Jeff GilchristDec 17, 2023

It is estimated that currently 1 in 13 people are infected in Ontario which means there is a 55% chance at least one person in your group of 10 is infected. This jumps to a 70% chance in groups of 15, 86.5% chance with 25 people and 98% chance at that office Christmas party of 50 people.

Estimate from ( https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/ ) and calculator available at ( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qokCvvi6oRYRCKtrZuyeUmb5mt4LC9o8nKHLKoAUVAY/edit?usp=sharing ). 🧵 1/

Show threadJeff Gilchrist

Did you know that with transmission levels this high, 100 people singing indoors for 90 minutes with no precautions is estimated to be the same COVID health risk as each person smoking 1,080 cigarettes ( https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/ )? 2/

@Wikisteff this looks like your risk estimator?

Dec 17, 2023 at 11:17pmWeb
Show threadJeff GilchristDec 17, 2023

With almost record levels of transmission going on, please be extra careful during the holidays. Statistics Canada just released their latest report on Long COVID and found by people's 3rd COVID infection, 38% reported Long COVID symptoms ( https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2023001/article/00015-eng.htm ).

"Almost half of those still experiencing symptoms reported they have not seen any improvement in symptoms over time." 3/

Experiences of Canadians with long-term symptoms following COVID-19

This study uses data from the Canadian COVID-19 Antibody and Health Survey to describe the current COVID-19 landscape, including infection, reinfection, and acute and long-term symptoms. This study also examines how peoples’ experiences with the virus have evolved in the context of growing immunity, emerging variants, new treatments, and relaxation of public health measures.

Show threadJeff GilchristDec 17, 2023
"Even mild cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection are at risk of becoming long covid, and these results suggest the threat increases with multiple infections." -
https://twitter.com/ChiefSciCan/status/1733865086748414173
Dr. Mona Nemer (@ChiefSciCan) on X

Even mild cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection are at risk of becoming long covid, and these results suggest the threat increases with multiple infections. (1/3) https://t.co/DnVpyaSP3M

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadSteffen ChristensenDec 18, 2023
@jeffgilchrist Yeah, that's my math, amigo.
COVID rates are really high right now.
Show threadSteffen ChristensenDec 18, 2023
@jeffgilchrist Although I bet those 1000 cigarettes are for the families of each person attending. Individual risks may be somewhat lower. I will double check, as words matter.
Show thread50sFarmGirl 🇨🇦Dec 18, 2023
@jeffgilchrist @Wikisteff Just went to a big, indoor light display. I was the ONLY person there with a mask. So sad!
Show threadSteffen ChristensenDec 18, 2023
@50sFarmGirl @jeffgilchrist 😢✌️
Show threaddonkey herder, fowl friendDec 18, 2023
@jeffgilchrist @Wikisteff @ItsTrainingCatsAndDogs
What? This is a terrible, nonsensical analogy. Smoking cigarettes doesn’t cause covid?
Show threadtrendlessDec 18, 2023
@donkeyherder I̵t̵'̵s̵ {*edit: I read it as} a comparison of the amount of systemic damage sustained from either one scv2 infection or smoking a thousand cigarettes.
Show threaddonkey herder, fowl friendDec 18, 2023
@trendless but that’s still apples to oranges! The way it’s written, it’s comparing the *risk* of being in this particular hypothetical room versus the average *result* of smoking 1k cigarettes. It’s not risk vs risk?!
Show threadSteffen ChristensenDec 18, 2023

@donkeyherder @trendless Hmmm... cigarette increases the risk of fatal cancer and COPD, as well as increasing the risk of disability largely from pneumonia and COPD.
COVID increases the risk of morbidity, largely from fatiguing durable long COVID, but with contributions from brain fog and cardiovascular sequelae, as well as a small risk of hospitalization and death.

These are two risks of bad things. They should be comparable through disability-adjusted life years.