It was obvious from the outset that predictive policing was a scam (not to mention a vehicle for accelerating overpolicing), but it's really valuable to have this careful reporting of just bad it is:

https://themarkup.org/prediction-bias/2023/10/02/predictive-policing-software-terrible-at-predicting-crimes

Predictive Policing Software Terrible At Predicting Crimes โ€“ The Markup

A software company sold a New Jersey police department an algorithm that was right less than 1% of the time

@emilymbender The algorithms for predictive policing were always fed by crime and arrest data generated fromโ€ฆsurveillance and enforcement primarily targeted at poor and/or non-white people! So guess what those algorithms are going to tell cops to do more of? Bias in, bias out.

@MisuseCase

As I said in the post you are directly responding to: "It was obvious from the outset that predictive policing was a scam (not to mention a vehicle for accelerating overpolicing)"

This site remains 'splainy AF.

@emilymbender First time I heard about this weeks back, I thought โ€œIโ€™ve seen enough Minority Report to know where this is headed.โ€
New police intelligence tool speedily sending information on risk to frontline officers

Police are using powerful new AI to help them assess the risk posed by offenders when officers are called out to emergencies, sparked by the shooting murder of an unarmed constable.

RNZ
@emilymbender I'm guessing that the underlying methodology was based on the seismological approach in https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2011.ap09546 . If so, has there been a proper analysis of why this isn't appropriate? (1) biased data (mentioned in comments), (2) small numbers don't allow averages to help, (3) something else?
@emilymbender I've just seen _Predpol_ mentioned in Granville & Granville's _Prime Suspects_ (p.216).

@emilymbender

I would say it's so bad those that sell it should be charged with fraud.