mekka okereke Jul 15, 2023

The fastest growing app will have the worst retention rates.

Imagine a world where all users are the same, regardless of social network. Imagine that if 1000 users start using a social app on day 1, that only:
* 900 of them will be using it on day 2
* 800 of them on day 7
* 600 of them on day 30
* 500 of them on day 365

Now imagine if network A hasn't grown in 5 years, but has 100MM users. Network B is doubling every 2 days, and is currently at 100MM users.

Which will have worse retention?

Laura SJul 16, 2023
Show threadmekka okereke 

I keep seeing journalists / analysts missing this insight. It's framed as "Everyone is leaving Mastodon!" Or "Threads is already dying!" Neither is necessarily true.

This is a natural phenomena that always happens with rapidly growing apps and networks.

A better way to think of it is "Of every 1000 users who sign up, only 1000/N of them will be here in a year, so discount the growth rate."

It's scary to know what N is. And it changes over time. And it can change rapidly.

Jul 15, 2023 at 10:09pmWeb
Show threadBadscrewJul 15, 2023
@mekkaokereke it's not journalists / analysts but "journalists" / "analysts"
Show threadJohn [He, Him, His] 🌈👨🏼‍🔬🧬🧫🧪💻Jul 15, 2023
@mekkaokereke I would add that after the era of big SM, the public looks for exponential growth without the context that that was part of the problem! As the biggies fall it may take time as we all spread out looking for better.
Show threadTim ChambersJul 15, 2023
@mekkaokereke Average churn rate on new users of social apps average 30%-40% across the board, so I’ll be looking to see if their drop off is less or more than that..
Show threadGavin Lux EnjoyerJul 15, 2023
@mekkaokereke a lot of people use social media sporadically. I’ll sometimes go month without using an app and then come back. It’s hard to pin down.
Show threadSharon MachlisJul 16, 2023
@mekkaokereke It's no accident that once people sign up for Threads, they can’t leave without also deleting their Instagram accounts. That’s an obvious attempt to inflate user numbers. Anyone who reports Threads user data without mentioning this is contributing to a well-laid trap.
Pre-IPO, Facebook reported counting as “active” anyone whose app was polling FB in background, *whether or not users were opening the app*. Is Threads also doing this? Has anyone asked?
Show threadKevin Teljeur ❄️Jul 16, 2023
@smach @mekkaokereke @DToher I think it’s because they took a technical shortcut, not a deliberate trap. I don’t excuse it, but I mean that it’s just Instagram with text. It’s the same user account with different features. That’s why they don’t want to risk launching in the EU. I agree that it’s bad, but it’s a side-effect of speed-running starting a new app. They’ve ‘cheated’ to ramp numbers quickly.
Show threadKevin Teljeur ❄️Jul 16, 2023
@smach @mekkaokereke @DToher (It’s a different bad thing to, for example, Bluesky which has ramped up in spite of not having the basic safety infrastructure of a modern social media network, and I think it’s betting odds that with two active developers that it’s missing a whole pile of critical security infrastructure too)