Mastodawn

Hynek Schlawack

Threads hot takes:

- given it’s jankiness & current size, absolutely nobody will care about Bsky in 6 months.
- if we get federation with Threads (big if), it’s the best thing we can hope for social network-wise. Being able to follow normies on our terms!? Yes, please!? It might actually bring users in that hate Threads’ interface.
- Threads has apparently ~5x users after being live for 1 day & Mastodon active users are languishing at best: https://mastodon-analytics.com/ This isn’t even a competition.

Mastodon Analytics

How many users, active users, servers are on Mastodon?

Mastodon Analytics

Nafiul Islam Jul 6, 2023

@hynek @ambv I think the second point will make or break mastodon. I just don’t see a lot of non tech people on Mastodon as the moment, and threads offer a good alternative to Twitter.

zsol Jul 6, 2023

@hynek imo the big if is not if we will get federation for Threads. The question is if it will stay federated for the long run

Hynek Schlawack Jul 6, 2023

@zsol my understanding is that federation takes some regulation heat off their backs, so I suspect they’ll keep federating but will be obnoxious about it. Like only offering certain features thru federation. Maybe media has to be clicked thru to see it etc

Florimond Manca (en)Jul 7, 2023

@hynek @zsol I’m very concerned about an Embrace extend extinguish pathway.

Like, they federate first, then add some (perhaps very neat) functionality that normies will hop onto. Then boom, us techies can’t interact with normies anymore until Mastodon implements that functionality, until when we get told « but why aren’t you on Threads ».

The entity with the biggest network would have the power to shape the usage as they please. i don’t see how Meta can’t win that fight.

zsol Jul 7, 2023

@florimond @hynek few questions: how many normies are using mastodon now? Why does federation matter (if meta wants to add a killer feature, wouldn't people flock over anyway?)? Do you think the ~1 million active mastodon users matter this much to Meta?

Hynek Schlawack Jul 7, 2023

@florimond @zsol as others have pointed out: no popular protocol has ever been extinguished (xmpp doesn’t count because it was too niche & nobody uses instant messengers anymore when we have proper ones). extinguishing would require everyone from mastodon to switch to threads, otherwise we just have the same situation as before.

Florimond Manca (en)Jul 7, 2023

@hynek @zsol Right!

I think the idea that the main stake is Meta gaining momentum before it federates is quite convincing.

But given the fast lift off already, and the need for various ppl (journalists etc) to get back a working “world town square” as quick as possible, what incentive would Meta still have to federate?

(The answer might be in the “regulation heat off their back” bit but I haven’t followed the regulatory / EU law story.)

Hynek Schlawack Jul 7, 2023

@florimond @zsol I expect Meta to make it obnoxious (~Twitter with 3rd party clients), but the bigger risk for the fediverse is that ppl jump ship before Meta federates. Fortunately the EU is protecting us. 🤪

zsol Jul 7, 2023

@hynek @florimond FWIW I also don't get this EU law angle. Threads is essentially the same as IG. What rules prevent EU people from using Threads that don't apply to IG?

Hynek Schlawack Jul 7, 2023

@zsol @florimond who even knows, they didn’t ask the DPC for a ruling. for all we know they only did it to make ppl mad at the EU being dicks to Meta

Florimond Manca (en)Jul 7, 2023

@hynek @zsol Hmm. Arguably there's other aspects to it, too.

Eg the LGBTQIA+ community, and trans people in particular, have legitimate reasons to be concerned about federating with a huge virtual instance that would bring Twitter-like (trans-hateful) content en masse to Mastodon. [0]

Is there a way for this flood not to happen except from instances blocking the Threads instance? Then bye bye "talking to normies" again.

[0]: https://octodon.social/@siege/110668072301678301

CJ Bellwether (@[email protected])

Content warning: Meta Threads Trans Safety

the Octodon

Florimond Manca (en)Jul 7, 2023

@hynek @zsol You might have stumbled upon this post, too, a few weeks back? https://ploum.net/2023-06-23-how-to-kill-decentralised-networks.html

How to Kill a Decentralised Network (such as the Fediverse)

How to Kill a Decentralised Network (such as the Fediverse) par Ploum - Lionel Dricot.

Hynek Schlawack Jul 7, 2023

@florimond @zsol that article is based on a false premise. It wasn’t Google (or Facebook) who killed XMPP. It was WhatsApp.

Hynek Schlawack Jul 7, 2023

@florimond @zsol well you can’t have it both ways. but every user can block Threads for themselves and never see anything from there or be seen there.

Florimond Manca (en)Jul 7, 2023

@hynek @zsol Fair. But wouldn’t that mean only people not targeted as a group by hate speech and online harassment would get to interact with their normies hosted by Threads, which you’d definitely not want to block?

Tin Tvrtković Jul 6, 2023

@hynek I was gonna ask, is federation happening and when? How do I keep myself in the loop?

I'm in favor of federation FWIW

Jeff Triplett Jul 6, 2023

@hynek Instagram has over 1.4 billion active users a month that seem to mostly like the platform. Last I saw, Twitter had maybe 400 to 500 million but dropping active users.

Threads is likely to be bigger than Twitter by the end of the year. 🍿

Hynek Schlawack Jul 6, 2023

@webology wasn’t it more like 100 million? and barely anyone is left from my bubbles given my TL

Jeff Triplett Jul 6, 2023

@hynek Looks like I was off but in the other direction and it's over 2 billion active users a month as of last October. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-26/meta-s-instagram-users-reach-2-billion-closing-in-on-facebook

I believe it. My friends and family who don't post anywhere else live on that website.

So Threads has a lot of potential in eclipsing Twitter sooner than most people think if it takes for Instagram users alone.

Meta’s Instagram Users Reach 2 Billion, Closing In on Facebook (META)

Bloomberg

Jeff Triplett Jul 7, 2023

@hynek called it but I didn't expect 70 million signups in 24 hours. Wow. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/07/metas-twitter-rival-threads-surpasses-50-million-signups-screenshots.html

Igolkotek Jul 7, 2023

@webology @hynek

Why?
Twitter-FB-Insta users are different.
Mastodon and Threads target the same users as Twitter.
So threads users must prefer it to the rest.
Sure, Musk makes phenomenal efforts to kill Twitter, but I'm not sure that the former Twitter users would prefer threads.
The 1st huge wage is just an interest. A user compares the environments, it's normal. But who will finally gain?..

Jeff Triplett Jul 7, 2023

@igolkotek @hynek I would wager Meta gains.

They are different, and Instagram is huge. So 25% to 35% of active (or previously active) Instagram Users taking to Threads makes them immediately bigger.

Plus, threads is zero friction to activating, unlike everything else that wants an approval process. I have no plans to use it, but activated my account to see what it was about.

Hynek Schlawack Jul 7, 2023

@igolkotek @webology Twitter users who like celebs, gossip, and the algorithmic timeline (not me, but the vast majority) are gonna LOVE threads. It’s the only text-centric alternative to Twitter for THEM. BSky could’ve been it, but they can’t even scale their 5 active users right now. If we’re _really_ lucky, the nerd/normie bifurcation will be nullified by them federating. Not holding my breath, but a year ago I wouldn’t have dared to dream of that.

Igolkotek Jul 8, 2023

@hynek @webology

And here we have the news:
https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/7/23787334/instagram-threads-news-politics-adam-mosseri-meta-facebook

So #Threads as Instagram originated, are a glamour Twitter majorly..
So it's major auditory could be the same Instagram.. maybe )

Threads isn’t for news and politics, says Instagram’s boss

Instagram boss Adam Mosseri has taken a stance on news and politics in Threads. In a conversation with Alex Heath, Mosseri says those topics “aren’t worth the scrutiny, negativity (let’s be honest), or integrity risks.”

The Verge