Reed Mideke"A Russian artist [Alexandra Skochilenko] who replaced supermarket price tags with messages calling for an end to Moscow's war in Ukraine was jailed for seven years on Thursday"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-artist-who-used-supermarket-price-tags-criticise-ukraine-war-faces-2023-11-16/
Russian artist who used supermarket price tags to criticise Ukraine war faces verdict
A Russian artist who replaced supermarket price tags with messages calling for an end to Moscow's war in Ukraine is expected to learn her fate in court on Thursday with a state prosecutor asking for her to be jailed for eight years.
People seem surprised by #Ukraine finding Russian #Drones with cell connectivity, but the biggest surprise for me is that Ukraine wasn't (as far as we know) already doing it. Seems like an obvious way to improve terminal guidance, and surely HUR would have little trouble obtaining SIMs that work in Russia https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/12/01/sim-card-from-ukrainian-telecom-operator-found-inside-downed-russian-drone
SIM card from Ukrainian telecom operator found inside downed Russian drone — Meduza
A SIM card from the Ukrainian telecommunications operator Kyivstar was found inside a downed Shahed drone, which Russia used to attack Ukraine. Experts are investigating how the SIM card ended up in the drone and why it was needed, news outlet RBC Ukraine reports Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat as saying in a telethon.
RFE/RL with a deep dive into the the Redut "private military company" which turns out to be a very thin GRU front
https://www.rferl.org/a/redut-fake-russia-gru-pmc-ukraine/32708853.html
The Redut Ruse: Inside Russia’s Fake Private Mercenary Company Fighting In Ukraine
A new interactive investigation by RFE/RL reveals the inner workings of a secretive scheme by Russian military intelligence to recruit fighters for the Kremlin's war on Ukraine under the guise of a fictitious private military company.
#Ukraine has launched a database of electronic components found in Russian and Iranian weapons. Lot of these are gonna be extremely hard to stop https://sanctions.nazk.gov.ua/en/military-components/
Orlan 10 apparently uses a @[email protected] 3B https://sanctions.nazk.gov.ua/en/military-components/2580/
10 years ago, Putin started down the path to war because he couldn't tolerate Ukraine entering an association agreement with the EU
https://kyivindependent.com/european-council-agrees-to-open-accession-talks-with-ukraine-moldova/
https://kyivindependent.com/european-council-agrees-to-open-accession-talks-with-ukraine-moldova/
"Beyond the harbor walls, aircraft are the main threat to Ukrainian USVs" - Seems like it shouldn't be that hard to come up with a way to launch MANPADS or other low end IR homing SAMs from a #USV, which would be a nasty surprise to the guys trying to machine gun them from a helicopter https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/12/russia-forced-to-adapt-to-ukraines-maritime-drone-warfare-in-black-sea/
Article also notes "One recent anti-USV counter is to use a small drone flown from a patrol boat" -
Given Ukraine's USVs appear to have two-way satellite link, wonder if they've considered using them as relays to do this in the other direction?
Given Ukraine's USVs appear to have two-way satellite link, wonder if they've considered using them as relays to do this in the other direction?
Sounds like Feodosia, occupied Crimea got a Storm Shadow or two for Christmas (rumored, a Project 775 carrying ammunition) 🔥
https://nitter.net/bayraktar_1love/status/1739460184827691313#m
https://nitter.net/bayraktar_1love/status/1739460184827691313#m
Yeah, that's an ex-Ropucha (also one warehouse next to the quay has evaporated, several others are damaged, and the ship at bottom center is doing a submarine impression)
Hmm, the warehouse looks like it's actually still there https://nitter.net/kromark/status/1740081958363807852#m
Was obvious at the time the Russian occupation authorities response to the Kakhovka dam collapse was negligent at best, now AP reports compelling evidence they deliberately covered up the death toll
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-dam-collapse-kakhovka-kherson-daacdc431f42912dfb91548794f03a3c
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-dam-collapse-kakhovka-kherson-daacdc431f42912dfb91548794f03a3c
At least hundreds died in floods after Ukraine dam collapse, far more than Russia said
An AP investigation has found that Russian occupation authorities vastly and deliberately undercounted the dead in one of the most devastating chapters of the 22-month war in Ukraine — the flooding that followed the catastrophic explosion that destroyed the Kakhovka Dam in the southern Kherson region. Russia said 59 people drowned in the territory it controls. But The Associated Press determined the number is at least in the hundreds in the town of Oleshky alone. Health workers and others who were in Oleshky told the AP that Russian authorities hid the true number by taking control of the issuance of death certificates, immediately removing bodies not claimed by family, and preventing local health workers and volunteers from dealing with the dead.
"In Moscow, a court has sentenced Artyom Kamardin and Yegor Shtovba to seven and five and a half years in prison, respectively, for participating in the Mayakovsky Readings poetry event… The prosecutors’ theory is that Kamardin's poems called for not taking draft notices from representatives of military commissariats, not signing acknowledgements of receiving draft notices and not reporting to military commissariats" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-26-28-2023
Ukrainska Pravda with a deep look at #ukraine's #USV program, with one officer noting the obvious direction "Ukraine does not have the time or money to build large warships, but a swarm of drones, which will include anti-aircraft drones, kamikaze drones, drones with guns and so on"
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/01/1/7435326/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/01/1/7435326/
Included is a clip of a #USV firing some kind of small, unguided MLRS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59hbo4gZw_A
шмель | Українська правда
Ukrainska Pravda posted an English translation of their big #Ukraine #USV article
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/01/1/7435326/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/01/1/7435326/
"A second official said that the North Korean projectiles were short-range ballistic missiles that Moscow fired in late December and early January" 🤨
Presumably not Scuds or any of the other liquid fueled stuff, maybe KN-02? One of the big MLRS? Something newer like KN-23 or KN-24?
Most of those seem like they'd require significant crew training, unless DPRK is providing operators too
AP reports #DPRK missiles #Russia used to attack #Ukraine "have a range of about 550 miles", which seems to make KN-23 the closest fit
US says Russia used North Korean missiles in Ukraine
The White House says U.S. intelligence officials have determined that Russia has acquired ballistic missiles from North Korea and is seeking close-range ballistic missiles from Iran as Moscow struggles to replenish arms for its war with Ukraine. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Thursday that recently declassified intelligence found that North Korea has provided Russia with ballistic missile launchers and several ballistic missiles. Kirby said a Russia-Iran deal had not been completed. But, he said, the U.S. “is concerned that Russia's negotiations to acquire close range ballistic missiles from Iran are actively advancing.”
I think graphic (via https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1742976043307131292) from Kirby's briefing (CSPAN clip here https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1742980763887272314) shows both KN-23 and KN-24, but probably just illustrative examples. Launch site seems to be south of Voronezh, maybe in the vicinity of Korotoyak (unclear how specific graphic is supposed to be). Kirby stated one launch on Dec 30 landed in a field near Zaporizhzhia, additional launches on Jan 2 being evaluated
John Hudson (@John_Hudson) on X
On Thursday, White House spokesman John Kirby unveiled a map showing where Russia launched the North Korean missiles into Ukraine (near Zaporizhzhia). "We anticipate that Russia will use additional North Korean missiles to target Ukraine civilian infrastructure," Kirby said
Seems to be a significant military facility on the north side of Ostrogozhsk 50°52'33.0"N 39°03'20.0"E (street view shows tanks in 2021)
Apparently hosted "repair crew event in the Maters of Armored Vehicles contest" in August 2022 http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/TopStories_209189/10179391.html
IAG 2022: "Masters of Armored Vehicles" repair crew event kicks off - China Military
China Eastern Airlines flight MU5735, en route from Kunming to Guangzhou, lost contact and crashed over Wuzhou city of South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region at 14:38 on March 21. The PLA Southern Theater Command launched the emergency response mechanism at the news.
Also quite close to the Petropavlovka Russia accidentally hit on Jan 3 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-accidentally-bombs-own-village-vows-rebuild-homes-2024-01-03/
(there are several, but from street view I think it's this one https://www.google.com/maps/place/Petropavlovka,+Voronezh+Oblast,+Russia,+397814/@51.0035644,39.1879327,5884m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x41249c3e14d95049:0xdaf0ce26fbd4d0e8!8m2!3d51.0056017!4d39.1989549!16s%2Fg%2F11bbt0vjhg?entry=ttu)
HUR claims a cross border raid into Belgorod, which IMO is far more sensible than outsourcing to the neonazis in the Russian Volunteer Corps and making implausible denials https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-claims-cross-border-raid-on-russian-positions-in-belgorod-oblast/
Jeffrey Lewis makes a strong case missile debris from a Jan 2 strike on Kharkiv was North Korean, though unclear whether KN-23 or KN-24 (Hwasong-11A or 11B)
https://nitter.net/ArmsControlWonk/status/1743401762151657822#m
Two interesting things about this recent #Ukraine strike on #Crimea:
1) Claimed "ammunition warehouses" but no major secondary damage
2) Hits seem extremely precise, 2 munitions per warehouse (except one, miss/dud?). Target is ~130km from front line. Ukraine wouldn't burn 7+ Storm shadows on this, and holes seem small for that. Not consistent with ATACMS either
Has #GLSDB finally arrived?
https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-satellite-images-confirm-strike/
Could maybe be drones or some other domestic innovation, but I don't think we've seen a grid like that previously from much other than GMLRS, which is out of range
Missed this earlier: UK quietly developed and shipped a ground launch ASRAAM system to Ukraine
(someone should be working on the USV / UAV version)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-uk-bolsters-ukraines-air-defence-after-putins-latest-air-strikes
(someone should be working on the USV / UAV version)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-uk-bolsters-ukraines-air-defence-after-putins-latest-air-strikes
Report on Russian POWs in Ukraine is a quite a contrast from what people who make it out of the Russian system describe
https://spektr.press/neispravimye-reportazh-iz-lagerya/
https://spektr.press/neispravimye-reportazh-iz-lagerya/
Неисправимые. Репортаж из лагеря для военнопленных, где российские призывники, контрактники и зэки ожидают своей участи
3 января, после пятимесячного перерыва, Россия и Украина вновь обменялись пленными. Домой уехало больше, чем обычно — 230 и 248 человек. На этот раз Украина не смогла вернуть никого из защитников Мариуполя из числа бойцов полка «Азов», но впервые вернула шестерых, задержанных на оккупированных территориях, «гражданских» украинцев. Россия, по словам омбудсмена РФ Татьяны Москальковой, смогла получить 75 человек «без обмена» — в счет старых долгов за освобождение командиров «Азова».
Signs your 3-day special military operation is going according to plan: "Russian Pension Fund had sent a letter to employees of its regional offices instructing them to delete the data on welfare payments to participants of the "special military operation"… This information could reveal the scale of Russian losses and the number of military personnel who have received disability status" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-9-11-2024
#Ukraine essentially bragging they neutralized a bunch of missiles with EW, which seems like something you wouldn't brag about if you'd actually done it 🤔 https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/13/7437099/
Another good long form interview from Ukrainska Pravda, this time with Commander of the Ukrainian Navy Vice Admiral Oleksii Neizhpapa https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/01/11/7436682/
Rumors today a Russian A-50 AWACS and an IL-22M command & control plane was shot down by #Ukraine, or possibly friendly fire. Seems pretty clear something significant happened, but not exactly what
Russian losses reported on FighterBomber almost always check out, though notably they didn't go into the specifics
Stop, AASM HAMMER time. (It's basically a sparkling JDAM but the additional guidance options and rocket assist should be welcome)
Not that there was much doubt, but Conflict Armament Research reports compelling evidence a #DPRK missile (likely KN-23 or KN-24) was used in #Ukraine
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/3a4e9d713f59426d9d1ea3881abecbf3
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/3a4e9d713f59426d9d1ea3881abecbf3
"Another journalist, recalling Fico's earlier suggestion that Ukraine would have to give up some of its territory to Russia, asked which part of Slovakia he would cede to Russia. Fico dismissed this, saying he did not talk to media outlets that are co-owned by George Soros, before leaving the press conference" https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/23/7438565/
Interesting analysis of Russian MIAs in #Ukraine using telegram channel requests by people looking for relatives/loved ones (by https://twitter.com/delfoo) https://stanimirdobrev.substack.com/p/russias-missing-men?r=3b5rpl
According to an official from the Russian Interior Ministry "since the beginning of the war, there have been 220 attempts to set fire to draft offices and 184 attempts to carry out sabotage on the railways across 58 regions of Russia" - while the practical impact is negligible, that's a non-trivial number of people risking (and frequently receiving) long prison terms
JFC, what a horror https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/01/24/military-plane-reportedly-carrying-63-people-crashes-in-russia-s-belgorod-region
Military plane reportedly transporting over 60 Ukrainian POWs crashes in Russia’s Belgorod region — Meduza
An Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed in the Korochansky District of Russia’s Belgorod region near the Ukrainian border on Wednesday at around noon local time, according to multiple Telegram channels. According to the channel 112, there were 63 people on board. Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov confirmed that all of the passengers were killed in the crash.
I don't at all buy the suggestion Russia deliberately set up the plane to be shot down, IL-76 and crew are pretty valuable. More likely the same arrogant incompetence that has characterized so much of the war
ISW's summary notably omits the fact Ukrainian sources initially claimed the shootdown https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2024
Institute for the Study of War
A Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, on January 24. Geolocated footage posted by various Russian sources shows the Il-76 crashing in Yablonovo, Belgorod Oblast (about 50km northeast of Belgorod City). The
Not at all surprised Russia is still able to import chips, stuff that's available on the open market everywhere else in the world is going to be almost impossible to stop. I am somewhat more surprised it keeps being confirmed by Russian customs data though. Bureaucrats gonna bureaucrat, I guess ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russia-imported-over-1-billion-worth-of-advanced-us-and-european-chips-in-2023/
Bloomberg: Russia imported over $1 billion worth of advanced US and European chips in 2023
Despite sanctions, Russia imported advanced chips valued at more than $1 billion from U.S. and European companies during the initial nine months of 2023, according to classified data from the Russian customs service obtained by Bloomberg.
"The best way to stop the strikes, he said, would be to use [HIMARS] to hit the launch sites in Russia. But Washington, which provided the systems, has barred Ukraine from using them to hit targets within Russia — a limitation Strilok called “absurd.”" - Gotta agree, prohibiting counter battery fire is pretty absurd
Early on the US was reportedly actively involved in setting up individual targets, which could reasonably be cause for concern, but giving Russia a big old safe zone to shell with impunity is pretty shitty. Also means the only options Ukraine has for return fire are less accurate and more likely to cause civilian casualties
In which six former US ambassadors to Ukraine take a sledgehammer to that bizarre CFR piece where Thomas Graham argued Ukraine has made little democratic progress since '91
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/ukraine-committed-europe-democracy-graham-eu
In which The Insider apparently rolls a sanctions busting GRU agent in Brussels https://theins.press/en/politics/268669
Our man in Brussels: The Insider has unmasked the GRU officer helping the Kremlin evade sanctions from his ...
Russian military intelligence (GRU) officer Viktor Labin has set up shop in Brussels, home to the European Commission and NATO headquarters. From his office in a nondescript seven-story building on the outskirts of the Belgian capital, Labin supplies Russian arms manufacturers with European-made coordinate-measuring machines, a high-tech machine tool critical in the production of the Kremlin’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile. The sanctions-busting operation has become a family business. Labin’s younger son runs the Moscow-based middleman that delivers his father’s shipments to end users in Russia, while his elder son pitches in by organizing pro-Kremlin protests across Europe. Despite the Labin family’s unabashed efforts to aid the Russian military-industrial complex, none of them has been placed on the European Union’s sanctions list.RU
Continuing their roll, The Insider reports openly pro-Russia Latvian MEP Tatjana Zdanoka has been in regular contact with FSB handlers for the last 20 years or more
https://theins.press/en/politics/268694
Exclusive: Latvian Member of European Parliament is an agent of Russian intelligence, leaked emails confirm
Tatjana Zdanoka MEP has spent decades openly advocating for Moscow from both Riga and Strasbourg. The Insider can today reveal that Zdanoka was working on behalf of the FSB’s Fifth Service, reporting to two different handlers from at least 2004 to 2017.
"Kommersant reported on January 29 that the Russian Ministry of Digital Development ordered Russian authorities in Leningrad, Novgorod, and Pskov oblasts to block 4G LTE internet connection until January 30 so that Russian officials can “fine-tune” anti-drone and air defense systems" 🤨
(official story seems be about interference, but I wonder if Ukraine has started using LTE on their drones, as Russia reportedly did)
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-29-2024
Institute for the Study of War
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied rumors about the purported resignation or dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi on January 29. Ukrainian People’s Deputy Oleksii Honcharenko claimed on January 29 that “
So I guess that earlier strike (https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/111710722333819009) wasn't GLSDB. Also a bit unfortunate politico went for the scoop instead of letting it be a surprise https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/30/new-us-made-longer-range-bomb-expected-to-arrive-as-soon-wednesday-in-ukraine-00138566
A thread from Brady Africk on Russia's painted decoy planes. I still wonder if this is based on specific intel (they know Ukraine is using some optical sensor that would be fooled by this kind of thing), or just "it's cheap, why not" or make-work so the commanders can say they did something. Also kinda wonder why they don't just use real boneyard airframes, you'd think there'd be plenty of Soviet era junk that could be spruced up with a little spray paint
Brady Africk (@bradyafr) on X
As Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities have grown, so has the number of decoys at Russian air bases involved in the invasion of Ukraine. This thread shows several of the decoys Russian forces have painted at air bases that were once beyond Kyiv’s reach. (1/8)
TFW everything is going according to plan on day 700-something of your three day special military operation https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1752965500697460967
KIU ✪ Russian Officers killed in Ukraine 🇨🇿🇺🇦 (@KilledInUkraine) on X
At least 3 500 Russian officers have been eliminated in Ukraine since 24. February 2022. Confirmation for each name from a Russian source is available in our dataset (obituary, grave, memorial plaque, etc.), see @KilledInUkraine
How much Russian oil infrastructure does Ukraine have to hit to have a practical impact? From this reuters report, seems like they're pretty close (though not clear how many of the incidents are releated) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-cuts-gasoline-diesel-exports-offset-refinery-outages-2024-01-31/
"Kyiv Research Institute of Forensic Expertise published a mini-study on Russian Orlan-10 drones. All recent samples examined contain geolocation trackers, equipped with autonomous power sources and SIM card slots … if a UAV is not dismantled on-site and the tracking module is not destroyed but brought intact to a Ukrainian base, it can reveal its last known location to the RuAF"
Hmm, airtags would probably have reasonable chance of success too
Russia's mass abduction of children from #Ukraine "Every day they said to me that I would be staying here for ever and would never leave Russia … They told me that Ukraine doesn’t exist, that it never existed, that we’re all Russians … At times the other kids would beat me for being pro-Ukrainian" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/04/they-told-me-were-all-russians-re-education-of-ukrainian-children
Weird how the European far right's Russian pals keep turning out to be FSB agents 🤔 Probably just a coincidence https://theins.press/en/politics/268921
How the FSB tried to buy an Italian political party
In 2018, representatives of Italy’s far-right Liga party traveled to Moscow in search of financing from Kremlin-connected sources. Their meeting, held at the historical Metropol Hotel near Red Square, was reported in 2019, along with details of a proposal to launder $65 million in support for the Italian party through an oil trading scheme. What was not known at the time, however, was the professional affiliation of one of the participants on the Russian side. After a months-long investigation, The Insider can now reveal that at least one of the Russian representatives was an officer of the FSB’s Fifth Service, which has a mandate to disrupt democracies abroad.RU
Should, but almost certainly won't be cause for some introspection by the NAFO types who spent the last week attacking reporters who accurately reported this was coming https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/08/volodymyr-zelenskiy-fires-top-ukraine-army-commander
People who report things you don't want to hear aren't necessarily Russian stooges, and yes, reporters rely on anonymous sources, and you can make a pretty good guess based on their track record how seriously or not to take them
Slightly more serious (cf https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/111886347232013751) take on the Tucker thing: Many of the far right chucklefucks holding up #Ukraine aid in the house are undoubtedly Tucker fans, so whether by chance or plan, pretty optimal timing for Putin
Next time someone gives you shit for hanging on to old gear, you can remind them of that time keeping 30,000 Maxim guns in storage for 80+ years really paid off
Russia using #starlink in #Ukraine is generally bad, but seems like there should be an opportunity for some three letter agencies to hook the Russians up with a really good deal on black market Starlink terminals (custom firmware by Fort Meade, no extra charge 😉 )
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-military-reportedly-using-starlink-inside-ukraine/
This denial from Musk is mostly beside the point (no one serious is alleging SpaceX is intentionally selling Starlink to Russia, and obviously the concern operating them in occupied Ukraine, not Russia) but uh… "or indirectly" 🤨
(then again, I suppose anything goes with "to the best of our knowledge" if your knowledge is shit enough)
simonbp@reedmideke Taking out a refinery cab be very effective, as there aren't that many of them and they're very complicated to fix. It's pretty routine for them to knocked out for months in the US, with substantially fewer supply chain constraints.