Hynek SchlawackJul 6, 2023

Threads hot takes:

- given it’s jankiness & current size, absolutely nobody will care about Bsky in 6 months.
- if we get federation with Threads (big if), it’s the best thing we can hope for social network-wise. Being able to follow normies on our terms!? Yes, please!? It might actually bring users in that hate Threads’ interface.
- Threads has apparently ~5x users after being live for 1 day & Mastodon active users are languishing at best: https://mastodon-analytics.com/ This isn’t even a competition.

Mastodon Analytics

How many users, active users, servers are on Mastodon?

Mastodon Analytics
Show threadzsolJul 6, 2023
@hynek imo the big if is not if we will get federation for Threads. The question is if it will stay federated for the long run
Show threadHynek SchlawackJul 6, 2023
@zsol my understanding is that federation takes some regulation heat off their backs, so I suspect they’ll keep federating but will be obnoxious about it. Like only offering certain features thru federation. Maybe media has to be clicked thru to see it etc
Show threadFlorimond Manca (en)Jul 7, 2023

@hynek @zsol I’m very concerned about an Embrace extend extinguish pathway.

Like, they federate first, then add some (perhaps very neat) functionality that normies will hop onto. Then boom, us techies can’t interact with normies anymore until Mastodon implements that functionality, until when we get told « but why aren’t you on Threads ».

The entity with the biggest network would have the power to shape the usage as they please. i don’t see how Meta can’t win that fight.

Show threadHynek SchlawackJul 7, 2023
@florimond @zsol I expect Meta to make it obnoxious (~Twitter with 3rd party clients), but the bigger risk for the fediverse is that ppl jump ship before Meta federates. Fortunately the EU is protecting us. 🤪
Show threadFlorimond Manca (en)Jul 7, 2023

@hynek @zsol Hmm. Arguably there's other aspects to it, too.

Eg the LGBTQIA+ community, and trans people in particular, have legitimate reasons to be concerned about federating with a huge virtual instance that would bring Twitter-like (trans-hateful) content en masse to Mastodon. [0]

Is there a way for this flood not to happen except from instances blocking the Threads instance? Then bye bye "talking to normies" again.

[0]: https://octodon.social/@siege/110668072301678301

CJ Bellwether (@[email protected])

Content warning: Meta Threads Trans Safety

the Octodon
Show threadFlorimond Manca (en)
@hynek @zsol You might have stumbled upon this post, too, a few weeks back? https://ploum.net/2023-06-23-how-to-kill-decentralised-networks.html
How to Kill a Decentralised Network (such as the Fediverse)

How to Kill a Decentralised Network (such as the Fediverse) par Ploum - Lionel Dricot.

Jul 7, 2023 at 7:41amWeb
Show threadHynek SchlawackJul 7, 2023
@florimond @zsol that article is based on a false premise. It wasn’t Google (or Facebook) who killed XMPP. It was WhatsApp.