Reed Mideke👀
"19.10.23. Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast, Ukraine. Remember this date and place.
It was the biggest Russian disaster. Bigger than Bilogorivka last year."
FT with a twist on the sidewinder mystery: “Those [AIM-9] missiles were out of operation,” said a senior Ukrainian official in reference to a batch of that type supplied to Ukraine. “We fixed them. We found a way of launching them from the ground. It’s a kind of self-made air defence”
That might explain the oddly low number initially delivered by Canada
https://www.ft.com/content/69cf1288-0156-4b8f-a770-cacb05988596?shareType=nongift
(possibly paywall free if linked from this tweet https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1716673933938737554)
"Ramzan Kadyrov announced the completion of mustering for a new battalion, named after Sheikh Mansur [famous leader of the resistance against Russian imperialism during the 18th century]. The battalion will fight under the aegis of the Russian Ministry of Defense, despite a similarly named battalion already taking part in the war on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-oct-23-24-2023
NYT with various tidbits about the #Ukraine "FrankenSAM" effort, which is apparently now an umbrella term for various systems, including BUK + Sea Sparrow, AIM-9s paired with some unspecified radar, and "a Patriot missile and launching station that operates with Ukraine’s older, domestically made radar systems" 🤨
#Ukraine locally developed de-mining #UGV https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/29/kharkiv-oblast-receives-new-domestic-mine-clearance-vehicle/
ISW bringing the hard-hitting analysis you won't find anywhere else
"The milblogger claimed that “traitors” abducted the raccoon and left occupied Ukraine… Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated that the raccoon had previously attacked Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo and criticized the Russians for losing the raccoon.
ISW is unable independently to confirm reports of the raccoon’s whereabouts or actions" https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2023
"The milblogger claimed that “traitors” abducted the raccoon and left occupied Ukraine… Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated that the raccoon had previously attacked Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo and criticized the Russians for losing the raccoon.
ISW is unable independently to confirm reports of the raccoon’s whereabouts or actions" https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2023
Institute for the Study of War
Ongoing antisemitic demonstrations in the Republic of Dagestan and elsewhere in the North Caucasus are highlighting heightened interethnic and interreligious tensions in Russia. Hundreds of demonstrators in Dagestan broke into Makhachkala airport,
Huh "the Territorial Defense Forces, reported accepting 100,000 new recruits in the first 10 days of all-out war. The mass mobilization was fueled in part by the optimistic predictions of some senior officials that the war would be won in months if not weeks"
Did people actually believe that in March 2022?! 🤨
I don't recall seeing any optimistic predictions like that at the time
https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/
"spokeswoman for Ukraine's southern command said on Tuesday that Russia was regularly dropping guided aerial bombs, sea mines or other as-yet unknown explosive devices near the [shipping] corridor"
- Wonder how close they get, unless they're lobbing something like the wing kit glide bombs seems like it might be dicey with long range SAMs
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-warplanes-drop-explosives-black-sea-shipping-lanes-2023-11-01/
- Wonder how close they get, unless they're lobbing something like the wing kit glide bombs seems like it might be dicey with long range SAMs
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-warplanes-drop-explosives-black-sea-shipping-lanes-2023-11-01/
Ukraine says Russian warplanes drop explosives on Black Sea shipping lanes
Ukraine said on Wednesday Russian warplanes had dropped "explosive objects" into the likely paths of civilian vessels in the Black Sea three times in the last 24 hours, but that its fledgling shipping corridor was still operating.
"A Russian artist [Alexandra Skochilenko] who replaced supermarket price tags with messages calling for an end to Moscow's war in Ukraine was jailed for seven years on Thursday"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-artist-who-used-supermarket-price-tags-criticise-ukraine-war-faces-2023-11-16/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-artist-who-used-supermarket-price-tags-criticise-ukraine-war-faces-2023-11-16/
Russian artist who used supermarket price tags to criticise Ukraine war faces verdict
A Russian artist who replaced supermarket price tags with messages calling for an end to Moscow's war in Ukraine is expected to learn her fate in court on Thursday with a state prosecutor asking for her to be jailed for eight years.
People seem surprised by #Ukraine finding Russian #Drones with cell connectivity, but the biggest surprise for me is that Ukraine wasn't (as far as we know) already doing it. Seems like an obvious way to improve terminal guidance, and surely HUR would have little trouble obtaining SIMs that work in Russia https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/12/01/sim-card-from-ukrainian-telecom-operator-found-inside-downed-russian-drone
SIM card from Ukrainian telecom operator found inside downed Russian drone — Meduza
A SIM card from the Ukrainian telecommunications operator Kyivstar was found inside a downed Shahed drone, which Russia used to attack Ukraine. Experts are investigating how the SIM card ended up in the drone and why it was needed, news outlet RBC Ukraine reports Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat as saying in a telethon.
RFE/RL with a deep dive into the the Redut "private military company" which turns out to be a very thin GRU front
https://www.rferl.org/a/redut-fake-russia-gru-pmc-ukraine/32708853.html
The Redut Ruse: Inside Russia’s Fake Private Mercenary Company Fighting In Ukraine
A new interactive investigation by RFE/RL reveals the inner workings of a secretive scheme by Russian military intelligence to recruit fighters for the Kremlin's war on Ukraine under the guise of a fictitious private military company.
#Ukraine has launched a database of electronic components found in Russian and Iranian weapons. Lot of these are gonna be extremely hard to stop https://sanctions.nazk.gov.ua/en/military-components/
Orlan 10 apparently uses a @[email protected] 3B https://sanctions.nazk.gov.ua/en/military-components/2580/
10 years ago, Putin started down the path to war because he couldn't tolerate Ukraine entering an association agreement with the EU
https://kyivindependent.com/european-council-agrees-to-open-accession-talks-with-ukraine-moldova/
https://kyivindependent.com/european-council-agrees-to-open-accession-talks-with-ukraine-moldova/
"Beyond the harbor walls, aircraft are the main threat to Ukrainian USVs" - Seems like it shouldn't be that hard to come up with a way to launch MANPADS or other low end IR homing SAMs from a #USV, which would be a nasty surprise to the guys trying to machine gun them from a helicopter https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/12/russia-forced-to-adapt-to-ukraines-maritime-drone-warfare-in-black-sea/
Article also notes "One recent anti-USV counter is to use a small drone flown from a patrol boat" -
Given Ukraine's USVs appear to have two-way satellite link, wonder if they've considered using them as relays to do this in the other direction?
Given Ukraine's USVs appear to have two-way satellite link, wonder if they've considered using them as relays to do this in the other direction?
Sounds like Feodosia, occupied Crimea got a Storm Shadow or two for Christmas (rumored, a Project 775 carrying ammunition) 🔥
https://nitter.net/bayraktar_1love/status/1739460184827691313#m
https://nitter.net/bayraktar_1love/status/1739460184827691313#m
Yeah, that's an ex-Ropucha (also one warehouse next to the quay has evaporated, several others are damaged, and the ship at bottom center is doing a submarine impression)
Hmm, the warehouse looks like it's actually still there https://nitter.net/kromark/status/1740081958363807852#m
Was obvious at the time the Russian occupation authorities response to the Kakhovka dam collapse was negligent at best, now AP reports compelling evidence they deliberately covered up the death toll
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-dam-collapse-kakhovka-kherson-daacdc431f42912dfb91548794f03a3c
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-dam-collapse-kakhovka-kherson-daacdc431f42912dfb91548794f03a3c
At least hundreds died in floods after Ukraine dam collapse, far more than Russia said
An AP investigation has found that Russian occupation authorities vastly and deliberately undercounted the dead in one of the most devastating chapters of the 22-month war in Ukraine — the flooding that followed the catastrophic explosion that destroyed the Kakhovka Dam in the southern Kherson region. Russia said 59 people drowned in the territory it controls. But The Associated Press determined the number is at least in the hundreds in the town of Oleshky alone. Health workers and others who were in Oleshky told the AP that Russian authorities hid the true number by taking control of the issuance of death certificates, immediately removing bodies not claimed by family, and preventing local health workers and volunteers from dealing with the dead.
"In Moscow, a court has sentenced Artyom Kamardin and Yegor Shtovba to seven and five and a half years in prison, respectively, for participating in the Mayakovsky Readings poetry event… The prosecutors’ theory is that Kamardin's poems called for not taking draft notices from representatives of military commissariats, not signing acknowledgements of receiving draft notices and not reporting to military commissariats" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-26-28-2023
Ukrainska Pravda with a deep look at #ukraine's #USV program, with one officer noting the obvious direction "Ukraine does not have the time or money to build large warships, but a swarm of drones, which will include anti-aircraft drones, kamikaze drones, drones with guns and so on"
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/01/1/7435326/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/01/1/7435326/
Included is a clip of a #USV firing some kind of small, unguided MLRS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59hbo4gZw_A
шмель | Українська правда
Ukrainska Pravda posted an English translation of their big #Ukraine #USV article
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/01/1/7435326/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/01/1/7435326/
"A second official said that the North Korean projectiles were short-range ballistic missiles that Moscow fired in late December and early January" 🤨
Presumably not Scuds or any of the other liquid fueled stuff, maybe KN-02? One of the big MLRS? Something newer like KN-23 or KN-24?
Most of those seem like they'd require significant crew training, unless DPRK is providing operators too
AP reports #DPRK missiles #Russia used to attack #Ukraine "have a range of about 550 miles", which seems to make KN-23 the closest fit
US says Russia used North Korean missiles in Ukraine
The White House says U.S. intelligence officials have determined that Russia has acquired ballistic missiles from North Korea and is seeking close-range ballistic missiles from Iran as Moscow struggles to replenish arms for its war with Ukraine. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Thursday that recently declassified intelligence found that North Korea has provided Russia with ballistic missile launchers and several ballistic missiles. Kirby said a Russia-Iran deal had not been completed. But, he said, the U.S. “is concerned that Russia's negotiations to acquire close range ballistic missiles from Iran are actively advancing.”
I think graphic (via https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1742976043307131292) from Kirby's briefing (CSPAN clip here https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1742980763887272314) shows both KN-23 and KN-24, but probably just illustrative examples. Launch site seems to be south of Voronezh, maybe in the vicinity of Korotoyak (unclear how specific graphic is supposed to be). Kirby stated one launch on Dec 30 landed in a field near Zaporizhzhia, additional launches on Jan 2 being evaluated
John Hudson (@John_Hudson) on X
On Thursday, White House spokesman John Kirby unveiled a map showing where Russia launched the North Korean missiles into Ukraine (near Zaporizhzhia). "We anticipate that Russia will use additional North Korean missiles to target Ukraine civilian infrastructure," Kirby said
Seems to be a significant military facility on the north side of Ostrogozhsk 50°52'33.0"N 39°03'20.0"E (street view shows tanks in 2021)
Apparently hosted "repair crew event in the Maters of Armored Vehicles contest" in August 2022 http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/TopStories_209189/10179391.html
IAG 2022: "Masters of Armored Vehicles" repair crew event kicks off - China Military
China Eastern Airlines flight MU5735, en route from Kunming to Guangzhou, lost contact and crashed over Wuzhou city of South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region at 14:38 on March 21. The PLA Southern Theater Command launched the emergency response mechanism at the news.
Also quite close to the Petropavlovka Russia accidentally hit on Jan 3 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-accidentally-bombs-own-village-vows-rebuild-homes-2024-01-03/
(there are several, but from street view I think it's this one https://www.google.com/maps/place/Petropavlovka,+Voronezh+Oblast,+Russia,+397814/@51.0035644,39.1879327,5884m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x41249c3e14d95049:0xdaf0ce26fbd4d0e8!8m2!3d51.0056017!4d39.1989549!16s%2Fg%2F11bbt0vjhg?entry=ttu)
HUR claims a cross border raid into Belgorod, which IMO is far more sensible than outsourcing to the neonazis in the Russian Volunteer Corps and making implausible denials https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-claims-cross-border-raid-on-russian-positions-in-belgorod-oblast/
Jeffrey Lewis makes a strong case missile debris from a Jan 2 strike on Kharkiv was North Korean, though unclear whether KN-23 or KN-24 (Hwasong-11A or 11B)
https://nitter.net/ArmsControlWonk/status/1743401762151657822#m
Two interesting things about this recent #Ukraine strike on #Crimea:
1) Claimed "ammunition warehouses" but no major secondary damage
2) Hits seem extremely precise, 2 munitions per warehouse (except one, miss/dud?). Target is ~130km from front line. Ukraine wouldn't burn 7+ Storm shadows on this, and holes seem small for that. Not consistent with ATACMS either
Has #GLSDB finally arrived?
https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-satellite-images-confirm-strike/
Could maybe be drones or some other domestic innovation, but I don't think we've seen a grid like that previously from much other than GMLRS, which is out of range
Missed this earlier: UK quietly developed and shipped a ground launch ASRAAM system to Ukraine
(someone should be working on the USV / UAV version)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-uk-bolsters-ukraines-air-defence-after-putins-latest-air-strikes
(someone should be working on the USV / UAV version)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-uk-bolsters-ukraines-air-defence-after-putins-latest-air-strikes
Report on Russian POWs in Ukraine is a quite a contrast from what people who make it out of the Russian system describe
https://spektr.press/neispravimye-reportazh-iz-lagerya/
https://spektr.press/neispravimye-reportazh-iz-lagerya/
Неисправимые. Репортаж из лагеря для военнопленных, где российские призывники, контрактники и зэки ожидают своей участи
3 января, после пятимесячного перерыва, Россия и Украина вновь обменялись пленными. Домой уехало больше, чем обычно — 230 и 248 человек. На этот раз Украина не смогла вернуть никого из защитников Мариуполя из числа бойцов полка «Азов», но впервые вернула шестерых, задержанных на оккупированных территориях, «гражданских» украинцев. Россия, по словам омбудсмена РФ Татьяны Москальковой, смогла получить 75 человек «без обмена» — в счет старых долгов за освобождение командиров «Азова».
Signs your 3-day special military operation is going according to plan: "Russian Pension Fund had sent a letter to employees of its regional offices instructing them to delete the data on welfare payments to participants of the "special military operation"… This information could reveal the scale of Russian losses and the number of military personnel who have received disability status" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-9-11-2024
#Ukraine essentially bragging they neutralized a bunch of missiles with EW, which seems like something you wouldn't brag about if you'd actually done it 🤔 https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/13/7437099/
Another good long form interview from Ukrainska Pravda, this time with Commander of the Ukrainian Navy Vice Admiral Oleksii Neizhpapa https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/01/11/7436682/
Rumors today a Russian A-50 AWACS and an IL-22M command & control plane was shot down by #Ukraine, or possibly friendly fire. Seems pretty clear something significant happened, but not exactly what
Spiritech@reedmideke That would be great if those were downed. I don't think russia has many of those radar planes.
@Spiritech Yes, reportedly ten-ish for the A-50, and not all operational at once. But on top of that, assuming it wasn't friendly fire, Russians probably won't want to fly the ones that are left so close any more