should be working on the USV / UAV version)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-uk-bolsters-ukraines-air-defence-after-putins-latest-air-strikes
Report on Russian POWs in Ukraine is a quite a contrast from what people who make it out of the Russian system describe
https://spektr.press/neispravimye-reportazh-iz-lagerya/
https://spektr.press/neispravimye-reportazh-iz-lagerya/
Неисправимые. Репортаж из лагеря для военнопленных, где российские призывники, контрактники и зэки ожидают своей участи
3 января, после пятимесячного перерыва, Россия и Украина вновь обменялись пленными. Домой уехало больше, чем обычно — 230 и 248 человек. На этот раз Украина не смогла вернуть никого из защитников Мариуполя из числа бойцов полка «Азов», но впервые вернула шестерых, задержанных на оккупированных территориях, «гражданских» украинцев. Россия, по словам омбудсмена РФ Татьяны Москальковой, смогла получить 75 человек «без обмена» — в счет старых долгов за освобождение командиров «Азова».
Signs your 3-day special military operation is going according to plan: "Russian Pension Fund had sent a letter to employees of its regional offices instructing them to delete the data on welfare payments to participants of the "special military operation"… This information could reveal the scale of Russian losses and the number of military personnel who have received disability status" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-9-11-2024
#Ukraine essentially bragging they neutralized a bunch of missiles with EW, which seems like something you wouldn't brag about if you'd actually done it 🤔 https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/13/7437099/
Another good long form interview from Ukrainska Pravda, this time with Commander of the Ukrainian Navy Vice Admiral Oleksii Neizhpapa https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/01/11/7436682/
Rumors today a Russian A-50 AWACS and an IL-22M command & control plane was shot down by #Ukraine, or possibly friendly fire. Seems pretty clear something significant happened, but not exactly what
Russian losses reported on FighterBomber almost always check out, though notably they didn't go into the specifics
Stop, AASM HAMMER time. (It's basically a sparkling JDAM but the additional guidance options and rocket assist should be welcome)
Not that there was much doubt, but Conflict Armament Research reports compelling evidence a #DPRK missile (likely KN-23 or KN-24) was used in #Ukraine
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/3a4e9d713f59426d9d1ea3881abecbf3
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/3a4e9d713f59426d9d1ea3881abecbf3
"Another journalist, recalling Fico's earlier suggestion that Ukraine would have to give up some of its territory to Russia, asked which part of Slovakia he would cede to Russia. Fico dismissed this, saying he did not talk to media outlets that are co-owned by George Soros, before leaving the press conference" https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/23/7438565/
Interesting analysis of Russian MIAs in #Ukraine using telegram channel requests by people looking for relatives/loved ones (by https://twitter.com/delfoo) https://stanimirdobrev.substack.com/p/russias-missing-men?r=3b5rpl
According to an official from the Russian Interior Ministry "since the beginning of the war, there have been 220 attempts to set fire to draft offices and 184 attempts to carry out sabotage on the railways across 58 regions of Russia" - while the practical impact is negligible, that's a non-trivial number of people risking (and frequently receiving) long prison terms
JFC, what a horror https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/01/24/military-plane-reportedly-carrying-63-people-crashes-in-russia-s-belgorod-region
Military plane reportedly transporting over 60 Ukrainian POWs crashes in Russia’s Belgorod region — Meduza
An Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed in the Korochansky District of Russia’s Belgorod region near the Ukrainian border on Wednesday at around noon local time, according to multiple Telegram channels. According to the channel 112, there were 63 people on board. Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov confirmed that all of the passengers were killed in the crash.
I don't at all buy the suggestion Russia deliberately set up the plane to be shot down, IL-76 and crew are pretty valuable. More likely the same arrogant incompetence that has characterized so much of the war
ISW's summary notably omits the fact Ukrainian sources initially claimed the shootdown https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2024
Institute for the Study of War
A Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, on January 24. Geolocated footage posted by various Russian sources shows the Il-76 crashing in Yablonovo, Belgorod Oblast (about 50km northeast of Belgorod City). The
Not at all surprised Russia is still able to import chips, stuff that's available on the open market everywhere else in the world is going to be almost impossible to stop. I am somewhat more surprised it keeps being confirmed by Russian customs data though. Bureaucrats gonna bureaucrat, I guess ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russia-imported-over-1-billion-worth-of-advanced-us-and-european-chips-in-2023/
Bloomberg: Russia imported over $1 billion worth of advanced US and European chips in 2023
Despite sanctions, Russia imported advanced chips valued at more than $1 billion from U.S. and European companies during the initial nine months of 2023, according to classified data from the Russian customs service obtained by Bloomberg.
"The best way to stop the strikes, he said, would be to use [HIMARS] to hit the launch sites in Russia. But Washington, which provided the systems, has barred Ukraine from using them to hit targets within Russia — a limitation Strilok called “absurd.”" - Gotta agree, prohibiting counter battery fire is pretty absurd
Early on the US was reportedly actively involved in setting up individual targets, which could reasonably be cause for concern, but giving Russia a big old safe zone to shell with impunity is pretty shitty. Also means the only options Ukraine has for return fire are less accurate and more likely to cause civilian casualties
In which six former US ambassadors to Ukraine take a sledgehammer to that bizarre CFR piece where Thomas Graham argued Ukraine has made little democratic progress since '91
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/ukraine-committed-europe-democracy-graham-eu
In which The Insider apparently rolls a sanctions busting GRU agent in Brussels https://theins.press/en/politics/268669
Our man in Brussels: The Insider has unmasked the GRU officer helping the Kremlin evade sanctions from his ...
Russian military intelligence (GRU) officer Viktor Labin has set up shop in Brussels, home to the European Commission and NATO headquarters. From his office in a nondescript seven-story building on the outskirts of the Belgian capital, Labin supplies Russian arms manufacturers with European-made coordinate-measuring machines, a high-tech machine tool critical in the production of the Kremlin’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile. The sanctions-busting operation has become a family business. Labin’s younger son runs the Moscow-based middleman that delivers his father’s shipments to end users in Russia, while his elder son pitches in by organizing pro-Kremlin protests across Europe. Despite the Labin family’s unabashed efforts to aid the Russian military-industrial complex, none of them has been placed on the European Union’s sanctions list.RU
Continuing their roll, The Insider reports openly pro-Russia Latvian MEP Tatjana Zdanoka has been in regular contact with FSB handlers for the last 20 years or more
https://theins.press/en/politics/268694
Exclusive: Latvian Member of European Parliament is an agent of Russian intelligence, leaked emails confirm
Tatjana Zdanoka MEP has spent decades openly advocating for Moscow from both Riga and Strasbourg. The Insider can today reveal that Zdanoka was working on behalf of the FSB’s Fifth Service, reporting to two different handlers from at least 2004 to 2017.
"Kommersant reported on January 29 that the Russian Ministry of Digital Development ordered Russian authorities in Leningrad, Novgorod, and Pskov oblasts to block 4G LTE internet connection until January 30 so that Russian officials can “fine-tune” anti-drone and air defense systems" 🤨
(official story seems be about interference, but I wonder if Ukraine has started using LTE on their drones, as Russia reportedly did)
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-29-2024
Institute for the Study of War
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied rumors about the purported resignation or dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi on January 29. Ukrainian People’s Deputy Oleksii Honcharenko claimed on January 29 that “
So I guess that earlier strike (https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/111710722333819009) wasn't GLSDB. Also a bit unfortunate politico went for the scoop instead of letting it be a surprise https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/30/new-us-made-longer-range-bomb-expected-to-arrive-as-soon-wednesday-in-ukraine-00138566
A thread from Brady Africk on Russia's painted decoy planes. I still wonder if this is based on specific intel (they know Ukraine is using some optical sensor that would be fooled by this kind of thing), or just "it's cheap, why not" or make-work so the commanders can say they did something. Also kinda wonder why they don't just use real boneyard airframes, you'd think there'd be plenty of Soviet era junk that could be spruced up with a little spray paint
Brady Africk (@bradyafr) on X
As Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities have grown, so has the number of decoys at Russian air bases involved in the invasion of Ukraine. This thread shows several of the decoys Russian forces have painted at air bases that were once beyond Kyiv’s reach. (1/8)
TFW everything is going according to plan on day 700-something of your three day special military operation https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1752965500697460967
KIU ✪ Russian Officers killed in Ukraine 🇨🇿🇺🇦 (@KilledInUkraine) on X
At least 3 500 Russian officers have been eliminated in Ukraine since 24. February 2022. Confirmation for each name from a Russian source is available in our dataset (obituary, grave, memorial plaque, etc.), see @KilledInUkraine
How much Russian oil infrastructure does Ukraine have to hit to have a practical impact? From this reuters report, seems like they're pretty close (though not clear how many of the incidents are releated) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-cuts-gasoline-diesel-exports-offset-refinery-outages-2024-01-31/
"Kyiv Research Institute of Forensic Expertise published a mini-study on Russian Orlan-10 drones. All recent samples examined contain geolocation trackers, equipped with autonomous power sources and SIM card slots … if a UAV is not dismantled on-site and the tracking module is not destroyed but brought intact to a Ukrainian base, it can reveal its last known location to the RuAF"
Hmm, airtags would probably have reasonable chance of success too
Russia's mass abduction of children from #Ukraine "Every day they said to me that I would be staying here for ever and would never leave Russia … They told me that Ukraine doesn’t exist, that it never existed, that we’re all Russians … At times the other kids would beat me for being pro-Ukrainian" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/04/they-told-me-were-all-russians-re-education-of-ukrainian-children
Weird how the European far right's Russian pals keep turning out to be FSB agents 🤔 Probably just a coincidence https://theins.press/en/politics/268921
How the FSB tried to buy an Italian political party
In 2018, representatives of Italy’s far-right Liga party traveled to Moscow in search of financing from Kremlin-connected sources. Their meeting, held at the historical Metropol Hotel near Red Square, was reported in 2019, along with details of a proposal to launder $65 million in support for the Italian party through an oil trading scheme. What was not known at the time, however, was the professional affiliation of one of the participants on the Russian side. After a months-long investigation, The Insider can now reveal that at least one of the Russian representatives was an officer of the FSB’s Fifth Service, which has a mandate to disrupt democracies abroad.RU
Should, but almost certainly won't be cause for some introspection by the NAFO types who spent the last week attacking reporters who accurately reported this was coming https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/08/volodymyr-zelenskiy-fires-top-ukraine-army-commander
People who report things you don't want to hear aren't necessarily Russian stooges, and yes, reporters rely on anonymous sources, and you can make a pretty good guess based on their track record how seriously or not to take them
Slightly more serious (cf https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/111886347232013751) take on the Tucker thing: Many of the far right chucklefucks holding up #Ukraine aid in the house are undoubtedly Tucker fans, so whether by chance or plan, pretty optimal timing for Putin
Next time someone gives you shit for hanging on to old gear, you can remind them of that time keeping 30,000 Maxim guns in storage for 80+ years really paid off
Russia using #starlink in #Ukraine is generally bad, but seems like there should be an opportunity for some three letter agencies to hook the Russians up with a really good deal on black market Starlink terminals (custom firmware by Fort Meade, no extra charge 😉 )
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-military-reportedly-using-starlink-inside-ukraine/
This denial from Musk is mostly beside the point (no one serious is alleging SpaceX is intentionally selling Starlink to Russia, and obviously the concern operating them in occupied Ukraine, not Russia) but uh… "or indirectly" 🤨
(then again, I suppose anything goes with "to the best of our knowledge" if your knowledge is shit enough)
Musk: "To the best of our knowledge, no Starlinks have been sold directly or indirectly to Russia"
RFE/RL reporter: "A quick Google search revels dozens of companies selling Starlinks to Russia, some of them advertising it as the 'Starlinks for special military operation'" https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1757398274799992966 (story in Russian https://www.svoboda.org/a/budet-rabotatj-poka-idet-voyna-kto-prodaet-starlinki-dlya-svo-/32817880.html)
The Insider has an English write up
https://theins.press/en/news/269107
https://theins.press/en/news/269107
Starlink terminals for use in occupied Ukraine can be bought in Russia from private sellers starting from $...
SpaceX’s Starlink internet terminals “specifically for the special military operation” can be bought from private sellers in Russia for 240 to 299 thousand roubles ($2,600 to $3,300) per unit, according to a report by the independent investigative publication Important Stories (IStories). As IStories found out in a conversation with representatives of three Russian websites where the terminals are sold, the Starlink terminals work only near Ukraine’s borders, and the devices’ accounts are connected to the larger satellite network through Poland.
Головне управління розвідки МО України
#працюєГУР 🔥 “Magura” знищила «цезаря» ― розвідники потопили великий десантний корабель чф рф 🫡 14 лютого 2024 року Головне управління розвідки у взаємодії з усіма складовими Сил безпеки і оборони України знищили великий десантний корабель «цезарь куніков» чорноморського флоту держави-агресора росії. 🦉 Успішну місію здійснили спецпризначенці «Групи 13» ГУР МО України. 🤝 Реалізація спецоперації стала можливою за підтримки платформи United24. 💥 Ворожий корабель атакували ударними морськими дронами “Magura V5” біля берегів тимчасово окупованого Криму неподалік міста Алупка. ☑️ У підсумку «цезарь куніков» отримав критичні пробоїни по лівому борту і почав тонути. Символічно, що російський офіцер, чиїм іменем назвали корабель, був убитий рівно 81 рік тому. ⚡️ Великий десантний корабель «цезарь куніков» проекту 775 ― одне із найновіших російських суден. Міг вміщати 87 членів екіпажу на борту. Використовувався терористичною москвою під час воєн проти Грузії, Сирії та України. ❗️ Пошуково-рятувальна операція окупантів успіху не мала. 🇺🇦 Слава Україні! ГУР в інших соціальних мережах: 🔹Facebook 🔹YouTube 🔹 Viber 🔹Instagram 🔹Twitter 🔹 TikTok
"…has raised questions about whether this was a Russian-ordered assassination carried out on European soil" 🤨 my dudes I know you don't want to get ahead of the facts and that's great, but uh, I think it does a bit more than raising the question
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/20/spain-russia-ukraine-kuminov-assassination-defector/
In the latest big Swedish package "underwater weapons such as mines and torpedoes" 🤨 (torpedoes would seem to make an excellent addition to #Ukraine's USV capability)
"Meanwhile, in Samara, a court deemed the act of laying flowers as petty hooliganism…" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-feb-18-19-2024
CAR reports the #DPRK KN-23/KN-24 missile used in #Ukraine had "more than 290 non-domestic electronic components" but this is kinda uninformative without distinguishing between specialist components and stuff anyone with a credit card can buy in thousands quantities from AliExpress https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/0814c6868bbd45a98b15693a31bd0e7f
Not great: #Iran "has provided #Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters" https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/
Raytheon customer satisfaction survey: On a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate this Patriot SAM battery?
KpsZSU: Oh, I'd say it's about… A-50 https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1761091710594039822
Western observers: Bit far for Patriot, but what else? 🤔
Russian sources / Z telegram: Probably friendly fire, again
Ukraine: Nah, we shot it down with a 60-year old Soviet SAM
IMO the friendly fire explanation strains credulity. Shooting down one of your own AWACS would be astonishingly bad, two in separate incidents in the same zone? Not buying it without solid evidence
Ukraine has had two years to rig modern electronics onto S-200 airframes (and we know they modded them for land attack) so that doesn't seem out of the question. OTOH Patriot being a bit more capable than acknowledged in public sources would seem plausible too, and A-50s might be particularly vulnerable to anti-radiation modes
Given the Russians lost two in apparently similar circumstances, it seems likely they didn't fully understand the first incident
One reason I don't buy the friendly fire explanation (aside from the obvious "even the dumbest grunt SAM crew should know where their AWACS is, especially after a previous crew allegedly shot one down") is the potential targets in the area are small, slow drones, Storm Shadow cruise missiles, or supersonic S-200s. None of them should look much like a big lumbering four engine jet
Possible counter-arguments: SAM crew launches at a real (or Ukraine EW generated) target in the same area, missiles lock onto the A-50? Seems unlikely, and even if possible, after the first incident you'd expect extreme measures to prevent it happening again
Or Ukraine compromised C&C? Or SAM operators secretly working for ATESH? But again, pulling that off just once would be amazing, twice would be ridiculous
OTOH, here's video apparently showing launches 🤯 (edit, though *after* the A-50 is already popping flares) https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1761166106113253571
Two years into Putin's three day special military operation, BBC and Mediazona have identified over 45,000 individual Russian soldiers killed in #Ukraine from obituaries and news reports, not including LNR/DNR. They estimate the total is over 110,000 https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/counting-russias-dead-in-ukraine
Not all the RU sources are going with the friendly fire story, VChK-OGPU says (google translate): "Sources of the Cheka-OGPU said that the next AWACS A 50 U plane shot down today was most likely hit by a Patriot missile system, and was guided to the target by a mobile small-sized broadband reconnaissance radar, which is deployed on a small UAV and can fly in deep to the rear" 🤔 (I have doubts) https://t.me/vchkogpu/46047
ВЧК-ОГПУ
Источники ВЧК-ОГПУ рассказали, что очередной сбитый сегодня самолет ДРЛО А 50 У, скорее всего, был поражен ракетным комплексом Patriot (Пэтриот), а наводил его на цель мобильный малогабаритный широкополосный радар разведчик, который развернут на небольшом БПЛА и может проводить полет в глубоком тылу . Обнаружить его сигнал очень и очень сложно, при этом такие новинки способны не просто обнаруживать, сопровождать и давать целеуказание, но и различать силуэт цели, определять ее тип визуально. Для ракет Пэтриот 300 км не самое сложное расстояние, шансов уцелеть у самолета АВАКС не было никаких. В настоящее время оцеплено место падения самолета, всех зевак и журналистов выгнали, по центральным федеральным телевизионным каналам прошла команда говорить только о пожаре и больше ничего. Подобных машин в российской армии было не более 10 на момент вторжения в Украину. Восполнять очень сложно, нужен самолет и более 15 тонн электронно комплектной базы, которая в осноаном делается не в РФ.
Meanwhile Baza reported earlier (google translate) "According to preliminary data, two aircraft were shot down in the sky over the Krasnodar Territory.
One of them is a UAV. Data on the second aircraft is being clarified."
A UAV (or operators thinking there was one) could explain the SAM fire
If the HUR map is to be believed, the shootdown location was ~160km from the front line, and indeed, occurred around the closest point. Obviously Ukraine isn't going to park a Patriot launcher right on the front line, but still, stretching the widely reported 160 km range of PAC-2 a bit against a big, fat predictable target doesn't seem like a completely ridiculous idea https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1761101634904453405
Defence intelligence of Ukraine (@DI_Ukraine) on X
💥 Мінус А-50У ― ГУР та Повітряні Сили збили черговий літак рф 🤝 У результаті спільної операції Головного управління розвідки Міністерства оборони України та Повітряних Сил ЗСУ над Азовським морем збили черговий цінний російський літак А-50У. 🔗 https://t.co/XCddds5IaN
Also, if it was a Ukrainian SAM, the northern half of Crimea is potentially under similar threat, though presumably only a smaller portion at any one time given the limited number of batteries
OK one more dumb thought: Did the Russians pick that flight path because they read on wikipedia that PAC-2 max range is 160km? 🤔
Two years and two days into Putin's three day special military operation, stopping NATO expansion is going great https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68405893
"while intoxicated, [an ex Wagnerite] broke into a fellow villager's house and beat him to death with a wooden bat… The court considered as mitigating factors the fact that the defendant has four children and his receipt of the "For Courage" medal for participating in combat operations in Ukraine" and sentenced him to six years, which is about what AWOLs seem to typically get https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-feb-25-26-2024
Ben Brockert@reedmideke pshht awacs, more like awhoops