OK, long running #Ukraine thread from the other site (https://twitter.com/reedmideke/status/1492238848088182784) continues here.
Mostly me tracking noteworthy events for myself with a side of ill-informed commentary and a healthy dose of mocking propagandists
A *large* crater near Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield in Krasnodar region 🤔
Odd since Ukraine has been pretty strict about not using western missiles on Russian territory and isn't known to have domestic long range weapons of this size
Possibly a ditched Russian bomb or failed missile, which has happened before
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1675531377146462210
Before the #Ukraine invasion, western intelligence reported the Russians had lists of people to capture or kill. Guardian reports on how they've arbitrarily detained, tortured and killed those who fought Russian proxy forces after 2014
This June was meant to be all about the great Ukrainian counteroffensive. After months of waiting, dozens of public statements from exasperated Ukrainian officials bound to silence, and even more analyses from experts and commentators in the media, the moment finally came when Ukrainian soldiers on their Leopards and Bradleys
Russian propagandists ramping up increasingly unhinged yet specific rhetoric about #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant 😬
Claim #Ukraine is going to attack it makes no sense, but unclear if it's just fearmongering by the Russians or they are planning something
https://mastodon.social/@kevinrothrock@infosec.exchange/110657873673378473
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky says that the Russian military has placed “objects resembling explosives” on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Possible location of that crater near Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield #Russia 46.058, 38.211, line of utility poles just north seems to match images from the scene
Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment. Ukrainian National
In late June, 16 months into the full-scale Russian invasion, President Volodymyr Zelensky alerted his nation of an unprecedented threat. Russia, the president said, had rigged the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with explosives, and was ready to set off the charges and cause radiation to leak into surrounding areas.
#Prigozhin / #Wagner saga continues to be bizarre
Lukashenko says Prigozhin is in St Petersburg
Peskov, asked about it, absurdly says “We do not have the desire nor the capability to” monitor the movements of a guy who … *checks notes* … recently sent his private army to attack the capital and shot down multiple aircraft
Seen a lot of talk about what allowing Azovstal commanders to leave says about Erdoğan's relations with Russia, but not much about implications for future exchanges. Hundreds are still held, some facing sham trials
On July 8, Azovstal commanders returned to Ukraine from Turkey. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Turkey and Ukraine of breaking the terms of the agreement that freed the commanders from Russian captivity.
Welp, I guess this take of mine (https://twitter.com/reedmideke/status/1672504330383945728) aged poorly "Not only was Yevgeny Prigozhin not clapped in irons and hauled off to the police station for his rebellion.
It's now emerged that five days later he was in the Kremlin, together with his commanders, sitting round the table and chatting with President Putin."
#Opsec tip of the day brought to you by recently assassinated Russian submarine commander Stanislav Rzhitsky who reportedly "had profile on Strava, where he posted his runs and bike rides" and was shot while out jogging
https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1678513332574191617
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-deputy-chief-krasnodar-shot-dead-/32497651.html#0_8_10089_8766_2710_249232399
Meanwhile, a reminder that coups in nuclear weapons states aren't all fun and games 😬
"as rebellious Wagner forces drove north toward Moscow on June 24, a contingent of military vehicles diverted east on a highway in the direction of a fortified Russian army base that holds nuclear weapons, according to videos posted online and interviews with local residents"
As rebellious Wagner forces drove north toward Moscow on June 24, a contingent of military vehicles diverted east on a highway in the direction of a fortified Russian army base that holds nuclear weapons, according to videos posted online and interviews with local residents.
HUR head Budanov "said Wagner fighters went far further… and that their intention was to acquire small Soviet-era nuclear devices in order to "raise the stakes" in their mutiny"
(Budanov says some wild stuff on occasion, OTOH reuters got level of corroboration from other sources)
Reed Mideke
simonbp