Jeff GilchristDec 17, 2023

It is estimated that currently 1 in 13 people are infected in Ontario which means there is a 55% chance at least one person in your group of 10 is infected. This jumps to a 70% chance in groups of 15, 86.5% chance with 25 people and 98% chance at that office Christmas party of 50 people.

Estimate from ( https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/ ) and calculator available at ( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qokCvvi6oRYRCKtrZuyeUmb5mt4LC9o8nKHLKoAUVAY/edit?usp=sharing ). 🧵 1/

Show threadJeff GilchristDec 17, 2023

Did you know that with transmission levels this high, 100 people singing indoors for 90 minutes with no precautions is estimated to be the same COVID health risk as each person smoking 1,080 cigarettes ( https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/ )? 2/

@Wikisteff this looks like your risk estimator?

Show threaddonkey herder, fowl friend
@jeffgilchrist @Wikisteff @ItsTrainingCatsAndDogs
What? This is a terrible, nonsensical analogy. Smoking cigarettes doesn’t cause covid?
Dec 18, 2023 at 4:13pmWeb
Show threadtrendlessDec 18, 2023
@donkeyherder I̵t̵'̵s̵ {*edit: I read it as} a comparison of the amount of systemic damage sustained from either one scv2 infection or smoking a thousand cigarettes.
Show threaddonkey herder, fowl friendDec 18, 2023
@trendless but that’s still apples to oranges! The way it’s written, it’s comparing the *risk* of being in this particular hypothetical room versus the average *result* of smoking 1k cigarettes. It’s not risk vs risk?!
Show threadSteffen ChristensenDec 18, 2023

@donkeyherder @trendless Hmmm... cigarette increases the risk of fatal cancer and COPD, as well as increasing the risk of disability largely from pneumonia and COPD.
COVID increases the risk of morbidity, largely from fatiguing durable long COVID, but with contributions from brain fog and cardiovascular sequelae, as well as a small risk of hospitalization and death.

These are two risks of bad things. They should be comparable through disability-adjusted life years.