In the mid-2000s, the blogosphere was vibrant, open, and had massive potential but lacked discoverability, easy networking, and ease of use. Facebook came along, supplied those things, privatized a huge chunk of that potential, and in just a few years, more or less *became* the blogosphere.

Today, the fediverse is vibrant, open, and has massive potential but lacks discoverability, easy networking, and ease of use. With Threads, can FB pull the same trick? I wouldn't bet against them trying.

Humans hate friction. If Threads can offer fediverse search, quote-posting (they already do), easy discoverability of friends (got this part mostly done), multiple timelines (a la Bluesky), ditch the weird Masto reply vibe, etc., people will use it over other apps/instances. And then make it easier to stay than to switch to something else. It'll be interesting to see if FB plays the long game and doesn’t overload Threads with ads too quickly (major friction for many).
My biggest question is: why would FB bother with the fediverse at all? They've got a huge potential user pool already and if they offer a Twitter-like experience that has features that people want, isn't erratic, and is easy, many people will use it. Is adding access to the relatively small %age of folks who won't switch (and might defed. Threads anyway) worth the effort?
@jkottke I think it’s an idea born out of the last few months of uncertainty, more than some 4D chess political play: people have been jumping to Mastodon and Bluesky which both offer (or promise) federation and portability. Maybe it felt like a must-have when they outlined and proposed Threads. Now, after a big launch, maybe they’re second guessing? I hope they follow through with it though, just to see what it’s like for a huge social media service to actually try interoperability for once.