@nixCraft Really depends, if orgs are already paying for support for RHEL, I don't think so. However, for projects that rely on RHEL but doesn't require Red Hat support, ya, I think there's a chance that they would hop on to a RHEL compatible distro.
That being said, it really depends on why the org needs a RHEL-based distro, if there's no need for RHEL, there are other options, there are orgs who have already moved on to Debian and/or Ubuntu as well.
@deltatux@nixCraft Where they're most likely to see losses are in their RHUI-using customers (AWS, Azure, GCP). Those customers haven't invested in things like Satellite and other "ecosystem" products. It's easier for them to walk away, especially if there's offerings that their existing automation can plug-n-play with and if there's a paid tier available for the critical subset of their deployments that warrant it.