It occurred to me today that the social value of the open-source work I do in my free time has probably been an order of magnitude more useful to the world than everything I've ever done as a paid employee. Needing to seek a wage almost certainly makes me a less productive member of society than I would otherwise be.

@jsbarretto

a perfect case in point for #UBI (Universal Basic income)

@HistoPol @jsbarretto that and universal basic services

@tshepang
I would need to give this idea some more thought.

You see, if a service does not cost anything at all, there tends to be waste and abuse.

If everyone is given a basic income to cover their (basic) needs, this would solve that problem too, don't you think?

In any event, public goods should be held by a (non-corrupt) state and not by private citizens or corporations (e.g. water rights).

@jsbarretto

@HistoPol @jsbarretto institutions managing such services could be corrupt indeed, but there are solutions to that, like reducing movement of money (where, for example, governments would not contract private companies to do the work)

@tshepang @jsbarretto

(1/n)

Very interesting. You thought of corruption by administrators (and rightly so, see my posts, e.g., about NestlΓ© and water-rights abuses, e.g., in the US and elsewhere.)
I thought more of abuse by citizens. People tend to value services that are free of charge low.

Regarding the showcase of #Scandinavian countries, they cannot be the benchmark. I'm no #anthropologist but I'd suspect that the following factors influence this result:

1) relatively...

@tshepang @jsbarretto

(2/n)

small, and until recently, a fairly
homogeneous population.

2) Rich and highly educated populations.

3) Centuries of common enterprise (e.g. #Viking raids.) Mist other countries lack such characteristics.

Very different: Native American tribes.

There might be other factors.

People, generally, tend to be ill-disciplined in huge crowds where individual stakeholdership and malfeasance don't lead to ostracism, as in ancient times. (My hypothesis)

Therefore,...

@tshepang @jsbarretto

(3/3)

...even public goods must have a monetary, and not just an intrinsic value. This can be offset by #UBI.

It's a zero-sum game, really, but leads to significantly different results, IMHO.

//

@HistoPol
To augment this thought, making people pay for stuff tends towards making apparent how important that stuff is. If you give a UBI and then charge park admissions for example you could find out how much people prefer the beach park to the garden park... Or whatever. When you provide a variety of free services there isn't a way for the public to vote "a lot more of this and less of that"
@tshepang @jsbarretto
@dlakelan @HistoPol @jsbarretto you could simply witness what people prefer, no need for money exchange

@tshepang @HistoPol @jsbarretto

You can't witness the degree of preference though. Suppose you have two beaches, one has better surfing. On any given day 1000 people go to both beaches. Both beaches are "equally good" right? What if I told you that the 1000 surfers would pay $40 to park there, but the 1000 other beach goers would only pay $5. It's not enough to see how many people go where to give you good information about how to allocate resources.

@dlakelan @HistoPol @jsbarretto to help clarify, what information does this give (about where to allocate more resources)

@tshepang @HistoPol @jsbarretto

For example it might tell you to allocate resources to a special bus that goes to the surfing beach that can take surfboards, where you can board the bus a few miles away in some kind of parking structure, enabling more people to surf the beach without requiring us to build parking next to the beach. Just as an example.

@dlakelan @HistoPol @jsbarretto it's not clear to me why having both parks free stops you from getting information on what to do where

@tshepang @HistoPol @jsbarretto

In general there are other ways you can gain information, but money transactions makes for a single comparable measuring stick between any goods and services, do you enhance the beach, or have more concerts in the park, or have more bus transport or plant more fish in lakes or provide more educational opportunities for kids or ... having a way to compare everything (price) is vastly superior to a hodgepodge of surveys and whatnot.

@tshepang @HistoPol @jsbarretto

The problem is we have made money be a thing you only get for working for wages etc. Suppose we start charging reasonable prices for all sorts of public goods, the linux kernel, beach access, census data... whatever. But then on the other hand, everyone gets an equal UBI of maybe $40000/yr which is more or less say twice the average cost of consuming all the public goods we started charging for. So you can buy a typical quantity of the public goods, plus $20k

@tshepang @HistoPol @jsbarretto

The money charged for the public goods can go to public maintenance, and whatever isn't used there, can be paid out again by the govt as part of paying the UBI. you're recycling money, using it as an information-carrier. That's how it's supposed to work, to direct resources where they're needed. If you started charging for public goods you'd triple or quadruple the GDP, but to keep the consumption constant you'd need a lot more money circulation... ie the UBI

@dlakelan @HistoPol @jsbarretto so, in this system, does anyone make more than $40k/year
@tshepang
Of course, as mentioned $40k is just an example, thought needs to go into UBI sizing, but money is still usable in the same way so you can sell labor for wages, charge interest, invest in stocks, build rental housing etc. The point of UBI is to make sure that everyone has a minimum of some amount of income. It's probably best to think of it as a percentage of GDP/capita. Let's say 10-20%
@HistoPol @jsbarretto
@dlakelan
it would need to be adjusted per individual then, because people have different needs... someone would spend too much on medical needs, and a more lucky person has more to spend on leisure
@HistoPol @jsbarretto
@dlakelan
why I favor services is it equalizes those things that should be regarded human rights, like housing, health, and education, such that whatever little is offered by UBI could then go to less essential (but still important) things like leisure and art
@HistoPol @jsbarretto
@tshepang
There are all sorts of discussions to be had about services vs UBI. One of the biggest issues with free services is it makes a strong value judgement about what is important. For example, if a person likes living somewhat cramped in small square footage housing but saving up money to invest in starting a hair salon... Nope, you get one size fits all housing allotment. UBI lets people allocate resources according to their preferences.
@HistoPol @jsbarretto
@tshepang
Just as a matter of what has been observed, in for example the Cherokee Indian examples people use their allotment in different ways according to their different needs and that flexibility is really important. Also they own that money whether they spend it or not. With services if you don't consume it you don't benefit. Particularly for the poorest that's a bad situation. https://www.wired.com/story/free-money-the-surprising-effects-of-a-basic-income-supplied-by-government/
@HistoPol @jsbarretto
@tshepang
Most likely there are some services where it's easier to just provide it than deal with the overhead of charging for it. How are you going to charge to sit in a community park? Erecting fences and a pay gate ruins the experience. But for something like a library it makes sense to charge a couple dollars a week to hold a book, using the funds to replace damaged volumes and maintain the building etc.
@HistoPol @jsbarretto
@tshepang
Charging for library books without UBI is problematic, poor people can't use it, so it becomes services for the rich. But with UBI, noone is truly poor. UBI has other important effects. Income inequality is a major driver of violent crime (pretty much THE biggest factor). UBI automatically reduces income inequality. I expect dramatic reductions in crime. Services don't have the same effect. You can't save your way out of debt by not consuming library books.
@HistoPol @jsbarretto

@dlakelan

I agree with your train of thought, except for the library. They have always been free, and I did not see people reading too many books.

#UBI doesn't mean everybody's rich and can afford everything.
Trade-off have you be made, e.g. for sick people, as they have a disproportionate share of healthcare costs.

These above-average expenditures should never crowd out literature.
Libraries should remain free for all residents.

@tshepang @jsbarretto

@dlakelan

...correct, and that could lead to overconsumption for some people, as they would not get anything else instead.

@tshepang @jsbarretto

@dlakelan
note that am in favor of UBI, and UBS (universal basic services) to me is something that would greatly help make it more effective by avoiding issues with increased incomes, like corruption and inflation (as one example, high income countries tend to have higher housing costs)
@HistoPol @jsbarretto
@tshepang
I think there is plenty of meaningful discussion to have over what should be free services and what should be priced yet affordable due to UBI. In general a free service candidate is something like firefighting, police, and emergency medical. Something where few need it and it's expensive when you do. There's an insurance like quality.
@HistoPol @jsbarretto

@dlakelan
I need to ask:
Have you been doing professional research in the #UBI / #UBS field?

@tshepang @jsbarretto

@HistoPol
I have not. I did some work on Bayesian models for measuring poverty back in 2017 and had some interesting results but it didn't wind up panning out.

I have a dream of starting a nonprofit utilizing agent based modeling to address large scale social and technical issues, but do not have a clear path towards making that happen.
@tshepang @jsbarretto

@dlakelan
Sounds like a thrilling idea.

Forgive my ignorance, what are #BayesianModels?

@tshepang @jsbarretto

@HistoPol
Any model where you specify a mathematical form, with unknown free parameters and then you utilize probability as a measure of plausibility (rather than frequency of occurrence) to find which parameters "work best" is a Bayesian model. So in my poverty model the goal was to estimate a distribution across households in each locality of the ratio of income to a cost of living measure.
@tshepang @jsbarretto

@tshepang
The corruption and inflation questions are good questions though. IMHO a transition to UBI should proceed through a gradual process. For example if we give out 10% of GDP/capita, and then slowly transition more services to payed consumption, GDP would grow and therefore UBI would grow.

Corruption needs a different solution entirely. There are plenty of services that serve the corrupt not the supposed targets. Bridges to nowhere etc.
@HistoPol @jsbarretto

@dlakelan
my thinking is that reducing opportunities for money movement automatically reduces corruption (though other forms of currency could be used, like exchange of favors, which is a separate problem)
@HistoPol @jsbarretto

@tshepang @HistoPol @jsbarretto

That's an interesting theory, and I guess not without some merit. A big part of corruption is siphoning off funds by moving them into the pockets of the corrupt. But money movement also does good things, and I think they're kind of "invisible". Why when we go to the grocery is there food there to eat? Because that moves money from hungry people into grocer's pockets. Stop allowing grocers to sell food for money, and the population will starve.

@dlakelan
I can imagine a population could be fed without such grocers being involved, and this does not imply not tracking what goods have what levels of demand
@HistoPol @jsbarretto

@tshepang @HistoPol @jsbarretto

It may in theory be possible, but the history of the world says that market economies work well for things like food, and that some kind of centralized economy without utilizing the information from price and money exchange works poorly for such things as in USSR. When we talk about a demand, we need to specify a price. In some sense there is "infinite" demand for many zero price things. I'd eat a lot more sushi if it cost $0.

@dlakelan
special demands should not invalidate more basic ones, and historical examples of failure should not invalidate potential future attempts, because approaches could be different
@HistoPol @jsbarretto

@tshepang
I agree, but so far, no-one has conceptualized a system that might actually work on a large scale* for human beings, at least not that I'm aware of

*i.e. not just on a community or municipal level

@dlakelan @jsbarretto

@dlakelan

(1/2)

aka the factual "Communism" in the former Soviet Union, for instance.

Also, this is what I meant that it will not work when groups become to big.

Basically, it could be argued that a lot of the indigenous tribes of the Americas practiced a form of (working) Communism (except for the peoples with kingdoms, in particular Middle America and Peru/Bolivia.)

People are, in essence, egotistic, and no amount of governance...

@tshepang @jsbarretto

@dlakelan (2/2)

will ever change that, though there is, of course, an altruistic streak as well.

@tshepang

(1/2)
That is a good thought.--As you state yourself, though, money was invented after barter trade. And none-monetary IOU's have been quite customary in many cultures.--Not saying that it is corruption, but just think of the "Legacy" anomaly at US Ivy League colleges, for instance.

People are very inventive.

Also, as seen with the price-cap discussion in many European countries during the current #EnergyWars, even...

@dlakelan @jsbarretto

@tshepang

(2/2)

..."rich" G20 countries cannot afford to provide unlimited price caps, so there is always room for fraud, if e.g. a company requires a lot more.

So, in reality, I think reducing the money in circulation (not even abolishing it) by providing UBS would maybe only momentarily reduce the corruption problem. People are very creative.

@dlakelan @jsbarretto

@HistoPol
anything that reduces harm, whether or not temporary, is welcome by me... future harms could be handled as they happen, assuming failure of preemption
@dlakelan @jsbarretto

@tshepang
I disagree with that statement.
A lot of resources will be lost with trial and error, trying to find a balance.
If, in the end (I see 9mths to 3 yrs) everything re/ corruption is "back to normal," it is not worth it, I think.

@dlakelan @jsbarretto

@HistoPol
you would have learned what worked and what didn't, because else you are left guessing (because the real world is the best testing ground for ideas)
@dlakelan @jsbarretto
@tshepang
Although the real world is the best testing grounds, I do think we proceed more quickly to a solution when the policies are relatively simple (so have few possibilities for special cases) and we have some theory that has guided us successfully in the past. I'm not a huge fan of economics as practiced today but I do think market economies when free from special treatment for the rich are pretty good.
@HistoPol @jsbarretto
@tshepang
My idea for using agent based models was guided by the idea we could gain more realistic predictive ability through investigating different rule systems.
@HistoPol @jsbarretto

@dlakelan

I used to think that way, too.
Until I found out what has really happened during the past 40-50 years.
And I am not only talking about the #GinnyCoefficient (there was an excellent pod of #TheEconomist on this topic some months ago) and the betrayal of the global population by #BigOil, or the neocolonial practices of such Robber-Barron companies like #NestlΓ©.

(all hashtags are recurrent subjects in my posts)

@tshepang @jsbarretto

@HistoPol @tshepang @jsbarretto

Well, I do think most of those things you decry which I also decry are examples of "special cases" created by the rich by buying government power. This is all too common though. Something needs to change.

@dlakelan

(1/2)

It is not just that, alas, my post is in Germany (which I will put, regardless, afterwards,) here is a post in English about a NTY article about the unprecedented power Musk has amassed in satellite internet communications.

He has become a "transnational being."

https://mastodon.social/@wendysiegelman/110798502577035485

Please also check out my posts on #TESCREAL that I provided for Tshepang.

Things are some lightyears worse than you probably...

@tshepang @jsbarretto

@dlakelan @tshepang @jsbarretto

(2/2)

...think, so lets postpone discussion on this.

I need to call it a day, as I have to start my day early, I will check back tomorrow.
Good night.

@dlakelan @tshepang @jsbarretto

Final thought for 2nite regarding our discussion about UBS and housing - the markets have been failing time and again around the globe, e.g. in Germany, the US presently and soon also in Canada:

https://botsin.space/@cbcworld/110924205330503654

CBC World News (@[email protected])

Canada's national housing agency has warned that millions of homes must be built within less than a decade to balance the housing market, but even it seems doubtful that its own target is achievable. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-government-housing-construction-challenges-1.6941854

botsin.space
@HistoPol
I doubt anyone who has been involved in building housing projects would call those conditions "markets" it's more about which city council members to bribe or whatever. Homeowners consistently vote to exclude others by preventing housing construction etc. It's a complicated problem, usually when you see major failures like this it's indirect political class warfare that is responsible.
@tshepang @jsbarretto
@HistoPol
I assume by Ivy League thing, you mean richer people have better chances of being accepted, which itself offers bigger chances of (monetary) success after graduation
@dlakelan @jsbarretto

@tshepang
No, not quite, it means that even poorer, say administrative staff kids, get preferential treatment. They "inherit" an enrollment.
It perpetuates a ruling cast and does not allocate the spaces to the most gifted students with the highest pontential ROI for society.
Therefore, inherently unfair.

@dlakelan @jsbarretto

@HistoPol
ah, in the current world, the less wealthy have the world set up against their success, so I would rather have them get preferential acceptance in fancy institutions, but more importantly, would rather other institutions close the gap of excellence (because prestige is a form of discrimination)
@dlakelan @jsbarretto

@tshepang

Yes, agreed. However, that raises the specter of "ideological incest," as I would call it, and here we are at a big other topic, #TESCREAL (I covered that yesterday in a repeat of some of my threads.)
I threatends the complete world order we have presently, and no, not in the way you would like it to move, but in to a complete #oligarchy. Fact.

@dlakelan @jsbarretto

@HistoPol
would you able to summarize this, as am not familiar with these terms (or alternatively link to your post)

@tshepang

It is a really huge issue, but I did put some summary posts yesterday.

Let me check for you.

@tshepang

I talk about #TESCREAL in this convo, which gives important sources, too:

https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110565890923413442

Furthermore, regarding our starting point, US colleges, this article by insider and Google victim Timnit Gebru talks about the issue:

https://dair-community.social/@timnitGebru/110662391761220428

And then, the #TESCREAL handle has become quite active here in recent weeks.

WARNING: extensive and intensive subject, not for bedside reading ;)

Timnit Gebru (she/her) (@[email protected])

Another great article by @[email protected] who is one of the few journalists who knows whats really going on with "AI safety." The amount of money the TESCREAL billionaires are putting into converting this field into a doomsday cult is ridiculous. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/07/05/ai-apocalypse-college-students/

Distributed AI Research Community
@HistoPol
what was meant by ideological incest

@tshepang

If you listen to the interview, @timnitGebru makes it very clear that except for one black swan, all tech billionaires in #SiliconValley are (chiefly white) males that (mostly?--don't recall) belief in #TESCREAL.
#SciFi, in particular certain novels, that used to be nerd stuff, has become main stream.
These two threads emanate from the influential tech billionaires and VC funds. They replicate through funding other white males, indoctrinated by this (on the one hand) fascist thought.

Tshepang Mbambo (@[email protected])

@[email protected] ah, in the current world, the less wealthy have the world set up against their success, so I would rather have them get preferential acceptance in fancy institutions, but more importantly, would rather other institutions close the gap of excellence (because prestige is a form of discrimination) @[email protected] @[email protected]

Hachyderm.io
@HistoPol
if so, that raises another topic (of hoarding wealth), but having UBI (and UBS) would be a great start, such that I would pick anyone of the 2 than none of them
@dlakelan @jsbarretto

@dlakelan

It would really be interesting to have a rather complete chart of (possible*) public services differentiated by "insurance-like quality" vs. "should be priced" or something.

*some services might only make sense for some countries, e.g. heating in the tropics, not sensible, but essential in northern countries. Air condition, contrary example.

@tshepang @jsbarretto