Watch SpaceX Starship SN15 land in slow motion, 4K!

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The first #Falcon 9 🚀 #landing succeeded in December 📆 2015. #SpaceX performed its 200th #rocket #booster landing 📆 June 13 2023.

When do you expect the 3rd successful #Starship landing (with booster) ?

2024
26.7%
2025
40%
2026
16.7%
2027
16.7%
Poll ended at .
Failure before MaxQ
24.8%
Successful MECO (after hot staging)
35.8%
Reaching orbit
28.4%
Successful reentry & splashdown
11%
Poll ended at .
SpaceX’s 2nd Starship Test Has a 60% Chance of Success

SpaceX is implementing 'well over a thousand changes' to its next Starship prototype.

Observer
@spaceflight no option for "spectacular fireworks on the pad"?
@arrowdrive isn't that "before MaxQ" ? 🤔
@spaceflight hmm I suppose. To me that reads more as in the air though :)

@spaceflight I think the main failures last time were the lost engines and TVC, causing the uncontrolled spin. It sounds like they're addressing those with better engine reliability and electric instead of hydraulic TVC.

I think that means the next big failure point will be stage separation. Without knowing how they'll shield the 1st stage or what the release mechanisms are, I probably would have voted for "failure during stage sep" if that was an option.

@shnonks unfortunately those polls are restricted to 4 options
@spaceflight no worries. Even if you had 20 options, I'm sure some nerd (👋) would find a way to nitpick.
I expect #Starship to make MECO and maybe orbit. I am not an expert, but I have been watching for quite some time. Visited Starbase several times. Exciting to see the progress. Break, fix, learn, and improve.
@spaceflight