Pwnallthethings

As a general rule, coups either coopt major parts of state force to either join in or sit out the conflict in the first few hours or fail quickly, as everyone defaults back to the mean of the status quo ante of state retaining control.

Prigozhin's coup attempt so far has failed to get any declared or ambiguous support, and MOD, FSB, GRU, Rosgvardia, and State media sided with Putin

So for folks thinking this coup will be successful, the chances are very, very strongly against that from here

Jun 23, 2023 at 11:33pmWeb
Show threadPwnallthethingsJun 23, 2023
Substantially weakens Putin's control either way; but this does not have any of the hallmarks that would make it a closer call.
Show threadJ Λ M Ξ SJun 23, 2023
@Pwnallthethings maybe a coup isnt the goal. maybe inspiring an assassination is easier?
Show threadriffleJun 23, 2023
@Pwnallthethings And hopefully breaks a few teacups.
Show threadYurkshireLadJun 24, 2023
@Pwnallthethings if he’s blaming Shoigu and the oligarchs for the war, but not Putin, maybe he’s giving old poots a way out of the war. Is he blaming Putin though, I’m seeing different opinions.
Show threadThe Animal and the MachineJun 23, 2023

@Pwnallthethings @DataDrivenMD
What we have here is a game of thrones. Good points but neutrality is expected. It’s just a case of how quickly Prigozhin can get to Moscow.

It doesn’t matter if Putin hides in a bunker, it really is about the throne. Prigozhin needs to appear to be in charge.

Show threadtoxtethogradyJun 23, 2023
@Pwnallthethings Given that Prigozhin was key to Trump winning election in 2016, his possible departure from the scene is not helpful to MAGA Nation in 2024. Even if Putin prevails, Wagner may no longer be acting in Russia's interest, especially on the spying and hacking front...
Show threadSereneJun 24, 2023
@Pwnallthethings It's wild to watch, though. Especially the Telegram talk. And regardless of the result it's an interesting symptom.
Show threadRowena PelayoJun 24, 2023
@Pwnallthethings What will the destruction of Wagner do to the war effort?
Show threadkevinJun 24, 2023
@Pwnallthethings gotta say though, he’s got bawwwelz.
Show threadVHaschJun 24, 2023

@Pwnallthethings

But it's great theater. 🤷‍♀️

Show threadgh0sti Jun 24, 2023
@Pwnallthethings so no swan lake tonight.
Show threadChookMother 🇦🇺🦘Jun 24, 2023
@Pwnallthethings Historically, either the police or the military have to be onside, but this can happen spontaneously, as with the fall of the Marcos regime and the fall of the Berlin wall.